STAR WARS PREDICTION CONTEST. Winners Announced

[GiantCALBears]

3 hours ago, GiantCALBears said:

227.7m OW, 724.3m DOM, 1.923b WW

Changed.

[MovieMan89]

Can I still change? Meant to do it last night and forgot. That's OK if not. 

[HeyItsMoses]

13 hours ago, HeyItsMoses said:

1.8b domestic.

Okay, Lemme be serious with my predictions now...

 

$274m Opening Weekend

$1,217m Domestic

$3,650m Worldwide

I know I might be late, but I wake up late, and I was busy with meetings, and preparing christmas decorations.

 

Please accept my numbers?

[MovieMan89]

Here are my changed predictions at any rate. Leave it up to you No Prisoners is you accept them or not.

 

Change:

 

OW: $333m

DOM: $1.111b

WW: $2.925b

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Can I still change? Meant to do it last night and forgot. That's OK if not. 

Go ahead. Preview starts soon. Definitely closed 630 pm pst 

[POTUS 2020]

contest closed

 

[POTUS 2020]

					DOM
		OW		Chewy	1275.0			WW
1	MovieMan89	333.0		HetItsMoses	1217.0		HetItsMoses	3650.0
2	Chewy	325.0		MovieMan89	1111.0		Chewy	3625.0
3	ThatOneGuy	310.0		Druv10	1105.0		iJackSparrow	3300.0
4	Druv10	306.0		AndyLL	1100.0		Klingo	3200.0
5	Boxx93	304.0		BJ	1072.0		Boxx93	3106.0
6	Klingo	290.0		yads	1055.0		yads	3100.0
7	film scholar	288.0		Tstechnij	1050.0		DAR	3100.0
8	No Prisoners	284.0		Empire of Spies	1032.0		Hangman	3066.8
9	BastienGiat	279.0		film scholar	1008.0		parkerthegreat	3005.1
10	blackspider	273.0		No Prisoners	1005.0		ThatOneGuy	3000.0
11	HetItsMoses	274.0		parkerthegreat	1000.1		Ray G	2930.0
12	yads	271.0		Boxx93	982.0		MovieMan89	2925.0
13	Yandereprime	270.0		Klingo	980.0		Yandereprime	2900.0
14	WrathofHan	270.0		Marek the Jedi	976.6		shaldun	2900.0
15	iJackSparrow	270.0		DAR	975.0		film scholar	2800.0
16	mahnamahna	270.0		ThatOneGuy	965.0		Tstechnij	2800.0
17	MonstersandRoy	267.5		cmbbox2390	957.0		The Panda	2800.0
18	Jessie	265.9		Yandereprime	950.0		AndyLL	2800.0
19	Baumer	265.0		WrathofHan	950.0		Movieboner	2800.0
20	Tstechnij	260.0		iJackSparrow	950.0		Kalo	2777.0
21	The Dark Alfred	258.0		mahnamahna	950.0		Empire of Spies	2765.0
22	Marek the Jedi	257.0		arpiaaaa	940.0		mahnamahna	2700.0
23	XeOF4	256.0		Baumer	925.0		BJ	2700.0
24	DAR	255.0		blackspider	921.0		Baumer	2650.0
25	Grey Ghost	254.3		Dan9	920.7		DAJK	2650.0
26	TriggerMike	254.0		Grey Ghost	915.5		arpiaaaa	2650.0
27	Exxdee	251.2		Blankments	910.0		WrathofHan	2600.0
28	John Marston	250.0		Jim Shorts	905.8		cmbbox2390	2600.0
29	Caesar	250.0		Jessie	900.0		Jajang	2587.0
30	parkerthegreat	250.1		BKB is Capt America	900.0		The Dark Alfred	2542.0
31	BJ	250.0		Hangman	896.7		JohnnY	2530.0
32	Films	249.7		PanaMovie	892.1		Jim Shorts	2513.0
33	DAJK	248.2		Films	886.4		BKB is Capt America	2500.0
