Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | 1B WW

[jb007]

2 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Ya, honestly, it is not the juggernaut that most people expected it to be.

Especially domestically... I was hoping for a 180m. Fandango crash and news like that... made us hopes high, but its opening is like Hunger Games.

155 in December is extraordinary. It should get to 500 m dom and about 600m OS. So it is very good considering the ER and some other internstionsal issues.

[Aristis]

2 minutes ago, jb007 said:

155 in December is extraordinary. It should get to 500 m dom and about 600m OS. So it is very good considering the ER and some other internstionsal issues.

Not to forget the anti-Trump issue

 

[FilmBuff]

It'll be the #1 film worldwide = disappointment. Lol

[TigerPaw]

2 minutes ago, jb007 said:

155 in December is extraordinary. It should get to 500 m dom and about 600m OS. So it is very good considering the ER and some other internstionsal issues.

I think 450 to 500m Dom is possible,

600m OS, that's a little difficult IMO. i have been follow China box office and many posters here are over optimstic of R1's performance there.

TFA was not a good introduction of SW to Chinese audiences.. It is a deterence that makes Chinese Audience steer clear of SW films, the numerous online weibo posts of people falling asleep and leaving the theater early in China in January because of TFA shows it.

Furthermore when SW weibo tries to share about the great reviews of R1, Chinese netizens are commenting this. Literal translation. "TFA had great reviews too but it was a bore of a movie, we don't trust these reviews."

I will not be surprised if R1 performs weaker than TFA in China because of the bad taste of TFA in their mouths.

[terrestrial]

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice  3 minutes ago

ROGUE ONE scored $135.5M overseas. UK ($21M) GER ($12M) OZ ($11M) FRA ($10M) JPN ($8M) RUS ($5.6M) BRZ ($5.3M) MEX ($5.1M) ESP ($4.5M)

[Apollo2xx]

Especially with Sing (to steal a lot of kids)/Passengers (to steal a lot of women)/Assassin's Creed (to steal a lot of guys) coming next weekend.

[Olive]

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Edited December 18, 2016 by Olive

[jb007]

2 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

I think 450 to 500m Dom is possible,

600m OS, that's a little difficult IMO. i have been follow China box office and many posters here are over optimstic of R1's performance there.

TFA was not a good introduction of SW to Chinese audiences.. It is a deterence that makes Chinese Audience steer clear of SW films, the numerous online weibo posts of people falling asleep and leaving the theater early in China in January because of TFA shows it.

Furthermore when SW weibo tries to share about the great reviews of R1, Chinese netizens are commenting this. Literal translation. "TFA had great reviews too but it was a bore of a movie, we don't trust these reviews."

I will not be surprised if R1 performs weaker than TFA in China because of the bad taste of TFA in their mouths.

 

 

I'm  hoping for 500m from the current markets and 100m from China and S Korea. Hopefully, that should be doable.

 

With 155M OW, it should pass 500m.

[terrestrial]

@Olive great, it works... but I think you mixed up the threads ( = not the SK thread!)

[Olive]

Just now, terrestrial said:

@Olive great, it works... but I think you mixed up the threads ( = not the SK thread!)

Yeah, I tried about 7-8 times, LOL

[James]

1 minute ago, jb007 said:

 

 

I'm  hoping for 500m from the current markets and 100m from China and S Korea. Hopefully, that should be doable.

 

With 155M OW, it should pass 500m.

A lot of those markets had 4-5 day openings so the multis will be muted even with holidays. 420-450m from those markets sounds about right.  

[jb007]

5 minutes ago, James said:

A lot of those markets had 4-5 day openings so the multis will be muted even with holidays. 420-450m from those markets sounds about right.  

It did 50% of TFA over the OW and in most cases like UK had similar opening days wrt TFA. 

Edited December 18, 2016 by jb007

[Aristis]

6 minutes ago, jb007 said:

 

 

I'm  hoping for 500m from the current markets and 100m from China and S Korea. Hopefully, that should be doable.

 

With 155M OW, it should pass 500m.

With $500M Dom I think you're right, sadly the current markets probably won't do much more than $450M. But maybe this will have extraordinary legs and comes much higher!

[jb007]

6 minutes ago, Aristis said:

With $500M Dom I think you're right, sadly the current markets probably won't do much more than $450M. But maybe this will have extraordinary legs and comes much higher!

I certainly hope so. 

[George Parr]

13 minutes ago, James said:

A lot of those markets had 4-5 day openings so the multis will be muted even with holidays. 420-450m from those markets sounds about right.  

 

These markets always have 4-5 day weekends, because that's how releases work there. In France, the numbers for the "weekend" are always Wednesday to Sunday, in Germany it's always Thursday to Sunday, and so on. I don't see how that is supposed to impact the holds.

[James]

1 minute ago, George Parr said:

 

These markets always have 4-5 day weekends, because that's how releases work there. In France, the numbers for the "weekend" are always Wednesday to Sunday, in Germany it's always Thursday to Sunday, and so on. I don't see how that is supposed to impact the holds.

It actually depends on the movie. FB had a 3-day opening in the UK. RO had a 4-day opening and so on. The longer the OW, the smaller the multiplier, because of already burnt demand. For these markets to hit 500m, they would need an overall 3.7x multi. Thake the UK for example. With it's opening it is expected to do around 65-70m there. That-s a 3-3.3x multi. And that only had a 4-daty opening. The markets which had 5-day opening won;t do anywhere close to a 3x multi. You see what I mean?

[Valonqar]

31 minutes ago, Apollo2xx said:

Especially with Sing (to steal a lot of kids)/Passengers (to steal a lot of women)/Assassin's Creed (to steal a lot of guys) coming next weekend.

 

AC ain't gonna steal a lot of anything. 

 

@TigerPaw

 

the numerous online weibo posts of people falling asleep and leaving the theater early in China in January because of TFA shows it.

 

 

So what exactly put them to sleep? 

Edited December 18, 2016 by Valonqar

[James]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

 

AC ain't gonna steal a lot of anything. 

OS it will.

[Valonqar]

Fassbender is a boxoffice poison everywhere. 

[Aristis]

1 minute ago, James said:

It actually depends on the movie. FB had a 3-day opening in the UK. RO had a 4-day opening and so on. The longer the OW, the smaller the multiplier, because of already burnt demand. For these markets to hit 500m, they would need an overall 3.7x multi. Thake the UK for example. With it's opening it is expected to do around 65-70m there. That-s a 3-3.3x multi. And that only had a 4-daty opening. The markets which had 5-day opening won;t do anywhere close to a 3x multi. You see what I mean?

I think Germany (for example) could have a 4x multi after a 4-day weekend.

 

TFA had 4,15x after a huge OW (in Germany). It is possible - especially with christmas holyday. But of course not all countries will have a multipler wich is that high. But it depends less on the days of the weekend than on the overall behaviour (concerning frontloadness) in that markets.7

 

From its $280M OW TFA had 3,6x for 1B. The same would give RO $485M. If it holds a bit better $500M could happen. I do not say that it happens. But it's definitly possible if WOM is good.