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K1stpierre

Jurassic World Weekend Thread | Official Est. 204.6M | 208.8M - Actuals

By K1stpierre, in Numbers and Data

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

Posted
Posted

wonder if 65-76 m will be reached tonight. Wow. Someone posted abc predicts 225m

ABC has no idea what they are saying. 225M is impossible. The most it can do is barely beat the OW record with 207-210M, and I highly doubt that as well. I just want it to be the 2nd movie ever to reach 200M on OW.

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superduperm Box Office Gold

superduperm

Posted
Posted

Still trying to comprehend what's going on. A potential OW record by JW when everyone predicted AOU to do it? Reminds me when TA1 broke it when everyone expected TDKR to do so.

That said, in order to break the OW record, it needs about $70M today, which has never happened. So let's not celebrate yet.

But man, an OW record in June? It's been 20 years!

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

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I was harsh on Rth devotees during (not that he gives a shit about my or anyone else's opinion the professional that he is) AOU but guy nailed OD yesterday. Really excited for whatever # he brings out for today.

 

Problem was not RTH but AOU :P it just kept going below trends. RTH provides trends based on previous data. But movies need to hold well. During its OW and 2nd friday AOU trend kept going down.

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Mitch Sleeper Hit

Mitch

Posted
Posted

She really wanted to watch this movie...

 

 

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

 

they must have overloaded the circuits from playing so many films of JW at once, lol

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ExcelFTW Box Office Gold

ExcelFTW

Posted
Posted (edited)

The opening record never lasts long. The record has been broken 23 times since Jaws in 1975, and no one has held it for more than 4.5 years. 

 

I could see the record going down a number of times in the next 3 years, sort of like what happened in 2006 to 2008. 

 

This is a total different topic. Whatever a films maximum potemntial is is always changing.

 

1989

-Indy sets record at 29.5 record

-Ghostbusters 2 sets new record 29.6

-Batman sets new record of 42.5 the following week, an absurd increase of 37% in just a 1 week span.

 

1992

-Batman Returns hits 43 million, a new record

 

1993

-Jurassic Park hits 47 million a new record

 

1995

-Batman Forever does 50 million, a new record

 

In 6 years, the record from 29.5 million to 50 million

 

1996

-Independence Day opens on a Wednesday, still does 50 million Fri-Sun and 96m 5 day. Noteworthy discussion of "How much would ID4 have done had it not blown off $46 million worth of steam on Wed and Thursday?

 

Takeaway: the "record" is still Batman Forever's 50 Million, but it's clear the right property can do A LOT more. Que

 

1997

-Lost World opens to 72 million, a ridiculous 44% increase over the previous record.

 

In 5 years, the record has gone from 43 million to 72 million, an increase of 70%.

 

The record would have been strongly challenged by Episode 1 in 1999.

 

2001

-Harry Potter opens to 90 million. Large increase over the original, deafening buzz - many think this is the top of the mountain at this point. Wrong.

 

2002

-Spider-man opens to 114 million. Just destroy Potters newly minted record, but wise analysts knew it was possible.

 

In 5 years, the record has gone 72 million to 114 million. An increase of 35%. Screens continued to develop at a fast rate, so folks should known it was still possible.

 

As of 2002, BATMAN, ID4, and now SPIDER-MAN marked the closest to "maximum capacity" film had seen. But then...

 

2003

-The rated R MATRIX RELOADED does 134m 4 day with a Thursday opening. The movie WOULD have topped Spider-man ridiculous $114 million if it had opened on a Friday, AND it would have done while beiong rated R! Again, more hints there is still room to grow.

 

2004

-Spidey 2 opens on a Wednesday, missing his shot.

 

2005

-Sith opens to 50 million on a Thursday and does 158m 5 day. Wise analysts determine it would have done 130-135ish with a Friday opening.

 

2006

-Pirates opens to that number - 135m. Most think this # will last for a while, unless it is barely topped.

 

In 5 years, the record has gone from 90m to 135.

 

2007

-Spider-man goes kaboom again to the tune of 151 million opening weekend. Most assume this is kind of like ID4 or Batman or what Matrix would have done at PG-13. This is the most.

 

2008

-The Dark Knight breaks the record for the 4th time in 6th movies. $158 million, widely regarded as the most attended opening weekend ever,

 

We entered the 3D era which changed everything heavily as films like HARRY POTTER and AVENGERS were selling 53% of their tickets at a price 25% higher than the usual ticket.

 

The incredible amount of movie theaters and screens which arose from the late 80s through the early 2000s is why the record was able to imore than double from 29m in early 1989 to 72 in 1997. It's why it doubled again in the 7 years from 1995 to 2002. It doubled again in the 11 1/2 years from 2001 to 2012, but that had 3D so it's tough to say.

 

The # of theaters and screens is not blowing up any more (if anything it's shrinking) and 3D attendance is only decling. So even though Avengers record is now 3 years old, don't expect it to be broken a bunch of times in the coming years.

 

The question to ask is whether films like Avengers or Jurassic World represent truly max capacity movies ala The Dark Knight or Independence Day or Lost World, or do they represent movies like Spider-man 3 or Harry Potter which seem huge but are ready to get crushed.

 

JURASSIC WORLD will challenge the record while having a shitload of spillover business. What do you think will happen when there are more showtimes next time?

 

STAR WARS is blowing our chance to get a real good read at what it's opening weekend potential is by opening in fucking December, which makes it's opening weekend much less exciting for analysts like us as we know no records will fall. Its obvious Marvel isn't going to do it again. Avengers 2 was clearly going to be their best chance and didnt come close.

 

If JURASSIC WORLD does break it, it won't be by much. And that # will hold for years unless BVS does something about it next March. There's nothing else with that ype of potential.

Edited by ExcelFTW
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redfirebird2008 Global Phenomenon

redfirebird2008

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Posted

I was harsh on Rth devotees during (not that he gives a shit about my or anyone else's opinion the professional that he is) AOU but guy nailed OD yesterday. Really excited for whatever # he brings out for today.

 

Last night was very similar to TA1. Media said 65 and the totals both ended up over 80 when it was said and done. Rth of course was the only one who understood the real time data and didn't throw out bullshit numbers super early for the hell of it. I think he was probably more surprised by JP4 judging by the amount of jizz comments from him, lol.

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Kalel009Shel Global Phenomenon

Kalel009Shel

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Posted

ABC has no idea what they are saying. 225M is impossible. The most it can do is barely beat the OW record with 207-210M, and I highly doubt that as well. I just want it to be the 2nd movie ever to reach 200M on OW.

not saying its impossible. Rem todays ticket prices you only need 18 m fans paying alot of 3d and premium tickets to get to 215-225m. So it is possible. Def feel 210-214 more likely if it goes uber.
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