34	Jack	247.9		Jajang	883.9		231sEverywhere	2500.0
35	Empire of Spies	248.0		Dekunova	870.0		xeno000	2500.0
36	TalismanRing	247.5		Ray G	861.0		BastienGiat	2485.0
37	wileECoyote	246.0		John Marston	860.0		wildphantom	2407.0
38	Noctis	246.0		Cory	860.0		Jessie	2400.0
39	JeepCSC	245.6		ChiSoxRox	855.0		Blankments	2394.8
40	The Panda	245.0		Jack	852.1		ssjrem	2370.0
41	Ajipon	244.0		BastienGiat	850.0		Marek the Jedi	2356.0
42	wildphantom	243.5		Caesar	850.0		Dan9	2330.0
43	BourneFan#1	242.7		peludo	850.0		Grey Ghost	2320.0
44	Jim Shorts	241.3		ShouldIbeHere	845.0		Heretic	2310.0
45	Cory	240.0		Ajipon	844.0		Kenterkane	2310.0
46	arpiaaaa	240.0		TalismanRing	836.0		Films	2308.7
47	peludo	240.0		Kenterkane	835.0		TriggerMike	2300.0
48	Kalo	239.0		MonstersandRoy	825.0		Jack	2295.0
49	33Legend	238.0		shaldun	825.0		spaghetti	2270.0
50	Asyulus	238.0		XeOF4	822.2		ShouldIbeHere	2268.0
51	Jajang	237.7		TriggerMike	820.0		FTF	2255.0
52	Ray G	237.4		ssjrem	820.0		33Legend	2251.0
53	Vgpop	237.0		DAJK	818.5		peludo	2250.0
54	AndyLL	237.0		wildphantom	817.9		bapi	2250.0
55	Heretic	237.0		wileECoyote	812.0		Druv10	2200.0
56	Wrath	235.4		33Legend	811.0		Caesar	2200.0
57	ssjrem	235.0		Jandrew	810.0		Noctis	2200.0
58	wormhole	235.0		pepsa	810.0		JeepCSC	2200.0
59	shaldun	235.0		TheGoodOlive	810.0		BourneFan#1	2200.0
60	JohnnY	234.0		The Dark Alfred	807.0		wormhole	2200.0
61	Lumos	233.7		BourneFan#1	805.2		Daniel Dylan Davis	2200.0
62	Blankments	233.6		Heretic	805.0		ash	2200.0
63	cmbbox2390	232.0		Exxdee	802.5		No Prisoners	2170.0
64	Goffe	232.0		Noctis	800.0		Ajipon	2144.0
65	Dan9	231.5		Movieboner	800.0		Exxdee	2111.0
66	Hangman	231.1		Bonenash	800.0		MonstersandRoy	2110.0
67	BKB is Capt America	230.0		ash	793.0		Bonenash	2105.0
68	Jandrew	230.0		JeepCSC	789.3		Vgpop	2103.0
69	spaghetti	230.0		theStun	785.0		Cory	2100.0
70	Daniel Dylan Davis	230.0		bapi	785.0		aliadiera29	2100.0
71	Movieboner	230.0		Eleven	784.5		ChiSoxRox	2100.0
72	aliadiera29	229.0		Junkshop36	783.0		wileECoyote	2092.0
73	Telemachos	228.4		CoolioD1	781.0		misafeco	2088.0
74	GiantCalBears	227.7		JohnnY	780.0		CoolioD1	2073.0
75	FTF	227.5		Omni	780.0		John Marston	2060.0
76	pepsa	227.4		Water Bottle	780.0		pepsa	2054.0
77	Junkshop36	227.0		Kalo	777.0		Jandrew	2050.0
78	TheGoodOlive	232.0		Juby	776.0		Omni	2040.0
79	lilmac	225.1		Telemachos	775.4		BoxOfficeZ	2040.0
80	Girafficpark	225.0		The Panda	770.0		TalismanRing	2032.0
81	231sEverywhere	225.0		spaghetti	770.0		XeOF4	2023.0
82	Spizzer	225.0		Walt Disney	770.0		Juby	2006.0
83	Omni	225.0		Spizzer	765.0		Ethan Hunt	2000.0
84	Eleven	223.9		Lumos	761.1		Samarus	1984.2
85	SchumacherFTW	223.6		231sEverywhere	761.0		theStun	1960.0
86	ChiSoxRox	223.0		wormhole	760.0		PanaMovie	1959.1
87	ash	222.0		FTF	755.5		TheGoodOlive	1950.0
88	xeno000	222.0		xeno000	755.0		Eleven	1946.5
