FINDING DORY | 542.3 M overseas ● 1028.6 M worldwide

[fabiopazzo2]

33 minutes ago, La Gazzetta Disney said:

The ticket price is the same! Actually, during summer there are some discounts! September is the right time to release the movie in Italy! Again, Inside Out insegna!

Ti parlo in italiano così faccio prima. È tutta una scusa perché le sale fanno schifo e molte volte sono senza aria condizionata in più non invogli la gente ad andare al cinema con film del caso

[cannastop]

2 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

Finding Dory fell only 35% in Argentina for its second week despite a very strong start there. Amazing!

 

People here love to talk about Japan or France/Europe to gauge its chances to reach $1B WW but I'm convinced the key to meet that goal is Latin America despite the crappy ER.

Its OW in Brazil and Mexico will be an important indicator.

You realize that UK+Japan did $240m for Toy Story 3, right? And that both of the currencies of those countries are weaker now than they were then?

[Planodisney]

So cannastop, your prediction is no way it can reach 1 billion WW.  Is that correct?

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, Planodisney said:

So cannastop, your prediction is no way it can reach 1 billion WW.  Is that correct?

No, I think it's possible for Finding Dory to reach $1B worldwide. It's just really hard to predict right now because of the changes that the Brexit brought.

Edited June 27, 2016 by cannastop

[Planodisney]

I understand.  But if you look at TS3 OS numbers, plus what Dory made in China, which TS3 made nothing, plus the places where Dory has already opened and is performing on par or a few places better than TS3, DORY can finish about 200 million below TS3 in its remaining markets and still hit 500 million OS.  That looks to be virtually impossible when you look at the fact that it will somewhat outperform TS3 in LA, which has already started happening in Argentina, and will outperform TS3 in Germany where it had a pretty bad run.

It doesn't need to match TS3 UK, Japan, France or Mexico run to hit 500 million.  In fact not even close.

But, if it does come relatively close, 

and perform well in LA, then even 600 is definitely in play.  I'm not predicting it but it's still VERY possible.

Edited June 27, 2016 by Planodisney

[Jason]

Alright, so I got around to doing an exchange rate comparison pre-Brexit (June 23) are post-Brexit (today). I have a master table that includes all currencies, but for obvious reasons the table I'm posting here only has currencies that commonly see film releases. Exchange rates are listed in currency units per USD. The ↓↑ column shows the decrease or increase in strength of that currency relative to the USD, post-Brexit.

 

Quote

Code	Currency name	23-Jun	27-Jun	↓↑
ARS	Argentine Peso	14.17141	15.265	-7.2%
AUD	Australian Dollar	1.316793	1.363995	-3.5%
BOB	Bolivian Bolíviano	6.884064	6.81	1.1%
BRL	Brazilian Real	3.348585	3.391653	-1.3%
GBP	British Pound	0.67577	0.756342	-10.7%
BGN	Bulgarian Lev	1.720153	1.77644	-3.2%
CLP	Chilean Peso	671.6151	681.9	-1.5%
CNY	Chinese Yuan Renminbi	6.578177	6.651286	-1.1%
COP	Colombian Peso	2907.407	3058	-4.9%
HRK	Croatian Kuna	6.605548	6.821524	-3.2%
CZK	Czech Koruna	23.82018	24.64054	-3.3%
DKK	Danish Krone	6.54636	6.748489	-3.0%
AED	Emirati Dirham	3.672956	3.673	0.0%
EUR	Euro	0.879537	0.90743	-3.1%
HKD	Hong Kong Dollar	7.757388	7.761013	0.0%
HUF	Hungarian Forint	276.7827	288.9359	-4.2%
ISK	Icelandic Krona	121.7389	125.4	-2.9%
INR	Indian Rupee	67.29619	67.92632	-0.9%
ILS	Israeli Shekel	3.823792	3.888117	-1.7%
JPY	Japanese Yen	105.8827	102.0512	3.8%
LBP	Lebanese Pound	1506.507	1511	-0.3%
MYR	Malaysian Ringgit	3.984141	4.1165	-3.2%
MXN	Mexican Peso	18.30758	19.18031	-4.6%
NZD	New Zealand Dollar	1.381816	1.42897	-3.3%
NOK	Norwegian Krone	8.170844	8.57678	-4.7%
OMR	Omani Rial	0.385	0.385	0.0%
PEN	Peruvian Sol	3.285049	3.3245	-1.2%
PHP	Philippine Peso	46.48024	47.31491	-1.8%
PLN	Polish Zloty	3.841425	4.050706	-5.2%
RON	Romanian New Leu	3.980002	4.109978	-3.2%
RUB	Russian Ruble	64.26095	65.68344	-2.2%
RSD	Serbian Dinar	109.2091	112.5395	-3.0%
SGD	Singapore Dollar	1.339384	1.362615	-1.7%
ZAR	South African Rand	14.44803	15.44621	-6.5%
KRW	South Korean Won	1144.307	1180.389	-3.1%
SEK	Swedish Krona	8.171214	8.558586	-4.5%
CHF	Swiss Franc	0.95679	0.978554	-2.2%
TWD	Taiwan New Dollar	32.00275	32.52644	-1.6%
THB	Thai Baht	35.17543	35.33319	-0.4%
TRY	Turkish Lira	2.857964	2.938137	-2.7%
UAH	Ukrainian Hryvnia	24.83991	24.875	-0.1%
UYU	Uruguayan Peso	30.68493	30.98	-1.0%
VEF	Venezuelan Bolivar	9.949813	9.985	-0.4%

