Kvikk Lunsj Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 3 minutes ago, FilmBuff said: The dark knight is FAR behind ticket sold of other massive blockbusters. Pretty much every modern blockbuster. Expect for Star Wars 7. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 1 minute ago, FilmBuff said: The dark knight is FAR behind ticket sold of other massive blockbusters. If your definition of a massive blockbuster includes 3D and PLF juiced movies like Avengers and Jurassic WORLD, you're dead wrong. If your definition of a massive blockbuster is Phantom Menace/Jurassic PARK and above (Titanic, Jaws, etc) then yeah TDK is much smaller. Force Awakens is going to join the truly massive club pretty soon. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobinHood26 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 (edited) My 13 year old sister official thinks Star Wars is more bad ass than Hunger Games. I've never seen her so invested in a movie. Edited December 27, 2015 by Jay Salahi 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mango Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 TDK sold more tickets than every movie that has released since it did except for Avatar and soon to be TFA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deedlit Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Just now, spizzer said: Yup. Does anyone know ANH's original run gross? I saw someone mention ~$230M, and that'd around 100-105M tickets. Even that might be doable. But the question then becomes: what is the cutoff for the original run? Because I've heard that there was overlap between that and its first few releases. BOM (or was it The-Numbers?) used to have more Star Wars data, which showed the movie slowing to a dribble at $219 million. So ~220M seems right. The data is now missing, I know not why. According to http://www.in70mm.com/news/2003/star_wars/ (I can't get inserting links to work), The first release lasted all the way until the second, but the second one lasted just 16 weeks, leading to a total of 265.1 million. So the "first release" can be either 220M or 265.1M, but it can't be 307M - Star Wars was not in theatres continuously for over 4 years straight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 1 hour ago, spizzer said: If BOM is correct, then GWTW sold 200M tickets over the course of all its releases. For TFA, that'd be anywhere between $1.9-2.1B, which isn't happening. I think its a 0% chance given what we've seen through 10 days, it would have had to follow Avatar to a T, which it didn't. We should remove GWTW and all the Disney re-releases out of adjusted top ten. Just not comparable. Then compare the 1st run of the movies we have data on, like exorcist, jaws, SW and beyond. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shruth Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 1 hour ago, Baumer Fett said: Lol Much to learn u still have. Rth Doesnt predict. He has raw data. go check every single early projections by the official studio's they are always spot on with their Saturday gross and maybe range up or down by about 1% or less. Sunday's can change a lot but saturday's don't. I would love to be wrong and would be happy if actuals were $58m but $55m Sat is gonna stay put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seduh Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 SW:TFA had a magnificent 2nd weekend hold (even with Chrismas). It will have another $100 weekend, in fact I think it's third weekend will be higher than JW second. I expect $950 - 1 billion for this movie (91 - 96 million tickets sold, the biggest since TITANIC) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 1 minute ago, eddyxx said: Every time I see a update for the film's box office the domestic and overseas totals are neck and neck in a almost 50/50 split. If the film does finish at a billion domestic and a billion overseas, won't this be unusual for a modern blockbuster? Depends. If it is a triology... and all countries even have released and finished it, then yes. A part 1 movie... material not already known, usually are less likley to earn a high OS % Or movies with a strong 'murica feel (term?) like e.g. American Sniper: Domestic: $350,126,372 64.0% + Foreign: $197,300,000 36.0% = Worldwide: $547,426,372 or 21 Jump Street Domestic: $138,447,667 68.7% + Foreign: $63,137,661 31.3% = Worldwide: $201,585,328 even that got higher OS percentages with the next one Domestic: $191,719,337 57.9% + Foreign: $139,614,539 42.1% = Worldwide: $331,333,876 Older movies too tend to have a way smaller percentage than nowadays But if a bigger movie is based on international known directors, with fmous actors..., simply clicks, is part