Wednesday Estimates (Nilephelan)

[tokila]

36 minutes ago, Joel M said:

 

It will make it over Django even with mediocre drops from here on, but 200M aren't that easy. It needs a 5x multiplier to do 200M, even with oscar buzz that kind of legs is hard for a 40m opener.

it already has a 2.5 multi and is seeing small drops. I think 200 is fairly safe for it it. Expect a decent bump in Feb when it wins BP and Leo gets BAILR.

[Joel M]

11 minutes ago, tokila said:

it already has a 2.5 multi and is seeing small drops. I think 200 is fairly safe for it it. Expect a decent bump in Feb when it wins BP and Leo gets BAILR.

 

You can't apply American Hustle or Argo or King's Speech legs to this though just because of oscar buzz. Those movies opened at half of what the Revenant opened so the awards buzz had a bigger impact.

[A District 3 Engineer]

STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS earned $1.8M on Wednesday. Record domestic total is now $863.2M. #StarWars #TheForceAwakens

— BoxOffice (@BoxOffice)

enero 21, 2016

[terrestrial]

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice

STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS earned $1.8M on Wednesday. Record domestic total is now $863.2M. #StarWars #TheForceAwakens

 

 

 

 

[Daxtreme]

1.8M? Surprising

 

Guess it went down a lot on estimates. Oh well, hopefully it stays flat today.

[e1828]

Largest DOMESTIC Totals – After Day 34

1) Star Wars: The Force Awakens – $863,148,249 (Wed - $1,814,233)

2) Jurassic World – $597,829,670 (Wed - $2,202,240)

3) Marvel’s The Avengers - $559,076,546 (Wed - $1,862,060)

4) Avatar - $512,852,205 (Wed - $3,792,807)

5) The Dark Knight - $477,148,000 (Wed - $1,805,312) 
6) Avengers: Age of Ultron - $430,868,667 (Wed - $973,884)

7) The Dark Knight Rises - $413,861,764 (Wed - $1,196,744)

8) Iron Man 3 - $387,631,585 (Wed - $808,293)

9) Pirates Of The Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest - $383,881,830 (Wed - $1,225,457) 

10) Shrek 2 - $380,509,910 (Mon - $1,886,647)

Spoiler

11) Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - $380,342,669 (Mon - $1,128,497)

12) The Hunger Games: Catching Fire - $377,884,011 (Wed - $2,528,150)

13) Toy Story 3 - $368,682,193 (Wed - $1,761,406)

14) Harry Potter 7b:  Deathly Hallows Part 2 - $360,565,265 (Wed - $927,487)

15) The Hunger Games - $360,163,155 (Wed - $944,136)

16) Spiderman - $358,505,354 (Wed - $1,521,914) 

17) Star Wars 3: ROTS - $350,346,885 (Tue - $1,076,732)

18) Spiderman 2 - $345,683,315 (Mon - $1,242,721) 

19) Transformers: Dark of the Moon - $338,838,869 (Mon - 831,144)

20) Furious 7 - $332,653,095 (Wed - $480,115)

21) Star Wars 1: TPM - $330,443,466 (Mon - $2,370,597)

22) Lord Of The Rings: ROTK - $329,040,393 (Mon - $2,228,291) 

23) Despicable Me 2 - $327,966,980 (Mon - $1,555,395)

24) Spiderman 3 - $320,558,568 (Wed - $711,727) 

25) The Passion Of The Christ - $316,345,913 (Mon - $1,193,135)

26) Alice in Wonderland - $312,796,786 (Wed - $873,985)

27) Inside Out - $311,472,923 (Wed - $1,528,855)

28) American Sniper - $308,800,018 (Wed - $1,037,497)(1)

29) Minions - $306,831,810 (Wed – $1,061,820)

30) Shrek The Third - $300,965,639 (Wed - $1,302,464)

31) Lord Of The Rings: TT - $300,122,052 (Mon - $2,229,602)

32) Transformers - $296,379,328 (Sun - $1,937,792)

33) The Hunger Games:  Mockingjay Part 1 - $293,970,225 (Wed - $987,657)

34) Iron Man 2 - $293,907,591 (Wed - $848,031)

35) Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $292,966,296 (Tue - $978,052) 

36) Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World's End - $289,838,885 (Wed - $887,597)

37) The Twilight Saga:  Eclipse - $288,848,358 (Mon - $648,451)

38) Harry Potter 6:  HBP - $284,616,272 (Mon - $737,247)

39) Guardians of the Galaxy - $283,566,704 (Wed - $974,670)