 

Good news is that the USD isn't strengthening that much against all currencies, it's mostly just the British Pound, Euro, and other European currencies that are falling. A few Latin American currencies have weakened by more than a few percent as well, but not all of them. The only currencies that have fallen by more than 5% are the British Pound, Argentine Peso, South African Rand (unrelated/related?), and the Polish Zloty.

 

To put the above changes in perspective, I did an analysis of a few films at pre- and post-Brexit ERs. The "tracked" column shows the original OS total in the territories that were individually tracked, since the pre-Brexit and post-Brexit ERs can only be applied to those totals. (Edit: The pre-Brexit and post-Brexit totals do not include the untracked gross.)

 

Quote

	OS Total	Tracked	Pre-Brexit ER	Post-Brexit ER	↓Brexit
Frozen	$876M	$843M	$734M	$725M	-1.2%
Inside Out	$501M	$500M	$491M	$475M	-3.3%
Toy Story 3	$648M	$633M	$535M	$521M	-2.6%
Zootopia	$676M	$658M	$657M	$645M	-1.8%

 

Frozen and Zootopia would have been less affected by Brexit due to the proportion of their OS gross in Japan or China compared to Europe. Inside Out and Toy Story 3 are more affected due to their higher proportion of European gross.

 

Overall, I don't think we have to worry about the effect of Brexit on Dory's total OS gross, just the strengthening of the USD in general over the past few years.

 

Fun Fact: Zootopia would certainly still have made it to $1B at post-Brexit ERs.

Edited June 28, 2016 by Jason

[picores]

Whoa! Great job Jason!

[peludo]

5 hours ago, Jason said:

Alright, so I got around to doing an exchange rate comparison pre-Brexit (June 23) are post-Brexit (today). I have a master table that includes all currencies, but for obvious reasons the table I'm posting here only has currencies that commonly see film releases. Exchange rates are listed in currency units per USD. The ↓↑ column shows the decrease or increase in strength of that currency relative to the USD, post-Brexit.

 

 

Good news is that the USD isn't strengthening that much against all currencies, it's mostly just the British Pound, Euro, and other European currencies that are falling. A few Latin American currencies have weakened by more than a few percent as well, but not all of them. The only currencies that have fallen by more than 5% are the British Pound, Argentine Peso, South African Rand (unrelated/related?), and the Polish Zloty.

 

To put the above changes in perspective, I did an analysis of a few films at pre- and post-Brexit ERs. The "tracked" column shows the original OS total in the territories that were individually tracked, since the pre-Brexit and post-Brexit ERs can only be applied to those totals.

 

 

Frozen and Zootopia would have been less affected by Brexit due to the proportion of their OS gross in Japan or China compared to Europe. Inside Out and Toy Story 3 are more affected due to their higher proportion of European gross.

 

Overall, I don't think we have to worry about the effect of Brexit on Dory's total OS gross, just the strengthening of the USD in general over the past few years.

 

Fun Fact: Zootopia would certainly still have made it to $1B at post-Brexit ERs.

If you have estimated $645m with current ER and Zootopia is at $340m in US, that sums up $985m, not enough for billion...