89	BoxOfficeZ	221.7		Samarus	754.0		GiantCalBears	1923.0
90	Dekunova	221.7		Elessar	748.0		lilmac	1916.0
91	Charism	221.4		Jayhawk	745.0		blackspider	1900.0
92	PanaMovie	226.4		Ethan Hunt	744.0		Girafficpark	1900.0
93	ShouldIbeHere	221.0		Girafficpark	735.0		Michael Gary Scott	1900.0
94	Juby	219.8		Cochofles	730.0		Water Bottle	1900.0
95	theStun	219.5		Wrath	728.1		moviesRus	1900.0
96	Sam	219.0		lilmac	727.0		Walt Disney	1900.0
97	Ethan Hunt	218.0		Asyulus	726.6		Asyulus	1877.3
98	Jayhawk	218.0		GiantCalBears	724.3		Telemachos	1875.4
99	bapi	217.0		Goffe	715.0		Junkshop36	1868.0
100	CoolioD1	215.8		langer	715.0		DamienRoc	1862.0
101	KayJaySay	215.5		DamienRoc	714.0		Indernus	1854.0
102	Michael Gary Scott	215.0		75live	713.2		Goffe	1828.0
103	Indernus	214.0		Daniel Dylan Davis	710.0		Jayhawk	1820.0
104	Elessar	212.0		Michael Gary Scott	705.0		Elessar	1816.0
105	Samarus	212.0		Vgpop	703.0		Spizzer	1815.0
106	Cmasterclay	212.0		BoxOfficeZ	702.0		75live	1814.0
107	misafeco	210.5		aliadiera29	700.0		Cmasterclay	1800.0
108	Water Bottle	210.0		boomboom234	700.0		boomboom234	1800.0
109	Alli	210.0		Gokai Red	700.0		Charism	1770.0
110	boomboom234	210.0		misafeco	695.8		KayJaySay	1770.0
111	Lordmandeep	208.0		SchumacherFTW	695.4		SchumacherFTW	1764.0
112	DamienRoc	203.0		Sam	691.0		seduh	1740.0
113	Kenterkane	202.4		seduh	690.0		ImoJammer	1735.0
114	The Stingray	202.0		moviesRus	690.0		Sam	1710.0
115	The Futurist	195.0		Cmasterclay	686.0		langer	1705.0
116	seduh	195.0		Lordmandeep	678.0		Lordmandeep	1700.0
117	ImoJammer	195.0		Indernus	674.0		Wrath	1650.0
118	Bonenash	195.0		Charism	671.2		Daerth Homer	1650.0
119	moviesRus	195.0		KayJaySay	671.0		Murgatroyd	1650.0
120	Dexter of Suburbia	190.0		ImoJammer	660.0		Lumos	1643.0
121	langer	190.0		Daerth Homer	650.0		Harpospoke	1600.0
122	Harpospoke	189.9		Murgatroyd	640.0		Cheesypoofs	1600.0
123	Cheesypoofs	185.0		The Stingray	633.0		Cochofles	1600.0
124	James	180.0		Cheesypoofs	615.0		CaptainJackSparrow	1600.0
125	Gokai Red	179.9		Ncsoft	615.0		Gokai Red	1550.0
126	Ncsoft	178.5		The Futurist	600.0		Ncsoft	1550.0
127	75live	178.3		Harpospoke	600.0		The Stingray	1533.0
128	Daerth Homer	177.0		Amadeus	600.0		Dekunova	1500.0
129	Amadeus	170.0		CaptainJackSparrow	600.0		James	1450.0
130	Walt Disney	170.0		James	595.0		Alli	1400.0
131	Murgatroyd	160.0		Dexter of Suburbia	589.0		Amadeus	1400.0
132	Cochofles	155.0		Alli	580.0		Fake	1400.0
133	CaptainJackSparrow	150.0		Fake	500.0		The Futurist	1350.0
134	Fake	140.0		mrqe93	370.0		Dexter of Suburbia	1200.0
135	mrqe93	127.0		SW7 Predictions			mrqe93	1100.0
	Average	230.4		Average	802.6		Average	2179.9
	Ave Top/Bot 10 Removed	230.2		Ave Top/Bot 10 Removed	799.3		Ave Top/Bot 10 Removed	2162.3
	Median	230.0		Median	791.0		Median	2104.0