40) Man of Steel - $282,735,742 (Wed - $542,089)

41) The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - $280,327,393 (Wed - $638,323)

42) Iron Man - $280,045,742 (Wed - $1,312,678)

43) The Twilight Saga:  Breaking Dawn Part 2 - $278,452,299 (Wed - $494,274)

44) The Twilight Saga:  New Moon - $277,523,522 (Wed - $903,460)

45) Harry Potter 5: OOTP - $272,828,538 (Mon - $781,150)

46) Star Wars 2: AOTC - $272,791,097 (Tue - $1,028,620)

47) Harry Potter 7a:  Deathly Hallows Part 1 - $268,711,916 (Wed - $903,132)

48) The Twilight Saga:  Breaking Dawn Part 1 - $268,192,542 (Wed - $515,186)

49) Skyfall - $264,414,319 (Wed - $963,787)

 

1)     Includes $3.4 million before wide release

·         Shrek 2 overtakes Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen to enter into the Top 10.

·         Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith passes $350 million.

·         Shrek the Third and The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers both surpass the $300 million mark on Day 34.

 

Edited January 21, 2016 by e1828

[Wrath]

52 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Grr, damn snowstorms always getting in the way of box office this time of year. I've seen a movie in a Colorado blizzard before, priorities people. 

 

 

Eh, I've seen blizzards in Colorado. Its so dry there that the snow ends up really light and powdery. I've seen Boulder get 6" of snow and the next day be totally clean even though it stayed cold the whole time. It didn't melt, it just blew away.

 

East coast snow tends to be a lot heavier and some areas are expecting ridiculous amounts of snow. Richmond is expecting ~25" of snow. For comparison the all-time record for snowfall from a single storm is 20" and that was set in 1940. This storm is expected to crush that. DC freaks out if it gets 2-3" of snow, and this storm could drop 15+".

 

I bet Mid-Atlantic (VA to NYC) will come in around 20% of normal this weekend.

[terrestrial]

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

$1,814,233

-24%

3,822

-312

$475

$863,148,249

 

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

$1,375,849

-25%

2,389

--

$576

$22,437,265

Daddy's Home

$483,719

-31%

3,322

-161

$146

$133,044,855

The Big Short

$438,262

-24%

1,765

-764

$248

$52,772,014

Anomalisa

$29,389

-6%

37

20

$794

$1,006,952

 

The Hateful Eight

$341,345

-25%

2,385

-553

$143

$49,270,774

Carol

$152,245

-13%

790

265

$193

$9,782,439

Macbeth (2015) $5,846 28% 19 -3 $308 $1,045,023

Burnt

$145

27%

4

1

$36

$13,601,821

 

Concussion (2015)

$87,305

-30%

1,041

-1015

$84

$33,459,602

Spectre

$28,315

-15%

288

-91

$98

$199,072,464

 

Creed

$75,707

-20%

878

-123

$86

$107,735,567

Point Break (2015)

$41,587

-36%

504

-1477

$83

$28,129,196

In the Heart of the Sea

$18,392

-22%

236

14

$78

$24,544,364

The 33

$1,154

-12%

34

-48

$34

$12,226,361

 

 

 

[terrestrial]

THR Box Office ‏@THRBoxOffice

Box-Office Preview: Winter Storm Jonas Could Wreak Havoc on Moviegoing in Northeast http://thr.cm/RtAFsi 

[terrestrial]

IMAX ‏@IMAX 

The battle for eternity begins in @GodsofEgypt, coming to IMAX 3D on February 26!

 

Quote

 

Jonas is expected to bring heavy snow, strong winds and blizzard conditions to the Northeast between Friday afternoon and Sunday morning. New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio has already issued a weather state of emergency, saying the storm could be one of the worst in history.

...

Generally speaking, the Northeast makes up about 20 percent of the overall box-office gross; New York, 7 percent to 8 percent.

 

 

[terrestrial]

The usual...