 

Anyway, amazing job  If you are interested in this kind of adjustments, I tried to do it some months ago (although I am too busy right now to keep it updated). This is the thread: Exchange rates thread

[Jason]

14 minutes ago, peludo said:

If you have estimated $645m with current ER and Zootopia is at $340m in US, that sums up $985m, not enough for billion...

 

$645M would be the total from tracked territories with current ER. There is a total of $19M untracked, which would need to be only $15M after adjustments to reach $1B. But out of markets where Zootopia saw a release, only Venezuela has seen a drop exceeding 20% between now and release. And it's impossible that any significant amount of the untracked $19M is from Venezuela. (Tracked total in Venezuela only $1.6M)

Edited June 28, 2016 by Jason

[Fullbuster]

Thank you Jason that's really interesting!

 

I hope the Yen will keep rising over time, that would strongly benefit Dory and other Hollywood releases such as Moana.

[Fullbuster]

At the beginning of the year you needed 120 yens to by $1, now you need 100 yens. And according to Takuji Okubi, Chief Financial Analyst at JMA, you soon could do it with 85 yens, a level not seen since 2012.

 

That's not good for Japan (the GDP growth is stagnant despite all kinds of stimulus, a stronger yen could hit exporters and lead to a recession) but that's damn good for US movies and particularly Finding Dory and Moana

[MinaTakla]

11 hours ago, Jason said:

Alright, so I got around to doing an exchange rate comparison pre-Brexit (June 23) are post-Brexit (today). I have a master table that includes all currencies, but for obvious reasons the table I'm posting here only has currencies that commonly see film releases. Exchange rates are listed in currency units per USD. The ↓↑ column shows the decrease or increase in strength of that currency relative to the USD, post-Brexit.

 

 

Good news is that the USD isn't strengthening that much against all currencies, it's mostly just the British Pound, Euro, and other European currencies that are falling. A few Latin American currencies have weakened by more than a few percent as well, but not all of them. The only currencies that have fallen by more than 5% are the British Pound, Argentine Peso, South African Rand (unrelated/related?), and the Polish Zloty.

 

To put the above changes in perspective, I did an analysis of a few films at pre- and post-Brexit ERs. The "tracked" column shows the original OS total in the territories that were individually tracked, since the pre-Brexit and post-Brexit ERs can only be applied to those totals. (Edit: The pre-Brexit and post-Brexit totals do not include the untracked gross.)

 

 

Frozen and Zootopia would have been less affected by Brexit due to the proportion of their OS gross in Japan or China compared to Europe. Inside Out and Toy Story 3 are more affected due to their higher proportion of European gross.

 

Overall, I don't think we have to worry about the effect of Brexit on Dory's total OS gross, just the strengthening of the USD in general over the past few years.

 

Fun Fact: Zootopia would certainly still have made it to $1B at post-Brexit ERs.

 

Posts like this post is what makes this forum such a great learning and knowledge experience.

Thanks Jason.

[Jason]

8 hours ago, peludo said:

Anyway, amazing job  If you are interested in this kind of adjustments, I tried to do it some months ago (although I am too busy right now to keep it updated). This is the thread: Exchange rates thread

 

Wow, that's a lot of films you were doing adjustments for. My methodology is a little different from yours, I mostly just take a snapshot of exchange rates from a date close to most of the release dates, with a different date if a major market has a release months away from the other markets (usually Japan). I haven't tried using an average rate, although playing around with different dates didn't really make much of a difference, the individual fluctuations from day to day in the currencies seem to balance themselves out, except when there's a major global shift caused by something like Brexit or oil prices plunging.

How do you account for the untracked portion of the totals?

[peludo]

26 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

Wow, that's a lot of films you were doing adjustments for. My methodology is a little different from yours, I mostly just take a snapshot of exchange rates from a date close to most of the release dates, with a different date if a major market has a release months away from the other markets (usually Japan). I haven't tried using an average rate, although playing around with different dates didn't really make much of a difference, the individual fluctuations from day to day in the currencies seem to balance themselves out, except when there's a major global shift caused by something like Brexit or oil prices plunging.

How do you account for the untracked portion of the totals?

I never took into account this kind of events. I can make an exception for Brexit or Argentinian Peso devaluation during December 2001, for example. But this kind of events are very unusual. And as you say, the fluctuations are not so hard during the release period of a film, even more considering that most of the money grossed by Hollywood releases is concentrated during first 2-3 weeks. I prefer to make approximations for more films than exact figures for less films.