[POTUS 2020]

		OW	DOM	WW	OW M	DOM %
1	MovieMan89	333.0	1111.0	2925.0	3.3363	37.98%
2	Chewy	325.0	1275.0	3625.0	3.9231	35.17%
3	ThatOneGuy	310.0	965.0	3000.0	3.1129	32.17%
4	Druv10	306.0	1105.0	2200.0	3.6111	50.23%
5	Boxx93	304.0	982.0	3106.0	3.2303	31.62%
6	Klingo	290.0	980.0	3200.0	3.3793	30.63%
7	film scholar	288.0	1008.0	2800.0	3.5000	36.00%
8	No Prisoners	284.0	1005.0	2170.0	3.5387	46.31%
9	BastienGiat	279.0	850.0	2485.0	3.0466	34.21%
10	blackspider	273.0	921.0	1900.0	3.3736	48.47%
11	HetItsMoses	274.0	1217.0	3650.0	4.4416	33.34%
12	yads	271.0	1055.0	3100.0	3.8930	34.03%
13	Yandereprime	270.0	950.0	2900.0	3.5185	32.76%
14	WrathofHan	270.0	950.0	2600.0	3.5185	36.54%
15	iJackSparrow	270.0	950.0	3300.0	3.5185	28.79%
16	mahnamahna	270.0	950.0	2700.0	3.5185	35.19%
17	MonstersandRoy	267.5	825.0	2110.0	3.0841	39.10%
18	Jessie	265.9	900.0	2400.0	3.3847	37.50%
19	Baumer	265.0	925.0	2650.0	3.4906	34.91%
20	Tstechnij	260.0	1050.0	2800.0	4.0385	37.50%
21	The Dark Alfred	258.0	807.0	2542.0	3.1279	31.75%
22	Marek the Jedi	257.0	976.6	2356.0	3.8000	41.45%
23	XeOF4	256.0	822.2	2023.0	3.2117	40.64%
24	DAR	255.0	975.0	3100.0	3.8235	31.45%
25	Grey Ghost	254.3	915.5	2320.0	3.6001	39.46%
26	TriggerMike	254.0	820.0	2300.0	3.2283	35.65%
27	Exxdee	251.2	802.5	2111.0	3.1947	38.02%
28	John Marston	250.0	860.0	2060.0	3.4400	41.75%
29	Caesar	250.0	850.0	2200.0	3.4000	38.64%
30	parkerthegreat	250.1	1000.1	3005.1	3.9988	33.28%
31	BJ	250.0	1072.0	2700.0	4.2880	39.70%
32	Films	249.7	886.4	2308.7	3.5499	38.39%
33	DAJK	248.2	818.5	2650.0	3.2977	30.89%
34	Jack	247.9	852.1	2295.0	3.4373	37.13%
35	Empire of Spies	248.0	1032.0	2765.0	4.1613	37.32%
36	TalismanRing	247.5	836.0	2032.0	3.3778	41.14%
37	wileECoyote	246.0	812.0	2092.0	3.3008	38.81%
38	Noctis	246.0	800.0	2200.0	3.2520	36.36%
39	JeepCSC	245.6	789.3	2200.0	3.2138	35.88%
40	The Panda	245.0	770.0	2800.0	3.1429	27.50%
41	Ajipon	244.0	844.0	2144.0	3.4590	39.37%
42	wildphantom	243.5	817.9	2407.0	3.3589	33.98%
43	BourneFan#1	242.7	805.2	2200.0	3.3177	36.60%
44	Jim Shorts	241.3	905.8	2513.0	3.7538	36.04%
45	Cory	240.0	860.0	2100.0	3.5833	40.95%
46	arpiaaaa	240.0	940.0	2650.0	3.9167	35.47%
47	peludo	240.0	850.0	2250.0	3.5417	37.78%
48	Kalo	239.0	777.0	2777.0	3.2510	27.98%
49	33Legend	238.0	811.0	2251.0	3.4076	36.03%
50	Asyulus	238.0	726.6	1877.3	3.0529	38.70%
51	Jajang	237.7	883.9	2587.0	3.7186	34.17%
52	Ray G	237.4	861.0	2930.0	3.6268	29.39%
53	Vgpop	237.0	703.0	2103.0	2.9662	33.43%
54	AndyLL	237.0	1100.0	2800.0	4.6414	39.29%
55	Heretic	237.0	805.0	2310.0	3.3966	34.85%
56	Wrath	235.4	728.1	1650.0	3.0930	44.13%
57	ssjrem	235.0	820.0	2370.0	3.4894	34.60%
58	wormhole	235.0	760.0	2200.0	3.2340	34.55%
59	shaldun	235.0	825.0	2900.0	3.5106	28.45%
60	JohnnY	234.0	780.0	2530.0	3.3333	30.83%
61	Lumos	233.7	761.1	1643.0	3.2567	46.32%
62	Blankments	233.6	910.0	2394.8	3.8955	38.00%
63	cmbbox2390	232.0	957.0	2600.0	4.1250	36.81%
64	Goffe	232.0	715.0	1828.0	3.0819	39.11%
65	Dan9	231.5	920.7	2330.0	3.9771	39.52%
66	Hangman	231.1	896.7	3066.8	3.8801	29.24%
67	BKB is Capt America	230.0	900.0	2500.0	3.9130	36.00%
68	Jandrew	230.0	810.0	2050.0	3.5217	39.51%
69	spaghetti	230.0	770.0	2270.0	3.3478	33.92%
