Weekend revised estimates and 4 days totals pg 43 4 day est: RA2: 41.6: The Rev: 39.0... SW7: 32.5

[The Gotham Bank]

So when do you people reckon The Revenant will start behaving worse than American Sniper? I mean, it's bound to happen, right ?

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, The Gotham Bank said:

So when do you people reckon The Revenant will start behaving worse than American Sniper? I mean, it's bound to happen, right ?

Probably next weekend. Wouldn't be surprised if there's a 50% drop from the 3-day given that this weekend was a combination of post-Golden Globes, announcement of the Oscar nominations, and a 4-day holiday.

[cookie]

11 minutes ago, The Gotham Bank said:

So when do you people reckon The Revenant will start behaving worse than American Sniper? I mean, it's bound to happen, right ?

 

Not until after next weekend at the very earliest. Sniper saw a big drop on its third week thanks to the Super Bowl.

Edited January 17, 2016 by cookie

[The Panda]

9 minutes ago, TMP said:

The Big Short had a great hold this weekend, how much can we expect it's final domestic gross to be? $60m? Or can it leg its way to $75m+?

 

Over 60m, 75m is probably going to be the cap unless it re-expands.

[The Gotham Bank]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Probably next weekend. Wouldn't be surprised if there's a 50% drop from the 3-day given that this weekend was a combination of post-Golden Globes, announcement of the Oscar nominations, and a 4-day holiday.

 

But $200M domestic is locked, is it not ? 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

So Force Awakens has now overtaken Empire Strikes Back as the second highest grossing Star Wars movie, adjusted for inflation-wise.....Only behind SW: EP4 "A New Hope"

 

Good job.

 

Adjusted:

Force Awakens: $856M

Empire Strikes Back: $845M

 

Next movie for Force Awakens to beat in terms of adjusted.....is Disney's 101 Dalmatians......and maybe Snow White...if it holds well or gets a re-release.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, The Gotham Bank said:

 

But $200M domestic is locked, is it not ? 

It isn't.

[baumer]

I think the talk of competition is so useless. Movies always have competition. They dont get released into a bare marketplace. So saying movie A had more or less competition is useless. 

[filmlover]

Just now, Baumer said:

I think the talk of competition is so useless. Movies always have competition. They dont get released into a bare marketplace. So saying movie A had more or less competition is useless. 

Unless it's late August/early September and they release a bunch of stuff that no one wants to see in the first place in those spots.

[MovieMan89]

30 minutes ago, TMP said:

The Big Short had a great hold this weekend, how much can we expect it's final domestic gross to be? $60m? Or can it leg its way to $75m+?

If it could lose that many theaters and still hold so amazingly, I expect 15-20% drops to continue leading up to Oscars and 80 to happen. Maybe 100 if it wins the big one and gets re-expanded. 

[Hatebox]

Cool to see The Big Short have a nice run. After its OW I thought it might go off the radar.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

If it could lose that many theaters and still hold so amazingly, I expect 15-20% drops to continue leading up to Oscars and 80 to happen. Maybe 100 if it wins the big one and gets re-expanded. 

To be fair, a lot of the theaters it lost were most likely smaller locations (like 6-10 screen theaters) where it wasn't really making much to begin with or it was forced to be dropped due to screen space with 3 new openers this weekend.

[CJohn]

The Big Short is this year's Imitation Game. It is gonna crack the 90M. 

[Water Bottle]

Oh, looks like my weekend predictions in my monthly movie guide were shockingly accurate for Ride Along 2 and 13 Hours OW.

 

The Forest held better than I was expecting.

 

Norm of the North way over-performed from what I was expecting.

[Avatree]

41 minutes ago, The Gotham Bank said:

 

But $200M domestic is locked, is it not ? 

[Water Bottle]

Star Wars: The Force Awakens isn't dropping hard because of competition: the competition isn't THAT strong. Part of the reason is because the holiday season is over. Part of the reason it isn't having ROTK/Avatar type legs is simple: it made $750 million in 3 weeks. That means that if you were going to see Star Wars, you probably saw it within the first 3 weeks it came out. It met the demand for the movies in 3 weeks. That's not bad: in fact, it's amazing the demand was so high it made over $740 million after just 3 weeks. Come on people.

[filmlover]

19 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The Big Short is this year's Imitation Game. It is gonna crack the 90M. 

$90M might be too high (unless it becomes the frontrunner but that's unlikely) but $75-80M is still doable. Great run.

[MovieMan89]

12 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

Norm of the North way over-performed from what I was expecting.

Hopefully a 2.2x multi or something will be in store with WOM and KFP3. 

[Rman823]

Just saw a commercial for Dirty Grandpa mention Academy Award Winner Robert De Niro. Guess they know how to get butts in the seats.  

[MovieMan89]

It never ceases to confound me though how many people want to always downplay competition as a factor in a movie's legs. Of course WOM is first and foremost the important thing in that area, but how can anyone say a light vs moderate vs heavy slate of competitor grosses have no difference between their effect on another big grosser? I mean Cameron himself would disagree, as it's why he adores the December releases, so he can have January and February mostly to himself. Though he may be in for a nasty surprise if he expects the same for Avatar 2, now that January and February have become far more viable months than they were just 6 years ago.