 

It is already hard to do in this way. And this just pretend to be an approximation. I will never say this film would had done $432,123,456.76 with certain ER, because it is absurd. Too many variables to be taken into account beyond the simple calculation we are doing. Just trying to put into perspective some numbers

[Jason]

6 hours ago, Fullbuster said:

That's not good for Japan (the GDP growth is stagnant despite all kinds of stimulus, a stronger yen could hit exporters and lead to a recession) but that's damn good for US movies and particularly Finding Dory and Moana

 

Meanwhile in Europe: the British PM is resigning, the UK might break up, and other countries are threatening referendums too. Over here at BOT our concern is: but how will this affect the global box office?

[Fullbuster]

2 hours ago, Jason said:

 

Meanwhile in Europe: the British PM is resigning, the UK might break up, and other countries are threatening referendums too. Over here at BOT our concern is: but how will this affect the global box office?

 

No other country wants to do a referendum, far-right parties want to do that but they need to be in power to do so, something that is far from certain to happen.

As for the UK I don't want to pity them, they decided to destroy themselves despite all warnings so if they want to be stupid it's their problem, so I prefer to care about BO numbers

Edited June 28, 2016 by Fullbuster

[Planodisney]

Lol.  I hardly think the UK has destroyed themselves.  Even if other countries, and it isn't just FAR right 

politicians that talk about getting out of the EU.  It may not happen, but you know what, if they do, the world will be just fine and we will all still love movies.

Dont believe the doomsday scenarios coming from the right or the left that they throw out there when the people have decided against what THEY wanted.  They both love to shame and humiliate those that have voted against what they want!!!

Now back to box office!!!!!!  ??

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, Planodisney said:

Lol.  I hardly think the UK has destroyed themselves.  Even if other countries, and it isn't just FAR right 

politicians that talk about getting out of the EU.  It may not happen, but you know what, if they do, the world will be just fine and we will all still love movies.

Dont believe the doomsday scenarios coming from the right or the left that they throw out there when the people have decided against what THEY wanted.  They both love to shame and humiliate those that have voted against what they want!!!

Now back to box office!!!!!!  ??

If the EU dissolves, that means that box office totals from those countries will be worth significantly less than before. It's absolutely relevant.

[Fullbuster]

9 hours ago, Planodisney said:

Lol.  I hardly think the UK has destroyed themselves.  Even if other countries, and it isn't just FAR right 

politicians that talk about getting out of the EU.  It may not happen, but you know what, if they do, the world will be just fine and we will all still love movies.

Dont believe the doomsday scenarios coming from the right or the left that they throw out there when the people have decided against what THEY wanted.  They both love to shame and humiliate those that have voted against what they want!!!

Now back to box office!!!!!!  ??

 

You clearly have no understanding  of European politics. I repeat, only the far right wants these referendums, and it's far from certain they can have enough votes to rule and implement them.

 

As for not believing the "doomsday scenarios" it's exactly what the Brexiters were saying, and in the end we got this : falling pound, possible dismantlement of the UK, $2 Trillions of wealth destroyed around the world, a weaker European economy because of the uncertainty, a dynamic UK economy that could fall into recession and some voters for "leave" having regrets after understanding they have been misled by "anti-elites" politicians.

 

So, what experts and politicians in favor of remain said is happening right now, your "f*** the experts" attitude is exactly what's dangerous : it's wrong, irrational, ridiculous and full of ignorance. Democracy is not a game, you just can't waste the lives of tens of millions of people just to vent your frustration against an immaterial, invisible "elite".  It's time to be adult and mature, the Brexit clearly showed how disastrous this attitude is, and this attitude also brought the Nazis to power and led to WW2.

 

 

[Fullbuster]

9 hours ago, cannastop said:

If the EU dissolves, that means that box office totals from those countries will be worth significantly less than before. It's absolutely relevant.

 

According to some studies, if France leaves the EU and the euro currency (very unlikely according to polls) the new French currency would have a value 30% inferior to the Euro or even more. This value would be decided by the degree of interest from investors according to several economic indicators : unemployment rate, GDP growth, uncertainty, political climate. All of these being bad a currency falling by 45-50% against the USD wouldn't be surprising. The effect on the BO would be very clear, to say the least...