70	Daniel Dylan Davis	230.0	710.0	2200.0	3.0870	32.27%
71	Movieboner	230.0	800.0	2800.0	3.4783	28.57%
72	aliadiera29	229.0	700.0	2100.0	3.0568	33.33%
73	Telemachos	228.4	775.4	1875.4	3.3949	41.35%
74	GiantCalBears	227.7	724.3	1923.0	3.1809	37.67%
75	FTF	227.5	755.5	2255.0	3.3209	33.50%
76	pepsa	227.4	810.0	2054.0	3.5620	39.44%
77	Junkshop36	227.0	783.0	1868.0	3.4493	41.92%
78	TheGoodOlive	232.0	810.0	1950.0	3.4914	41.54%
79	lilmac	225.1	727.0	1916.0	3.2297	37.94%
80	Girafficpark	225.0	735.0	1900.0	3.2667	38.68%
81	231sEverywhere	225.0	761.0	2500.0	3.3822	30.44%
82	Spizzer	225.0	765.0	1815.0	3.4000	42.15%
83	Omni	225.0	780.0	2040.0	3.4667	38.24%
84	Eleven	223.9	784.5	1946.5	3.5038	40.30%
85	SchumacherFTW	223.6	695.4	1764.0	3.1100	39.42%
86	ChiSoxRox	223.0	855.0	2100.0	3.8341	40.71%
87	ash	222.0	793.0	2200.0	3.5721	36.05%
88	xeno000	222.0	755.0	2500.0	3.4009	30.20%
89	BoxOfficeZ	221.7	702.0	2040.0	3.1664	34.41%
90	Dekunova	221.7	870.0	1500.0	3.9242	58.00%
91	Charism	221.4	671.2	1770.0	3.0316	37.92%
92	PanaMovie	226.4	892.1	1959.1	3.9404	45.54%
93	ShouldIbeHere	221.0	845.0	2268.0	3.8235	37.26%
94	Juby	219.8	776.0	2006.0	3.5305	38.68%
95	theStun	219.5	785.0	1960.0	3.5763	40.05%
96	Sam	219.0	691.0	1710.0	3.1553	40.41%
97	Ethan Hunt	218.0	744.0	2000.0	3.4128	37.20%
98	Jayhawk	218.0	745.0	1820.0	3.4174	40.93%
99	bapi	217.0	785.0	2250.0	3.6175	34.89%
100	CoolioD1	215.8	781.0	2073.0	3.6191	37.67%
101	KayJaySay	215.5	671.0	1770.0	3.1137	37.91%
102	Michael Gary Scott	215.0	705.0	1900.0	3.2791	37.11%
103	Indernus	214.0	674.0	1854.0	3.1495	36.35%
104	Elessar	212.0	748.0	1816.0	3.5283	41.19%
105	Samarus	212.0	754.0	1984.2	3.5566	38.00%
106	Cmasterclay	212.0	686.0	1800.0	3.2358	38.11%
107	misafeco	210.5	695.8	2088.0	3.3055	33.32%
108	Water Bottle	210.0	780.0	1900.0	3.7143	41.05%
109	Alli	210.0	580.0	1400.0	2.7619	41.43%
110	boomboom234	210.0	700.0	1800.0	3.3333	38.89%
111	Lordmandeep	208.0	678.0	1700.0	3.2596	39.88%
112	DamienRoc	203.0	714.0	1862.0	3.5172	38.35%
113	Kenterkane	202.4	835.0	2310.0	4.1255	36.15%
114	The Stingray	202.0	633.0	1533.0	3.1337	41.29%
115	The Futurist	195.0	600.0	1350.0	3.0769	44.44%
116	seduh	195.0	690.0	1740.0	3.5385	39.66%
117	ImoJammer	195.0	660.0	1735.0	3.3846	38.04%
118	Bonenash	195.0	800.0	2105.0	4.1026	38.00%
119	moviesRus	195.0	690.0	1900.0	3.5385	36.32%
120	Dexter of Suburbia	190.0	589.0	1200.0	3.1000	49.08%
121	langer	190.0	715.0	1705.0	3.7632	41.94%
122	Harpospoke	189.9	600.0	1600.0	3.1596	37.50%
123	Cheesypoofs	185.0	615.0	1600.0	3.3243	38.44%
124	James	180.0	595.0	1450.0	3.3056	41.03%
125	Gokai Red	179.9	700.0	1550.0	3.8911	45.16%
126	Ncsoft	178.5	615.0	1550.0	3.4454	39.68%
127	75live	178.3	713.2	1814.0	4.0000	39.32%
128	Daerth Homer	177.0	650.0	1650.0	3.6723	39.39%
129	Amadeus	170.0	600.0	1400.0	3.5294	42.86%
130	Walt Disney	170.0	770.0	1900.0	4.5294	40.53%
131	Murgatroyd	160.0	640.0	1650.0	4.0000	38.79%
132	Cochofles	155.0	730.0	1600.0	4.7097	45.63%
133	CaptainJackSparrow	150.0	600.0	1600.0	4.0000	37.50%
134	Fake	140.0	500.0	1400.0	3.5714	35.71%
135	mrqe93	127.0	370.0	1100.0	2.9134	33.64%
	Average	230.4	806.1	2179.9	3.5044	37.63%
	Average Weighted				3.4983	36.98%
	Average on Wed	227.7	799.6	2174.0	3.5300	37.60%

