keysersoze123 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Ehh weren't you the one saying 50 plus drop last weekend too? And couldn't increase from a 2.4 million Thursday to 4 million on Friday? Terminator Genisys will still likely be in over 2,500 screens that's plenty and is much more competition for Jurassic World than Terminator Genisys. If you haven't noticed already Terminator Genisys isn't getting much of a teen or early 20 something crowds that will go see something like Ant-Man. because of 2 week rule TG was able to hold on to screens last week. It did better than expected. We will know fur sure tomorrow. its 2 week is done. Even thursday show count will be lower. so I see 10%+ drop today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregBeuke Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 (edited) because of 2 week rule TG was able to hold on to screens last week. It did better than expected. We will know fur sure tomorrow. its 2 week is done. Even thursday show count will be lower. so I see 10%+ drop today. I expect Terminator Genisys to only do around 1.2 million on Thursday. But I think it will jump up to around 2.-2.2 million Friday, 2.8 million Saturday and 2 million Sunday. Like it or not, but Terminator Genisys isn't totally bombing out so there not going to pull that many screens so fast(800-1,200 I'm guessing). Yes it will lose a large number, but it's still going to be showing at most theaters every 2-3 hours at least. Going off my local theaters show-times this weekend, it seems like Jurassic World is taking a similar or slightly bigger hit in screen loses then Terminator Genisys this weekend. Overall I'm sure Genisys number will be higher(especially since it was already in 300 more screens then Jurassic World). But impact on both movies should be similar. Even though I think Ant-Man is more Jurassic World audience than the one that's been seeing Terminator. While the majority of the rest of Ant-Man screens will likely come from something like Max which was still playing on 2,000 screens this week. Edited July 16, 2015 by gb0708 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 TG will do $20.5M in its second week. It needs to have 45.7% weekly drops from here on to reach 100M. So if it can manage to drop 45% this week, I think it will comfortably get past 100M. If it drops 50% this week, it will need 41.8% drops thereafter to reach 100M. In such a scenario, it should still reach there, but it will be a crawl and might require a bit of fudge. If it drops 55% this week, it will need 37.6% drops thereafter to reach 100M, making it unlikely, but not impossible. Any drop bigger than that, and bye bye 100M. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregBeuke Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 TG will do $20.5M in its second week. It needs to have 45.7% weekly drops from here on to reach 100M. So if it can manage to drop 45% this week, I think it will comfortably get past 100M. If it drops 50% this week, it will need 41.8% drops thereafter to reach 100M. In such a scenario, it should still reach there, but it will be a crawl and might require a bit of fudge. If it drops 55% this week, it will need 37.6% drops thereafter to reach 100M, making it unlikely, but not impossible. Any drop bigger than that, and bye bye 100M. I think that is the most likely scenario. Unless it really starts to struggle over the next 10-11 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacoBell Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 (edited) nice for JW : could cross 600M DOM by Thursday ! Edited July 16, 2015 by TacoBell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 TG Wed 1.55M Thu 1.4M (-10%) Fri 2M (+40%) Sat 2.7M (+35%) Sun 2M (-30%) 6.7M being conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 nice for JW : could cross 600M DOM by Thursday ! It needs to stay flat. Difficult. If Gopher Wedns numbers were 2.3M... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kowan Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 nice for JW : could cross 600M DOM by Thursday ! It needs 2.2m+ for that to happen. Anything lower than that and its going to be 599m, so unfortunately it's not happening, unless a miracle happens and it actually goes up on thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 (edited) It's tough to imagine a 1st Friday for Minions smaller than 1st Tuesday(16.8). That hasn't happened for TS3, DM2, IO or Cars 2 for that matter. 11.5m Thu, 17(+47.8%) + 22.1(+30%) + 16.57(-25%) = 55.67m So 55m+ looks likely. Edited July 16, 2015 by a2k 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zackzack Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Yeah I just saw Edge of Tomorrow was at 96.6 million after it's 7th weekend last summer. Then it was kept on 100-400 screens for another 7-8 weeks to make it to 100 million as well. While studios want their movies to reach that important $100M milestone (advantageous in cable TV rights?), do they realize they are also giving up higher percentage of the gross revenue to the theaters as the movies play on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Infernus Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 - 34% for Minions?!? TOXIC WOM!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Epic drop for Minions lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Minions has been following IO's hold patterns fairly similarly so far, so I'm not sure why we're ruling out 60% Fri and 40% Sat increases like IO had its second weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 (edited) And lol at some of you trying to make it look like Minions is crumbling when no one said anything when IO had a first Wednesday drop that was only 5% lighter. Minions first Tuesday hold was 6% higher, so it evens out perfectly. They're having extremely similar first week holds, which is why Minions is probably in for only a 40-45% drop this weekend like IO's 2nd weekend. Edited July 16, 2015 by MovieMan89 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 And lol at some of you trying to make it look like Minions is crumbling when no one said anything when IO had a first Wednesday drop that was only 5% lighter. Minions first Tuesday hold was 6% higher, so it evens out perfectly. They're having extremely similar first week holds, which is why Minions is probably in for only a 40-45% drop this weekend like IO's 2nd weekend. Yea the bias against Minions here is getting a bit much. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abra Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 (edited) not completely In my opinion it was predictable Inside Out Tuesday + 24.1% Wednesday - 28.1% Minions they follow a similar path - 34% for Minions?!? TOXIC WOM!!! Edited July 16, 2015 by abra 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bladels Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 (edited) I think it's too early to judge Minions having good holds or bad ones. Some movies hold pretty well in their first 2 weeks then crash and burn in later weeks. On the other hand, some holds pretty terrible in the 1st week but have quite amazing late legs. Edited July 16, 2015 by bladels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Yea the bias against Minions here is getting a bit much. I mean I'm sure IO is a far better film than Minions (though I haven't seen the latter), but some here are acting like Minions is Batman and Robin. I'm sure it's just fine as a movie aimed at the 10 and under crowd. Not all animation has to be for everyone. The best ones are, but it's perfectly OK for there to be ones that are made squarely for kids now and then. I can't imagine it's on the level of awfulness of something like Shrek 3, and that dumb thing broke records that still stand. So it could be much worse. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 If it gets that close to 100M then WB will push it over 100M threshold, no question about it. They make substantial more TV money, if it hits 100M milestone. Paramount, not WB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tupek Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 (edited) And lol at some of you trying to make it look like Minions is crumbling when no one said anything when IO had a first Wednesday drop that was only 5% lighter. Minions first Tuesday hold was 6% higher, so it evens out perfectly. They're having extremely similar first week holds, which is why Minions is probably in for only a 40-45% drop this weekend like IO's 2nd weekend. Aren't July weekdays grosses bigger than those from June? With increases from Fridays to Saturdays smaller than in June... Edited July 16, 2015 by tupek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
