Weekend Estimates: JW: 102 IO 91...RTH: Sun JW 38.3 | IO 25.3 with possible upsides PG 287, possible 107M for JW weekend

[PDC1987]

Omg I really want Inside Out to get to 100M!  How likely is to get there? 

It would have to increase on Sunday.

[The Futurist]

103,052,274

SORRY,

BLUE & REXY

Edited June 21, 2015 by The Futurist

[Empire]

Omg I really want Inside Out to get to 100M!  How likely is to get there?

Not very. Should be low to mid 90s which is still fantastic!

[eXtacy]

Omg I really want Inside Out to get to 100M!  How likely is to get there? 

 

Sorry but its impossible. Its looking at low 90's

[Chewy]

Omg I really want Inside Out to get to 100M!  How likely is to get there? 

 

Not very likely.

[Mango]

Low $90s is fucking amazing though. that's waaaaaay above the 2006-2013 openings for them, TS3 being the exception of course.

Adjusted its on par with their best.

Edited June 21, 2015 by Mango

[DeeCee]

As long as JW is IO + $15m I'm good.

[kayumanggi]

AMERICAN SNIPER

 

-opened with 107.2 M on a 4-day weekend

-has now made 350.1 M

 

FIFTY SHADES OF GREY

 

-made 85.2 M on its first three days

-will probably end up as the year's biggest R18 film (excluding AS)

 

KINGSMAN: THE SECRET SERVICE

 

-opened strong even with FSOG dominating

-more than a 3x multiplier!

 

HOME

 

-opened surprisingly well (52.1 M) even after all the doom and gloom talk lol

-has surpassed some of DW sequels and spinoffs

 

FURIOUS 7

 

-gave Universal its first ever 100 M opening (147.2 M)

-has now made 350 M domestic

-is currently the biggest film for 2015 worldwide

-third biggest overseas gross ever

 

AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON

 

-opened with a huge 191.3 M

-has now earned 447.3 M

-is currently the second biggest film for 2015 worldwide

 

PITCH PERFECT II

 

-opened with 69.2 M, beyond the most optimistic expectations

-has now earned 175.4 M

 

MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

 

-opened well (45.4 M) despite placing second to PP II

-more than a 3x multiplier!

 

SAN ANDREAS

 

-banked 54.6 M on its first three days, higher than most expectations

-doing relatively well despite heavy competition

-has now made 126.2 M

 

JURASSIC WORLD

 

-a record-breaking monster (no more explanations)

 

INSIDE OUT

 

-another record-breaker (history has been made)

[Jack]

This says Rth is wrong (in who do we trust?) and seems dubious of any Father's Day bump for JW.

Deadline kept understating JW's OW (not out of any noticeable animosity or pessimism, though) and I'm hoping they did so here, too.

I suspect deadline got numbers from Studio estimates. And Studios got numbers from rth. That's why rth is more accurate while Studios will try to fudge or play safe by going with the higher or lower end of the range. (so far Universal has been playing safe with JW)

[melissahhh]

Not very. Should be low to mid 90s which is still fantastic!

 

Yeah it is! Which is great cause I totally loved this movie. It had me ballin my eyes out.

[kayumanggi]

My goodness. Look at those openings. Wait for INSIDE OUT and the rest of the year (SPECTRE, THG: MJ II and SW: TFA)

 

1	Jurassic World	Uni.	$208,806,270	64.2%	4,274	$48,855	$325,212,000	6/12/15
2	Avengers: Age of Ultron	BV	$191,271,109	42.8%	4,276	$44,731	$447,288,953	5/1/15
3	Furious 7	Uni.	$147,187,040	41.9%	4,004	$36,760	$351,032,910	4/3/15
4	American Sniper	WB	$89,269,066	25.5%	3,555	$25,111	$350,118,902	1/16/15
5	Fifty Shades of Grey	Uni.	$85,171,450	51.3%	3,646	$23,360	$166,167,230	2/13/15
6	Pitch Perfect 2	Uni.	$69,216,890	39.5%	3,473	$19,930	$175,364,000	5/15/15
7	Cinderella (2015)	BV	$67,877,361	34.0%	3,845	$17,653	$199,488,593	3/13/15
8	The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water	Par.	$55,365,012	34.0%	3,641	$15,206	$162,994,032	2/6/15
9	San Andreas	WB	$54,588,173	43.3%	3,777	$14,453	$126,169,000	5/29/15
10	The Divergent Series: Insurgent	LG/S	$52,263,680	40.3%	3,875	$13,487	$129,693,892	3/20/15
11	Home (2015)	Fox	$52,107,731	30.0%	3,708	$14,053	$173,672,542	3/27/15
12	Mad Max: Fury Road	WB	$45,428,128	32.1%	3,702	$12,271	$141,507,000	5/15/15

 

[BoxOfficeZ]

Deadline thinks it'll fall 15%? Umm....Fathers Day Deadline? Forget about that? 

[DeeCee]

2014 only had 15 films open over $50m.

[kayumanggi]

2014 only had 15 films open over $50m.

 

It only had two making more than 100 M, one of which was apparently fudged. lol

[Mango]

AMERICAN SNIPER

-opened with 107.2 M on a 4-day weekend

-has now made 350.1 M

FIFTY SHADES OF GREY

-made 85.2 M on its first three days

-will probably end up as the year's biggest R18 film (excluding AS)

KINGSMAN: THE SECRET SERVICE

-opened strong even with FSOG dominating

-more than a 3x multiplier!

HOME

-opened surprisingly well (52.1 M) even after all the doom and gloom talk lol

-has surpassed some of DW sequels and spinoffs

FURIOUS 7

-gave Universal its first ever 100 M opening (147.2 M)

-has now made 350 M domestic

-is currently the biggest film for 2015 worldwide

-third biggest overseas gross ever

AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON

-opened with a huge 191.3 M

-has now earned 447.3 M

-is currently the second biggest film for 2015 worldwide

PITCH PERFECT II

-opened with 69.2 M, beyond the most optimistic expectations

-has now earned 175.4 M

MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

-opened well (45.4 M) despite placing second to PP II

-more than a 3x multiplier!

SAN ANDREAS

-banked 54.6 M on its first three days, higher than most expectations

-doing relatively well despite heavy competition

-has now made 126.2 M

JURASSIC WORLD

-a record-breaking monster (no more explanations)

INSIDE OUT

-another record-breaker (history has been made)

And we're only halfway through the year.

[Quigley]

I suspect deadline got numbers from Studio estimates. And Studios got numbers from rth. That's why rth is more accurate while Studios will try to fudge or play safe by going with the higher or lower end of the range. (so far Universal has been playing safe with JW)

 

This weekend was different from last one. Everyone overestimated JW and underestimated IO on Friday. Historical comps suggest the 34% increase is reasonable for a pre-Father's Day Saturday. What I do think they're underestimating is the Sunday drop. I think it could even be -5%.

[DeeCee]

29 + 40 + 37 = 106

 

Does that sound about right?

[TacoBell]

sooo who's wrong here RTH or deadline?

[kayumanggi]

And we're only halfway through the year.

 

True. This has been an amazing year. I'm also optimistic for next year.

 

March

BATMAN V SUPERMAN: DAWN OF JUSTICE

 

May

CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR

X-MEN: APOCALYPSE

 

June

WARCRAFT

FINDING DORY

INDEPENDENCE DAY II

 

July

STAR TREK III

 

August

SUICIDE SQUAD

 

November

DR. STRANGE

FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM

 

December

ROGUE ONE

[MrFanaticGuy34]

sooo who's wrong here RTH or deadline?

Deadline, I suppose.