 

Day	Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens	Avatar	Jurassic World	The Avengers	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Day: 0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0
Day: 1	$119.119.282	$26.752.099	$81.953.950	$80.813.985	$34.450.834	$37.125.547
Day: 2	$187.413.486	$52.281.135	$151.598.780	$150.371.975	$51.470.821	$64.865.362
Day: 3	$247.966.675	$77.025.481	$208.806.270	$207.438.708	$73.282.370	$84.617.303
Day: 4	$288.076.417	$93.411.301	$234.151.090	$226.337.707	$100.774.423	$92.355.596
Day: 5	$325.438.146	$109.497.762	$258.493.605	$244.014.897	$124.100.534	$100.210.686
Day: 6	$363.460.329	$125.943.053	$278.389.075	$257.627.807	$137.663.742	$106.537.873
Day: 7	$390.856.054	$137.094.051	$296.211.655	$270.019.373	$150.139.984	$113.152.900
Day: 8	$440.181.717	$160.189.097	$325.326.090	$299.242.890	$157.684.384	$123.231.727
Day: 9	$496.913.249	$188.463.503	$364.438.555	$342.148.409	$171.670.604	$137.391.893
Day: 10	$540.058.914	$212.711.184	$402.800.095	$373.071.647	$190.822.800	$150.041.265
Day: 11	$571.420.943	$232.129.323	$414.366.320	$380.995.436	$208.072.067	$156.938.532
Day: 12	$600.949.526	$250.419.951	$427.496.780	$389.473.290	$222.268.708	$168.177.061
Day: 13	$629.034.583	$268.886.074	$436.936.980	$395.813.047	$232.759.000	$179.565.290
Day: 14	$651.967.269	$283.624.210	$445.840.805	$402.021.415	$241.937.000	$189.700.814
Day: 15	$686.361.421	$308.898.218	$460.533.690	$417.257.461	$249.400.000	$200.320.148
Day: 16	$720.729.671	$334.733.769	$483.013.980	$440.844.530	$262.230.583	$211.908.785
Day: 17	$742.208.942	$352.114.898	$500.373.420	$457.665.517	$272.832.713	$221.626.882
Day: 18	$750.230.824	$360.209.452	$506.899.800	$463.353.451	$283.395.934	$228.546.604
Day: 19	$758.198.252	$367.536.685	$514.374.155	$468.271.215	$290.410.961	$238.001.325
Day: 20	$764.408.684	$374.445.852	$520.362.305	$472.239.621	$292.793.000	$242.450.337
Day: 21	$770.381.043	$380.540.297	$527.300.955	$476.684.788	$294.972.000	$246.289.507
Day: 22	$781.125.423	$393.820.950	$539.128.560	$486.349.111	$296.894.000	$251.461.852
Day: 23	$800.329.495	$415.090.487	$547.667.605	$500.415.495	$298.111.838	$259.090.870
Day: 24	$812.734.828	$430.846.514	$556.542.980	$513.371.659	$301.700.000	$263.834.893
Day: 25	$815.843.529	$435.957.707	$560.692.030	$523.907.202	$308.228.208	$265.146.005
Day: 26	$819.687.937	$441.024.441	$565.531.445	$527.173.955	$312.320.936	$266.717.281
Day: 27	$822.802.874	$445.768.203	$569.287.130	$529.688.996	$313.497.000	$267.891.777
Day: 28	$825.932.841	$450.467.005	$572.538.320	$532.463.980	$314.716.000	$269.044.187
Day: 29	$832.261.795	$460.861.269	$577.957.895	$538.105.622	$315.773.000	$271.393.243
Day: 30	$843.290.309	$478.115.377	$585.390.455	$547.123.535	$316.592.632	$275.583.907
Day: 31	$852.274.958	$493.252.617	$590.689.595	$552.950.398	$318.968.891	$278.212.618
Day: 32	$858.953.106	$504.868.451	$592.840.220	$554.992.773	$323.583.085	$278.869.783
Day: 33	$861.334.016	$509.059.398	$595.627.430	$557.214.486	$326.812.102	$279.689.070
Day: 34	$863.148.249	$512.852.205	$597.829.670	$559.076.546	$329.040.393	$280.327.393
Day: 35		$516.797.418	$599.773.835	$561.050.725	$329.802.000	$280.989.741
Day: 36		$525.825.912	$603.031.100	$564.387.649	$330.401.000	$282.442.200
Day: 37		$542.151.962	$607.940.375	$568.934.514	$331.032.242	$285.262.419
Day: 38		$551.741.499	$611.228.810	$572.300.463	$332.500.000	$287.166.682
Day: 39		$554.981.691	$612.601.315	$573.685.968	$335.700.055	$288.613.051