After declining for several days in a row, the averages bumped the last 2 days

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

I'm predicting 270M on OW and I'm not even in the top 10 highest. 

[POTUS 2020]

Good news for high predictors. I always try to find a small sample that'll play ou big in the numbers. Was speaking to my aunt and uncle. They are 68 and 73. They took my cousin to see SW in 77. They haven't seen the sequels or any super hero movies in the theaters since. They did see avatar. They are going to see SW7 with several of their friends this weekend nor nostalgic/hype reasons.  Others they spoke to also plan to see it. Its breaking out of the usual demos

250m+ OW locked

1B dom locked on the condition RT is above 80%

have a nice day

get ready for the meltups!

[GiantCALBears]

Bad news for predictors on high end is the theater count won't even be close to a record.

[AndyLL]

7 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

Bad news for predictors on high end is the theater count won't even be close to a record.

 

Theater count doesn't matter... screen count does

[POTUS 2020]

17 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

Bad news for predictors on high end is the theater count won't even be close to a record.

 

8 minutes ago, Darth AndyLL said:

 

Theater count doesn't matter... screen count does

and furthermore, showtimes

many many showtimes, 'round the clock

[spizzer]

21 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

Bad news for predictors on high end is the theater count won't even be close to a record.

 

Here's what I posted on the theater count when the 3900 number was announced.  Note that the count has since gone up.

