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Weekend Thread JW 54.2M, hits 500 | IO 52M | pg 99

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Any idea what JW is looking to finish at WW? Considering it was released almost everywhere at exactly the same time, along with its US gross, I thought it'd be a bit higher by now.

 

610+955= 1565m$ WW ?

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So far we have 3 movies from 2015 that would have outgrossed 2014s biggest movie (that made 99% of its money in 2015), with the possibility of at least 4 more movies surpassing it as well (Inside Out, Minions, Mockingjay 2, Star Wars)

There's also a moderate to slight chance all of these movies have a crack at going for 300m (all of them have good to great 200m chances)

Spectre - 50%, it could ride the success of Skyfall or Skyfall may be the peak, it's a crackshot. 90% it makes 200m

The Good Dinosaur - 20%, this would have been lower earlier, but Inside Out broke out huge and it could easily ride the waves of both it and Jurassic World's success. Plus there is an open december all the way to Star Wars (which would very likely double feature the Good Dinosaur with it). 85% it makes 200m

Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation - 5%, It hasn't been getting much attention, so the aim should be Ghost Protocol. But it has a good spot to leg out in a fairly weak August. 60% It makes 200m

Ant-Man - I'd say around 5% if it pulls a Guardians, very unlikely. 60% it makes 200m

Pixels - 5%, it's a unique comedy that could pull in the late summer attention, 2015 has shown audiences are looking for fresh franchises (or old, nostalgic reinvented ones that are making their comeback). 50% it makes 200m

The Peanuts Movie - 5%, it is a nostalgic film and has a good distance from the last family one giving it room to breakout in a year that's been great for both mediums. 45% it makes 200m

Terminator: Genisys - 5%, it could break out similar to Jurassic World (not as big obviously), and has gained a lot of attention. It's more likely it'll be moderate (150-200m) 40% it makes 200m

The record for most 300m movies in a year is 5 from 2012, it's pretty much inevitable this year ends with at least 6-7. The record for most 300m movies adjusted is 6 (back in 2004), which makes it highly likely that 2015 can set the record for most 300m movies actual and adjusted ever.

$150-200m is moderate now??

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$150-200m is moderate now??

When 15-20 films a year are doing $150 million+ DOM, that isn't exactly a mega-hit unless the budget was $2 million.

This year is huge

1. American Sniper

2. Cinderella

3. Furious 7

4. Avengers 2

5. Jurassic World

6. Inside Out

7. Minions

8. Ant-Man

9. Pixels

10. MI5

11. The Martian

12. Spectre

13. Peanuts

14. Mockingjay Part 2

15. Good Dinosaur

16. Star Wars Episode VII

All of which (5-16) have at least a relatively decent shot at $200 million DOM. 6 of them could do $300 million+ DOM beyond the initial 4. A top 10 with all $300 million+ grossers. Would be mind boggling...

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Yea we make it every two days usually, every 3 when it's slow. Just pink and blue, but for Minions we're going to start doing yellow, but I'm kind of excited for Pixels because we're doing the "4 flavors in one bag" to represent like, the ghosts in Pac-Man, that might look cool.

 

 

I'm glad that you like your job, but after a while all of this stuff will not be that exciting anymore. After being in the theatre bizz 10 years this month, when we get a new item I normally just sigh and think to myself "damit". Movie part is fun, but even that wears thin after a while.

 

Yep buzz kill, and over all its a fun job to have as a teen.

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Is 3x the 3rd weekend too improbable? Cause it should go beyond Titanic then.

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Jurassic World's success shows 3 things:

 

1) You can't predict the box office. There is so much information out there, but no one is consistently predicting the box office correctly. There's just no way to gauge what will catch on.

 

2) Franchises are where the big money is. This is why studios concentrate so much on franchises. This is why there is sequel after sequel and prequel after prequel. Franchises are what the majority of movie-goers want to see.

 

3) Disney really needs to make an Indiana Jones movie. An excellent Indiana Jones movie could do massive numbers at the box office.

Edited by Walt Disney
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Jurassic World's success shows 3 things:

1) You can't predict the box office. There is so much information out there, but no one is consistently predicting the box office correctly. There's just no way to gauge what will catch on.

2) Franchises are where the big money is. This is why studios concentrate so much on franchises. These is why there is sequel after sequel and prequel after prequel. Franchises are what people want to see.

3) Disney really needs to make an Indiana Jones movie. An excellent Indiana Jones movie could do massive numbers at the box office.

Yet the two highest grossing films of all time are Avatar and Titanic

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