AndyLL Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Holy cow... just got caught up. Saw this again at the 4:00pm IMAX showing. (5th time) I have never seen the theater more crowded. IMAX was basically sold out... The 3 huge 2D theaters were all over 90% sold full... the 3 3D smaller theaters were 80-90% full. Unbelievable. I've never seen it so crowded even on a summer Saturday. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 44 minutes ago, grey ghost said: Very few people predicted over 900 m for TFA. Look at the Winter Game predictions. It was only after presales shattered records in December that predictions skyrocketed. Very few people predicted Avatar would do $300m+, just so you understand my POV. 31 of the 135 predicted $900m+ in no prisoners contest with 12 going over $1b domestic. That is way more than very few hate to break it to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Just now, DAR said: So I was reading Box Office Prophets(I know) analysis http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=18079&cmin=10&columnpage=2 It's the last paragraph regarding Force Awakens and let me know if I'm reading this wrong. They expect the film to make 200 million between tomorrow and next Sunday which puts it at for now 744 million. The next sentence states it should pass Avatar by MLK day. Unless MLK day is that Monday do they think the film is making just 16 million in those few weeks? They are false prophets. Devote yourself wholly to @Rth, he shall not mislead you. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junkshop36 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 45 minutes ago, VenomXXR said: $25.5 million tomorrow, $96 million 3rd weekend. It isn't dropping that much on Monday. We're still in the holiday period. 40% drop, at most 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I don't follow the box office as closely as you guys, but what I don't see happening and what seems kind of funny to predict is a sudden drop-off for any movie that has been performing this week. That just isn't really how reality works, if you ignore the numbers for a second. There isn't a mass group of people saying, "Ok, well we will go see Star Wars on its second Sunday, but absolutely not the next week even though we are off." You are going to start to see, as was said above, slight deviations from Avatar's holds week in and week out. It's not going to be like, wow, ok $20M Monday after a $40M Monday last week, holy cow, fell off the cliff. No. Instead of increasing like Avatar did Monday-to-Monday, though, it's going to decline slightly. It may very well manage only a 20% decline, but that will still be a decline. And it will still be a massive Monday gross. I feel like some people act like there's this brick wall that the movie will suddenly hit and fall against it and that's that. I just find that idea kind of laughable. A movie like this will gradually start to show the demand has been met or most of the demand has been met, and will deviate from Avatar significantly but not hugely here and there until they are on quite different trajectories as far as opening weekend multiples. But I don't see the next week suddenly being garbage holds because of some imaginary idea that everyone has seen the film and nobody else is left. That's just not reality. Also Titanic's box office run wasn't nearly as much fun to watch as this even if you weren't a Star Wars fan. You can imagine as a SW fan, I found watching Titanic's box office run to be horrifying and completely awful, because A New Hope had just claimed its rightful place as #1. But even stepping aside my biases for a moment, there wasn't anything fun or interesting to watch about the box office run of Titanic WHATSOEVER on a day to day basis. What was interesting and amazing is opening up the newspaper every Monday and seeing, wow, the dang movie declined only 7%. Then next week, WHAT? It went UP 5%? Huh? Movies don't do that! That was what made the box office run so interesting to see. It wasn't like this where I can spend all day reading articles, posting about it, checking for Rth updates, seeing actuals, etc. I mean, what, it was fascinating on a January weekday to say, "Holy cow, Titanic made $1.7 million today, that's amazing! On a Tuesday! No movie has ever made almost $2 million on a Tuesday!" LOL, no. Not fun and not interesting. It was just those weekend figures that were astonishing for months. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriggerMike Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 I feel this should only drop 35% at the most on monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FTF Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 2 minutes ago, Darth AndyLL said: Holy cow... just got caught up. Saw this again at the 4:00pm IMAX showing. (5th time) I have never seen the theater more crowded. IMAX was basically sold out... The 3 huge 2D theaters were all over 90% sold full... the 3 3D smaller theaters were 80-90% full. Unbelievable. I've never seen it so crowded even on a summer Saturday. niiiice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokila Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/movies/2015/12/23/star-wars-the-force-awakens-poll-repeat-viewership/77803128/ well this bodes well. If you read the article, 42% of people who have seen TFA plan to see it again. Most of those who plan to see it again plan to bring others in. If this holds up my maths tell me that this would almost double the total we have now simple from repeat viewers bringing themselves and a friend or 2 (or there kids). There will also be those who were not planning to see it again but will because some friend wants to see it and they will go with them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 2 minutes ago, JonathanLB said: I don't follow the box office as closely as you guys, but what I don't see happening and what seems kind of funny to predict is a sudden drop-off for any movie that has been performing this week. That just isn't really how reality works, if you ignore the numbers for a second. There isn't a mass group of people saying, "Ok, well we will go see Star Wars on its second Sunday, but absolutely not the next week even though we are off." You are going to start to see, as was said above, slight deviations from Avatar's holds week in and week out. It's not going to be like, wow, ok $20M Monday after a $40M Monday last week, holy cow, fell off the cliff. No. Instead of increasing like Avatar did Monday-to-Monday, though, it's going to decline slightly. It may very well manage only a 20% decline, but that will still be a decline. And it will still be a massive Monday gross. I feel like some people act like there's this brick wall that the movie will suddenly hit and fall against it and that's that. I just find that idea kind of laughable. A movie like this will gradually start to show the demand has been met or most of the demand has been met, and will deviate from Avatar significantly but not hugely here and there until they are on quite different trajectories as far as opening weekend multiples. But I don't see the next week suddenly being garbage holds because of some imaginary idea that everyone has seen the film and nobody else is left. That's just not reality. Also Titanic's box office run wasn't nearly as much fun to watch as this even if you weren't a Star Wars fan. You can imagine as a SW fan, I found watching Titanic's box office run to be horrifying and completely awful, because A New Hope had just claimed its rightful place as #1. But even stepping aside my biases for a moment, there wasn't anything fun or interesting to watch about the box office run of Titanic WHATSOEVER on a day to day basis. What was interesting and amazing is opening up the newspaper every Monday and seeing, wow, the dang movie declined only 7%. Then next week, WHAT? It went UP 5%? Huh? Movies don't do that! That was what made the box office run so interesting to see. It wasn't like this where I can spend all day reading articles, posting about it, checking for Rth updates, seeing actuals, etc. I mean, what, it was fascinating on a January weekday to say, "Holy cow, Titanic made $1.7 million today, that's amazing! On a Tuesday! No movie has ever made almost $2 million on a Tuesday!" LOL, no. Not fun and not interesting. It was just those weekend figures that were astonishing for months. I disagree with this completely. When a film has it's highest grossing day two months after it's released, how can you not have fun tracking that movie? You say putting your bias aside, well you are doing the exact opposite. titanic's run was absolutely epic in every way. It just kept going and going. It's one of the first times I tracking a films progress week by week and had a lot of fun doing it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Just now, tokila said: http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/movies/2015/12/23/star-wars-the-force-awakens-poll-repeat-viewership/77803128/ well this bodes well. If you read the article, 42% of people who have seen TFA plan to see it again. Most of those who plan to see it again plan to bring others in. If this holds up my maths tell me that this would almost double the total we have now simple from repeat viewers bringing themselves and a friend or 2 (or there kids). There will also be those who were not planning to see it again but will because some friend wants to see it and they will go with them. $1.1b definitely sounds about right at the moment. I wish January was the wasteland it used to be though. Avatar didn't have to deal with the likes of a 13 Hours, Ride Along, or KFP3 in its January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Its all set, me and my cousins are doing a Creed/Star Wars double header on Wednesday 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grey ghost Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 1 minute ago, GiantCALBears said: Very few people predicted Avatar would do $300m+, just so you understand my POV. 31 of the 135 predicted $900m+ in no prisoners contest with 12 going over $1b domestic. That is way more than very few hate to break it to you. That's after everyone knew TFA crushed presale records. Let's look at the expectations before there was overwhelming evidence that TFA would overperform. Only one person predicted TFA would make over 900 m in the Winter Game. Only 4 out of 27 thought it would beat Avatar. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokila Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Just now, MovieMan89 said: $1.1b definitely sounds about right at the moment. I wish January was the wasteland it used to be though. Avatar didn't have to deal with the likes of a 13 Hours, Ride Along, or KFP3 in its January. ya Avatar pretty much only had to deal with the Book of Eli(which I found entertaining) until Valentine's day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avatree Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Best number this weekend is the 0% drop that SISTERS got. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 1 minute ago, grey ghost said: That's after everyone knew TFA crushed presale records. Let's look at the expectations before there was overwhelming evidence that TFA would overperform. Only one person predicted TFA would make over 900 m in the Winter Game. Only 4 out of 27 thought it would beat Avatar. Great & I'm sure a couple months pre avatar predictions were even lower also. You can pick whatever time frame you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vc2002 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 6 minutes ago, JonathanLB said: I don't follow the box office as closely as you guys, but what I don't see happening and what seems kind of funny to predict is a sudden drop-off for any movie that has been performing this week. That just isn't really how reality works, if you ignore the numbers for a second. There isn't a mass group of people saying, "Ok, well we will go see Star Wars on its second Sunday, but absolutely not the next week even though we are off." You are going to start to see, as was said above, slight deviations from Avatar's holds week in and week out. It's not going to be like, wow, ok $20M Monday after a $40M Monday last week, holy cow, fell off the cliff. No. Instead of increasing like Avatar did Monday-to-Monday, though, it's going to decline slightly. It may very well manage only a 20% decline, but that will still be a decline. And it will still be a massive Monday gross. I feel like some people act like there's this brick wall that the movie will suddenly hit and fall against it and that's that. I just find that idea kind of laughable. A movie like this will gradually start to show the demand has been met or most of the demand has been met, and will deviate from Avatar significantly but not hugely here and there until they are on quite different trajectories as far as opening weekend multiples. But I don't see the next week suddenly being garbage holds because of some imaginary idea that everyone has seen the film and nobody else is left. That's just not reality. Also Titanic's box office run wasn't nearly as much fun to watch as this even if you weren't a Star Wars fan. You can imagine as a SW fan, I found watching Titanic's box office run to be horrifying and completely awful, because A New Hope had just claimed its rightful place as #1. But even stepping aside my biases for a moment, there wasn't anything fun or interesting to watch about the box office run of Titanic WHATSOEVER on a day to day basis. What was interesting and amazing is opening up the newspaper every Monday and seeing, wow, the dang movie declined only 7%. Then next week, WHAT? It went UP 5%? Huh? Movies don't do that! That was what made the box office run so interesting to see. It wasn't like this where I can spend all day reading articles, posting about it, checking for Rth updates, seeing actuals, etc. I mean, what, it was fascinating on a January weekday to say, "Holy cow, Titanic made $1.7 million today, that's amazing! On a Tuesday! No movie has ever made almost $2 million on a Tuesday!" LOL, no. Not fun and not interesting. It was just those weekend figures that were astonishing for months. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Avatar took on Sherlock Holmes though, which was bigger than anything TFA is facing right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 3 minutes ago, Salacious Tree Crumb said: Best number this weekend is the 0% drop that SISTERS got. That is really impressive considering DH should have stole some of its audience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 Recency bias ITT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark 33Legend of the Sith Posted December 28, 2015 Share Posted December 28, 2015 7 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said: Its all set, me and my cousins are doing a Creed/Star Wars double header on Wednesday Well done! My 2 favorite films of 2015 so far! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
