WEEKEND ESTIMATES | 05.08.15 - 05.10.15

[druv10]

Lol guys, this is not hitting 500m.

500? It's going to have trouble hitting 450M.

[baumer]

I enjoyed AOU from start to finish, there're some boring parts here and there but I felt greatly satisfied when I finished it.

 

FF7 was very fun, such an over the top entertainment, but the last 5 mins let it down and that left me with a sour taste.

 

Plus AOU had way more likable characters.

 

I thought both were incredibly flawed but F7 was a better flawed movie.

[keysersoze123]

It could go either way on 450m. I would say range is 440-480m. So missing 450m is low end of the range.

[baumer]

It could go either way on 450m. I would say range is 440-480m. So missing 450m is low end of the range.

 

I think the difference this time (among many many other factors) is that in 2012, Avengers was the competition, now it will be facing all kinds of competition.  Which obviously means legs will not be nearly as good.  So 450 might be tough.  

[POTUS 2020]

Yeah, I'm sure Disney and MARVEL are really disappointed with the amount of $$$$ this has made thus far... Baumer's right: Some of you need to pull your head out of your asses and think about that for a moment.. Why would this company be upset or disappointed in making over 700M WW and when China gets this on the 12th, it'll be more than enough to hit 1Billion...

You bet they're upset. They, like many people here, were looking for an increase in BO and probably priced it in to their earnings forecast which will now come up short 100-200m or a few cents per share which is huge.

 

For example when Frozen out performed by a few 100m it actually increased the earnings by a few cents for 2 quarters and the stock went up(they gave Frozen credit for the earnings beat). Not to mention that this could be portending a downward trend in BO for TA3 and others in the MU  which in turn becomes less pennies per share down the road. Lionsgate fell when HG3 missed its OW expectations, you think they were happy that the stock fell 10% even though HG3 made 750m at a cost of 125m +P/A?  Believe me, somebody is screaming at somebody in the boardroom this week and there are a few nervous people looking over their shoulder. No cause for celebration there.

 

Corporations are never happy unless there is more this time than last time and next time is forecasted to be bigger or heads will roll, period

[Silentknifezz]

You bet they're upset. They, like many people here, were looking for an increase in BO and probably priced it in to their earnings forecast which will now come up short 100-200m or a few cents per share which is huge.

 

For example when Frozen out performed by a few 100m it actually increased the earnings by a few cents for 2 quarters and the stock went up(they gave Frozen credit for the earnings beat). Not to mention that this could be portending a downward trend in BO for TA3 and others in the MU  which in turn becomes less pennies per share down the road. Lionsgate fell when HG3 missed its OW expectations, you think they were happy that the stock fell 10% even though HG3 made 750m at a cost of 125m +P/A?  Believe me, somebody is screaming at somebody in the boardroom this week and there are a few nervous people looking over their shoulder. No cause for celebration there.

 

Corporations are never happy unless there is more this time than last time and next time is forecasted to be bigger or heads will roll, period

meh

[McNerdy]

You bet they're upset. They, like many people here, were looking for an increase in BO and probably priced it in to their earnings forecast which will now come up short 100-200m or a few cents per share which is huge.

 

For example when Frozen out performed by a few 100m it actually increased the earnings by a few cents for 2 quarters and the stock went up(they gave Frozen credit for the earnings beat). Not to mention that this could be portending a downward trend in BO for TA3 and others in the MU  which in turn becomes less pennies per share down the road. Lionsgate fell when HG3 missed its OW expectations, you think they were happy that the stock fell 10% even though HG3 made 750m at a cost of 125m +P/A?  Believe me, somebody is screaming at somebody in the boardroom this week and there are a few nervous people looking over their shoulder. No cause for celebration there.

 

Corporations are never happy unless there is more this time than last time and next time is forecasted to be bigger or heads will roll, period

Hmm, well if SW7 out performes (which may happen) this could make up for the "relative loss" from AoU.

[baumer]

You bet they're upset. They, like many people here, were looking for an increase in BO and probably priced it in to their earnings forecast which will now come up short 100-200m or a few cents per share which is huge.

 

For example when Frozen out performed by a few 100m it actually increased the earnings by a few cents for 2 quarters and the stock went up(they gave Frozen credit for the earnings beat). Not to mention that this could be portending a downward trend in BO for TA3 and others in the MU  which in turn becomes less pennies per share down the road. Lionsgate fell when HG3 missed its OW expectations, you think they were happy that the stock fell 10% even though HG3 made 750m at a cost of 125m +P/A?  Believe me, somebody is screaming at somebody in the boardroom this week and there are a few nervous people looking over their shoulder. No cause for celebration there.

 

Corporations are never happy unless there is more this time than last time and next time is forecasted to be bigger or heads will roll, period

 

If Disney expected this to make more than the first, then they should fire those people who sent out that forecast.  I seriously doubt they did think that.  Avengers was the zeitgeist film.  You can compare it to JAWS.  When Richard Zanuck was doing behind the scenes stuff for the JAWS 2 DVD, he said that when they made the sequel they had hoped to do less than half of  the original.  Producers and executives are not as dumb as make them out to be.  There was no chance that AOU was going to do more than Avengers and this is coming from one of the avergage predictors at this site.  But all the signs were there of a fall.  Just because the loonies didn't see it doesn't mean the rest of the business world did.

Edited May 10, 2015 by baumer

[baumer]

Hmm, well if SW7 out performes (which may happen) this could make up for the "relative loss" from AoU.

 

What loss?  Come on guys.  A film that makes whatever AOU is going to make is far from a loss.  