x of a movie series, book material or.... example Kingdom of Heaven Domestic: $47,398,413 22.4% + Foreign: $164,253,638 77.6% = Worldwide: $211,652,051 Hobbit 3 Domestic: $255,119,788 26.7% + Foreign: $700,900,000 73.3% = Worldwide: $956,019,788 and so on (see also the early MCU movies and later ones, big difference!) But the most important part, see earlier: SW 7 isn't everywhere released yet. China starts at 9 January plus a lot of countries have complete or partially closed down cinemas around X-Mas.... So the precentages you are used to, tend to be the ones of globally finalized runs Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxmoser3 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Star Wars has another solid weekend I'm thinking of a total of around 810 million domestic. Daddy's Home is off to a solid start, it's shocking to see it make more than The Other Guys OW. Daddy's Home should end it's run around 120 million domestic. Joy opened decent, although lower than American Hustle it is still solid due to its mixed reviews and without any Oscar nomination push. If Joy holds well it should end its run between 90-100 million domestic. Sisters had a solid drop for a comedy and should still earn at least 60 million domestic total. Alvin And The Chipmunks 4 had an ok drop, it's still doing below the other films and might fall short of 100 million. Concussion off to meh start below Seven Pounds and Focus it could hold well another week but it could likely end its run close to 40 million domestic. The Big Short is doing ok in its expansion, it should still hold up strong going forward in January. Point Break is another big bomb for WB in 2015 luckily they have a decent calendar in 2016 and Creed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxmoser3 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 December 2015 is already passing the monthly record. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/monthly/?chart=mtd&view=releasedate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxmoser3 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 2015 has also passed 2012 this weekend. It should pass 2013 tomorrow. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/?view2=ytdcompare&view=releasedate&p=.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 This is funny. You a movie is massive when half the conversation is about adjusting numbers and tickets sold. I guess that's all thats left to debate since TFA is crushing everything in site. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 7 minutes ago, shruth said: go check every single early projections by the official studio's they are always spot on with their Saturday gross and maybe range up or down by about 1% or less. Sunday's can change a lot but saturday's don't. I would love to be wrong and would be happy if actuals were $58m but $55m Sat is gonna stay put. Nope. You dont get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 1 minute ago, Deedlit said: BOM adjusts TDK to 74.4M admissions, but it doesn't accout for IMAX, which might lower TDK to around 73M admissions maybe? $10.40 seems high. What were your ticket prices for the various formats again? Actually $10.40 might be low. Here's a quote from Deadline from last weekend: https://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-thursday-night-previews-1201669166/ Quote Force Awakens denizens also spared no expense to see the movie: 38% spent between $13-$15 to see the film, while 29% shelled out $16-$18 a ticket. Obviously this is just from a polled sample, but its still highly suggestive. In order for the overall sample to have spent an average of $10.37 (I was rounding earlier, 10.37 was the estimate) per ticket, the remaining 33% of the sample would have had to have bought their tickets at a price of $0.36, which is impossible. Also, given that the 3D share (RealD + IMAX + PLF) was 47%, that means that a considerable fraction of the quoted 67% were spending that high on 2D tickets. Quote I seem to recall that you had data from Wall Street Journals up to a certain point, then assumed an annual 3% increase - which seems to have a problem since that outpaces the increase for the average annual ticket prices across all formats, which is the most accurate data we have. But that number (the BOM average annual ticket price) doesn't assume a uniform/consistent distribution for 2D/3D, OR discount/non-discount, OR morning/matinee/evening across years, it simply uses the actual distribution (which isn't uniform). Example, using $7.50 2D, $9.50 3D, $12.50 IMAX in Year 1, with fixed 3% yearly inflation. Year 1 - 70% 2D, 30% 3D, 5% IMAX. Avg. Price = $8.45 Year 2 - 57.5% 2D, 35% 3D, 7.5% IMAX. Avg. Price = $8.83 (+4.5% inflation) Year 3 - 50% 2D, 40% 3D, 10% IMAX. Avg. Price = $9.34 (+5.7% inflation) Year 4 - 82.5% 2D, 15% 3D, 2.5% IMAX. Avg. Price = $8.66 (-7.2% inflation) The price of each ticket increased a flat 3% every year, yet the BOM calculator would correctly tell us that the average annual price shifted at considerably different rates each year (and even decreased one year, despite the prices actually going up). Both of these can be simultaneously correct. BOM's average price is the amount of dollars actually spent, not the average prices at which tickets were set. For reference, the WSJ prices were from 2011: $7.60 2D, $10.85 3D, $14.05 IMAX. At the time, I assumed small hikes for IMAX 3D and PLF. In 2011, PLF screens were rather limited, and were made up of a larger share of high price seats such as D-Box (which went for >$20 even back then). In today's market, PLF has come to include in house formats such as ETX/RPX/etc. that are not priced as high and should fall somewhere in between 3D and IMAX prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Show us how SW finishes with a total of 815 million. At this point thats almost impossible. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 3 minutes ago, spizzer said: Spoiler Actually $10.40 might be low. Here's a quote from Deadline from last weekend: https://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-thursday-night-previews-1201669166/ Obviously this is just from a polled sample, but its still highly suggestive. In order for the overall sample to have spent an average of $10.37 (I was rounding earlier, 10.37 was the estimate) per ticket, the remaining 33% of the sample would have had to have bought their tickets at a price of $0.36, which is impossible. Also, given that the 3D share (RealD + IMAX + PLF) was 47%, that means that a considerable fraction of the quoted 67% were spending that high on 2D tickets. But that number (the BOM average annual ticket price) doesn't assume a uniform/consistent distribution for 2D/3D, OR discount/non-discount, OR morning/matinee/evening across years, it simply uses the actual distribution (which isn't uniform). Example, using $7.50 2D, $9.50 3D, $12.50 IMAX in Year 1, with fixed 3% yearly inflation. Year 1 - 70% 2D, 30% 3D, 5% IMAX. Avg. Price = $8.45 Year 2 - 57.5% 2D, 35% 3D, 7.5% IMAX. Avg. Price = $8.83 (+4.5% inflation) Year 3 - 50% 2D, 40% 3D, 10% IMAX. Avg. Price = $9.34 (+5.7% inflation) Year 4 - 82.5% 2D, 15% 3D, 2.5% IMAX. Avg. Price = $8.66 (-7.2% inflation) The price of each ticket increased a flat 3% every year, yet the BOM calculator would correctly tell us that the average annual price shifted at considerably different rates each year (and even decreased one year, despite the prices actually going up). Both of these can be simultaneously correct. BOM's average price is the amount of dollars actually spent, not the average prices at which tickets were set. For reference, the WSJ prices were from 2011: $7.60 2D, $10.85 3D, $14.05 IMAX. At the time, I assumed small hikes for IMAX 3D and PLF. In 2011, PLF screens were rather limited, and were made up of a larger share of high price seats such as D-Box (which went for >$20 even back then). In today's market, PLF has come to include in house formats such as ETX/RPX/etc. that are not priced as high and should fall somewhere in between 3D and IMAX prices. Plus accounting for Red's report of 50M IMAX gross for TDK would bring it down to ~73.5M admissions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfy01 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 2 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said: Show us how SW finishes with a total of 815 million. At this point thats almost impossible. let's just say for the sake of argument that this whole week is $20 million days leading up to the weekend. That'd put the film at $624 heading into the weekend. Now take $153 and drop it by 50%. That makes as of next monday: $700 million. Then $13 million every day to the next weekend where it does $40. That puts it at $792 million. Now cut that $13 in half to $6 million and put the next weekend at $20. After 3 more weeks: DOM TOTAL $836 million. Yeah I tried and still couldn't get it reasonably that low. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 On the high side it will be close to or past 810M by next weekend alone, forget final total. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Trying out if a lenghty quote is packabele in a spoiler as I can not edit quotes beside one detail Spoiler spizzer only a hint about the money spent per ticket: fees for online purchase included, the rest I haven't read, I am not into that kind of discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