 

Quote

Quote

Top OW Show Count

IM3 - 163,400
DH2 - 143,400
TDKR - 139,500
BD2 - 136,900

CF - 135,400

TA - 134,400

 

Top OW Screen Count

IM3 - 13,200
TDKR - 11,800
TA - 11,800
DH2 - 11,100
AWE - 10,800

CF- 10,700

 

Top Show:Theater Ratio (>100,000 shows)

IM3 - 38.4
BD2 - 33.6
DH2 - 32.8
THG - 32.5

CF - 32.4
Shrek 3 - 32.1

 

Runtimes for TFA and IM3 are similar.

 

38.4 ratio on 3900 theaters would be ~150,000 shows for the weekend (minus previews).  Let's say an even 40, so 156,000.  25-30K (probably a record number) more from previews would put it at 180-185K shows.  

 

Say the actual theater count goes up to 4000, and the ratio's even higher, like 42.5.  We'd be sitting at 170K shows before even counting previews.  200K shows can happen.

 

Quote

So I've been looking at BOM's showtime and screencount data for some of the mega openers.  Using attendance estimates for the OW, I can estimate how many seats/tickets were sold per show, excluding midnights/previews.  Some preliminary data:

 

TA - 150 per show

TDK - 168 per show

IM3 - 101 per show

CF - 118 per show

TDKR - 113 per show

DH2 - 98 per show

BD1 - 118 per show

BD2 - 103 per show

 

So yeah, your completely and totally random guess seems spot on.

 

 

In light of the 3900 theater count, it should be expected that:

 

A.) Larger screens with greater seating will be the preference.  This should drive seats/tickets sold per show up.

 

B.) Larger theaters with more screens will be the preference.  This should drive shows/screens per theater up.  

 

Super Liberal estimate:

 

3900 theaters

40 shows per theater

150 tickets per show

 

That would be 23.4M tickets sold before previews.  Potter did 4.9M (50-55M) from previews, if this pulled the same, we'd be looking at ~28.4M tickets sold, almost 30% over the current record, and 295-315M gross (depends on 3D/IMAX/PLF share).

 

Middling estimate:

 

3900 theaters

35 shows per theater

130 tickets per show

 

17.7.M tickets sold.  Add in ~4M (40-45M) from previews, we're at just under 22M tickets sold, in line with the current attendance record and anywhere from 220-240M gross (again depends on shares).

 

Conservative estimate:

 

3900

30

115

 

13.5M tickets sold.  Add in ~3M (30-35M) from previews.  16.5M tickets sold (little less than ROTS 3-day), 170-180M gross. 

 

[spizzer]

1 hour ago, No Prisoners said:

	Average	230.4	806.1	2179.9	3.5044	37.63%
	Average Weighted				3.4983	36.98%
	Average on Wed	227.7	799.6	2174.0	3.5300	37.60%

After declining for several days in a row, the averages bumped the last 2 days

 

 

 

Average is 10% increase from OW record and 6% increase over DOM record.  

 

I think I might end up going higher than my 225/765 for final Thursday night predictions with a OW breakdown.  

[Chewy]

I'm kinda pissed that people sniped those #1 spots from me at the last minute

[grey ghost]

25 minutes ago, Chewy said:

I'm kinda pissed that people sniped those #1 spots from me at the last minute

 

Take it as a compliment.

 

Or a headshot.

 

Your choice. 

 

[FTF]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Here are my changed predictions at any rate. Leave it up to you No Prisoners is you accept them or not.

 

Change:

 

OW: $333m

DOM: $1.111b

WW: $2.925b

 

[MovieMan89]

25 minutes ago, FTF said:

 

Wanna know something even crazier? I actually believe those numbers can happen.  Hell, I really don't think there's a defined ceiling on this thing's OW. We may all be falling out of our chairs. 

[Water Bottle]

$333 million OW? For the love of god, people, movies still struggle to even open to $200 million. AoU couldn't do it and it had everything except a stupid fight going for it. Only 2 movies in HISTORY have opened to over $200 million. Adjusted, the Phantom Menace only opened to $106 million. Now with 3D and IMAX, The Force Awakens can make it to $200 million. But come on, $300 million? $333 million?

 

You guys haven't just lost it.  When it opens to $210 million, you can't call for a WWW thread. The only thing that went wrong is your head going insane and throwing out unrealistic OW numbers.