Dementeleus Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Just now, IronJimbo said: I think next saturday is the first day Avatar outpaces TFA, then he does so everyday for the rest of TFA's run. I think we will be finishing just under 1b Very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Decent number....... Still on track for 1B but it's not a lock. Proceeding with my LOTR2 comparison, TFA's Saturday gross is 3.27x of LOTR2. LOTR2 made 85.5M after Saturday. If TFA holds the same, it will make further 279.5M, which means exact 1B finish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeymichael Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 What is the chance that there is a grassroots movement among SW diehards to keep buying tickets to push this thing over 1B if it looks like it might fall short? Cause it looks like it might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daxtreme Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 All will depend on the holds post-holidays. Really hard to tell how they will shape up to be. It could drop massively, but then, it could also hold decent enough due to the hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 So about 22M Sunday, About 60% drop would give it about 8.5M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hasanahmad Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Avatar is a foregone memory. http://i.imgur.com/1FLSb60.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Total by end of Friday 686m Sat +35m: 721 Sun: +22m: 743 Mon: +9m: 752 Tues: +7m: 759m Wens +7m: 766m Thurs +6m: 772m Fri +12m: 790m Sat +22m: 812m Sun +14m: 826m (48m weekend) Mon +6m: 832m tues +5m: 837m wens +5m: 842m thurs +4m: 848m weekend +25m: 873m Then from here it's going to be grinding it's way to 1bil, if it makes more than 1b it won't be much higher. Am I on the mark or far off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 9 hours ago, terrestrial said: Forecast summary, (for the newbes: those sites do them at different week days, so they have different knowledge about recent actuals. Deadline's jump sometimes more than once per day, they adjust a lot) SW 7 BOM $104.4m BO.com $95m (earlier in the week they had it at $98m) DL $90-$94m (~ just updated) Daddy's Home BOM $26.34m BO.com $29m DL $28-$29m The Hateful Eight BOM $24.9m (I think that was before the report of the burning film roll appeared) BO.com $16.7m DL $17m Joy BOM $12.76m BO.com $10.5m DL $10.4-$11m Sisters BOM $11.64m BO.com $12.6m DL %12.1-$12.5m ... Rather differing estimats I think 27 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: BoxOffice websites predictions were far off the Mark. They said 110m right, oppsie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biph Shmata Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 5 minutes ago, mikeymichael said: What is the chance that there is a grassroots movement among SW diehards to keep buying tickets to push this thing over 1B if it looks like it might fall short? Cause it looks like it might. I think there is a good chance Disney will buy $50 million in tickets to give to orphans to get it over $1 billion, they haven't shown much interest in fudging numbers for milestones, but that's one i'm sure they want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokila Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 (edited) 18 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: I think next saturday is the first day Avatar outpaces TFA, then he does so everyday for the rest of TFA's run. I think we will be finishing just under 1b What total gross are we on right now? Avatar made 330 million after Jan 10. TFA will likely be 180 million away from 1 billion. It could be outpaced by over around 90% at that point and still get a billion. The key for TFA to make 1 billion is a sub 50% drop next weekend (low 40s would help alot). The following weekend is a holiday weekend so the drops should be blunted. I expect to be around 870 after MLK 4 day. The question become can TFA mainstain steady drops to get 13 million of Jan 17. JW made 120 million after its 32nd day. So it just need to hold a tad better that point in its run. Edited January 3, 2016 by tokila Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Shorts Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 MLK & Valentines Day weekends will be enough to push this over 1B. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Predecting next week: SUN: 22.0 (743M cume) MON: 7.5 (-66%) TUE: 8.0 WED: 6.0 THU: 5.5 FRI: 13.0 (+135%) SAT: 22.5 (+73%) SUN: 14.5 (-36%) WEEKEND: 50M (820M cume) So 77M Mon-Sun. 30% weekly drops will give further 180M, i.e. 1B finish!!!!!!! Gonna be close. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hasanahmad Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 1 minute ago, IronJimbo said: This is how we get Avatar discussions in numbers threads... But avatar is toast. this record is not getting touched for the next 9-10 years. opening weekend will but not total DOM. Avatar is the cousin no one wanted in the family album and now is being carved out by TFA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diskojustice Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Can TFA broke previous January records of 89m held by American Sniper? It will be an epic start of new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 If this gets 23M tomorrow and holds like Avatar we're looking at a 10.7M Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted January 3, 2016 Author Share Posted January 3, 2016 Please don't be let down if this grosses "ONLY" 950M. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronJimbo Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 (edited) 1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said: If this gets 23M tomorrow and holds like Avatar we're looking at a 10.7M Monday. What other movies other than ROTK and Avatar opened on the 18th DEC? I know Titanic did but it's too old to compare. Edited January 3, 2016 by IronJimbo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biph Shmata Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 How much would a BP Oscar nod bump it's numbers or is it too big for that to have much of an effect? FTR I expect TFA, MMFR, IO and one of Creed or SOC to all get BP nods. They have up to 10 slots for BP and are putting on a TV show engaging the masses is a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 6 hours ago, terrestrial said: I am not so sure about it as it's a bit like coming out of a long weekend Friday on one side, but it's a smaller than usual Friday see the New Year Day chart, so... Avatar has the same week-days in releation to days-in-release as SW 7, but as it started began under it's possibilities (snow storm / weather), and gained strongly via WOM over the next 2 weeks, broke then itself the New Year Day record in a big way at Friday (as SW 7 did yesterday too) = Avatars bump to Saturday was 2.2% But if you compare the daily / week-day in relation to last week changes they do not have the same pattern in that detail anyway. Someone (druv10?) uses Avatar +32% or so. That would mean e.g. Sa Avatar $25,835,551 + 32% = ~ $34m In case it was +30% = ~ $33.5m Someone else (Fake?) uses LotR 2 (Two Towers) = times 3.something (3.4?) I forgot the exact .x times 3.0 would be $32m, times 3.1 = $33m, times 3.2 = ~ $34m.... Me = I do not do prognosis, but I think it's fascinating to observe such findings and how much / how long they are ~ good 17 minutes ago, Fake said: Proceeding with my LOTR2 comparison, TFA's Saturday gross is 3.27x of LOTR2. LOTR2 made 85.5M after Saturday. If TFA holds the same, it will make further 279.5M, which means exact 1B finish. hah, it was you! I am still impressed about finding this LotR 2 thingie, I stopped then at LotR 3 6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said: This is how we get Avatar discussions in numbers threads... it's annoying (and I even like Avatar) about Fake... in relation to your prediction: he/she uses that model since a time = not compareable, no basis for that conclusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
misterchief81 Posted January 3, 2016 Share Posted January 3, 2016 Would have been fun to see it hit 100+ mil this weekend, but it's still passing 700 today in 16 days. Something that only Avatar had done, and it took that film 72 days. And it will pass 750 in 18 days, 800 mil in 23 days, and be closing in on 900 mil in its first month of release. What an incredible run TFA is having. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