[Deathlife]

If Disney expected this to make more than the first, then they should fire those people who sent out that forecast.  I seriously doubt they did think that.  Avengers was the zeitgeist film.  You can compare it to JAWS.  When Richard Zanuck was doing behind the scenes stuff for the JAWS 2 DVD, he said that when they made the sequel they had hoped to do less than half the original.  Producers and executives are as dumb as make them out to be.  There was no chance that AOU was going to do more than Avengers and this is coming from one of the avergage predictors at this site.  But all the signs were there of a fall.  Just because the loonies didn't see it doesn't mean the rest of the business world did.

This.

Expecting this movie to outperform the first one was totally unrealistic.

The first Avengers was an event, the second one wasn't going to be.

[JJ-8]

Anything think it was doom and gloom the way some here are talking down AOU...

 

I am disappointed no doubting that... really thought 500m was happening.  But realistically, it shouldn't be surprising.  TA as many have said was a lighting in a bottle moment that is very very hard to repeat.

 

SW7 might well get that moment but that's in a different place to what AOU was even though both are sequels.  

 

A Film will make what is supposed to make irrelevant of what we want to it to make.  440m to 480m which appears where this is heading still is fine.  Consider it still was the 2nd biggest OW ever in the US and it's 2nd weekend will also be the 2nd biggest weekend or should be just above the current number 2.  And people ar ecomplaining because it's not matching to the film which is number 1 and which it is a sequel too? lol

[Cynosure]

Just a reminder, Disney gets about 45-50% of the share from DOM, 40-45% of the share from OS but 20-25% of the share from China.

 

Assuming 450M DOM, 300M and 750M OS, that means they get between 562.5M and 637.5M.

 

That's really not that much above the budget which is likely underestimated. Far from the amount the 'it made 1.5M WW' would let you expect.

Edited May 10, 2015 by Cynosure

[kayumanggi]

This.

Expecting this movie to outperform the first one was totally unrealistic.

The first Avengers was an event, the second one wasn't going to be.

 

Come on, AOU isn't an event movie? Yes, it was bound to decrease but it's no way not an event movie. The reason why many are viewing this as a disappointment (though 450 M is still a big number) is because even though many of us here thought it would decrease, no one really thought it would finish with 'only' 450 M. If people think 450 M is a great number then they should have predicted 450 M. Most predicted between 500 M and 560 M. Why? Because we knew it was possible. We were wrong of course.

 

Just imagine this making less than TDKR. Crazy.

[Deathlife]

Come on, AOU isn't an event movie? Yes, it was bound to decrease but it's no way not an event movie. The reason why many are viewing this as a disappointment (though 450 M is still a big number) is because even though many of us here thought it would decrease, no one really thought it would finish with 'only' 450 M. If people think 450 M is a great number then they should have predicted 450 M. Most predicted between 500 M and 560 M. Why? Because we knew it was possible. We were wrong of course.

 

Just imagine this making less than TDKR. Crazy.

Making less than TDKR is insane. I never saw that happening. I predict $210M/$525M but it's obviously going to go way below that.

When I said event movie, I meant the novelty of assembling different franchises and heroes together for the first time.AOU was a blockbuster action sequel without the novelty.

$450M+ is actually a great number but when you consider everything, I thought it would make more.

[vc2002]

450m total means attendance-wise, AOU is pretty much as big as TF2 no?

[vc2002]

450m total means attendance-wise, AOU is pretty much as big as TF2 no?

[The47th]

This.

Expecting this movie to outperform the first one was totally unrealistic.

The first Avengers was an event, the second one wasn't going to be.

 

 

If Disney expected this to make more than the first, then they should fire those people who sent out that forecast.  I seriously doubt they did think that.  Avengers was the zeitgeist film.  You can compare it to JAWS.  When Richard Zanuck was doing behind the scenes stuff for the JAWS 2 DVD, he said that when they made the sequel they had hoped to do less than half of  the original.  Producers and executives are not as dumb as make them out to be.  There was no chance that AOU was going to do more than Avengers and this is coming from one of the avergage predictors at this site.  But all the signs were there of a fall.  Just because the loonies didn't see it doesn't mean the rest of the business world did.

 

 

All of this is plain damage control and stands in the border of rewriting history. It was very normal to expect this to make similar numbers to the first one, considering how TA made the Marvel properties to explode BO wise, and that's why most of predictions here did that. You coud make a very good argument about this not reaching the DOM total of the first one, but all logic says at the very least it should have improved the opening numbers, considering the large portion of the GA who have turned fans of the Marvel Studios properties since 2012.

 

The Avengers was not a 'Jaws' type of hit. The MCU puts a lot of effort in linking every entry in a way that the public is pushed to watch all films as if they were part of a single story.

[baumer]

Just a reminder, Disney gets about 45-50% of the share from DOM, 40-45% of the share from OS but 20-25% of the share from China.

 

Assuming 450M DOM, 300M and 750M OS, that means they get between 562.5M and 637.5M.

 

That's really not that much above the budget which is likely underestimated. Far from the amount the 'it made 1.5M WW' would let you expect.

But its been like this for years. And they would have taken all this in consideration already.

[kayumanggi]

I am also assuming Disney didn't expect 'only' 450 M from this. But who cares since this is still making tons of money.

 

I think BVS could be really big but after that, we need to have our predictions for the sequels and spin offs in check. AOU has taught us a very good lesson.

 

I am not saying though that all these sequels are bound to decrease. I'm sure there'll be surprises along the way.

[kswiston]

I think people are starting to get ahead of themselves in the pessimism. After this weekend, AoU gets pretty close to $440 if it just makes exactly the same amount as Iron Man 3 did coming out of its second weekend, and Iron Man 3 had pretty bad drops during its 3rd-5th weekends. I think that less competition this May will see the movies start to separate in coming weeks. Obviously $500M isn't happening, but I don't think $450M is in danger.