Day: 40		$558.179.737	$614.331.250	$575.233.764	$337.817.998	$289.121.058
Day: 41		$561.317.325	$615.640.390	$576.583.182	$338.354.000	$289.530.240
Day: 42		$564.472.387	$616.902.775	$577.888.904	$338.910.000	$289.938.470
Day: 43		$571.911.813	$618.965.875	$580.095.059	$339.500.000	$290.655.265
Day: 44		$585.695.694	$621.941.500	$583.388.044	$340.021.012	$292.303.032
Day: 45		$595.752.416	$624.083.950	$586.794.371	$341.400.000	$293.323.831
Day: 46		$598.453.037	$625.009.700	$587.927.710	$344.131.995	$293.562.965
Day: 47		$601.141.551	$626.094.150	$589.091.616	$345.331.815	$293.831.138
Day: 48		$603.789.348	$626.920.500	$590.193.264	$345.735.000	$294.051.480
Day: 49		$606.493.323	$627.699.630	$591.247.781	$346.151.000	$294.292.520
Day: 50		$612.653.642	$628.770.350	$593.460.187	$346.532.000	$294.791.435
Day: 51		$624.193.440	$630.386.910	$596.501.976	$346.839.672	$295.799.649
Day: 52		$629.344.204	$631.601.030	$598.425.442	$347.700.000	$296.193.684
Day: 53		$631.595.771	$632.193.750	$599.387.534	$349.762.348	$296.348.737
Day: 54		$633.621.035	$632.834.270	$600.377.080	$351.133.343	$296.541.937
Day: 55		$635.470.349	$633.318.770	$601.215.735	$351.441.343	$296.696.970
Day: 56		$637.605.653	$633.726.780	$602.083.073	$351.727.000	$296.865.052
Day: 57		$642.146.324	$634.280.685	$603.388.594	$351.994.000	$297.174.579
Day: 58		$651.346.762	$635.114.340	$605.205.241	$352.277.575	$297.877.452
Day: 59		$661.217.278	$635.673.840	$606.504.744	$353.100.000	$298.333.426
Day: 60		$666.388.502	$635.936.805	$607.219.521	$355.035.095	$298.481.792
Day: 61		$668.224.829	$636.272.505	$607.764.276	$356.464.575	$298.609.930
Day: 62		$669.935.879	$636.513.090	$608.482.552	$357.367.856	$298.722.132
Day: 63		$671.721.154	$636.731.640	$608.959.760	$357.702.000	$298.884.345
Day: 64		$675.615.172	$637.067.430	$609.640.578	$358.001.000	$299.101.408
Day: 65		$683.071.751	$637.613.550	$610.558.801	$358.268.479	$299.527.804
Day: 66		$687.962.011	$637.971.480	$611.127.884	$358.900.000	$299.874.706
Day: 67		$689.237.048	$638.126.505	$611.389.326	$360.222.047	$300.161.285
Day: 68		$690.499.726	$638.322.290	$611.701.097	$361.118.934	$300.249.423
Day: 69		$691.701.910	$638.473.570	$611.973.433	$361.326.000	$300.322.891
Day: 70		$692.904.794	$638.620.980	$612.261.732	$361.541.000	$300.401.896
Day: 71		$695.981.544	$638.887.990	$612.657.166	$361.742.000	$300.532.101
Day: 72		$702.621.374	$639.307.200	$613.244.349	$361.940.947	$300.797.269
Day: 73		$706.560.068	$639.568.530	$613.660.486	$362.400.000	$300.952.379
Day: 74		$707.818.745	$639.663.325	$613.849.210	$363.400.000	$300.997.848
Day: 75		$709.304.322	$639.778.350	$614.070.615	$364.115.612	$301.044.732
Day: 76		$710.842.764	$639.872.800	$614.265.453	$364.392.000	$301.085.807
Day: 77		$712.489.342	$639.967.785	$614.438.014	$364.670.000	$301.134.992
Day: 78		$714.463.378	$640.760.745	$614.628.102	$364.913.000	$301.198.249
Day: 79		$718.126.396	$642.136.035	$614.883.015	$365.172.348	$301.324.866
Day: 80		$720.607.444	$642.978.555	$615.058.425	$366.000.000	$301.402.746
Day: 81		$721.425.412	$643.269.755	$615.156.789	$367.326.659	$301.424.668
Day: 82		$722.207.106	$643.579.580	$615.280.156	$368.210.170	$301.451.679
Day: 83		$722.954.237	$643.839.335	$615.373.694	$368.432.000	$301.473.018
Day: 84		$723.744.022	$644.043.640	$615.483.851	$368.661.000	$301.495.997
Day: 85		$725.429.879	$644.632.765		$368.873.000	$301.592.562
Day: 86		$728.329.714	$645.669.625		$369.126.293	$301.765.469
Day: 87		$730.270.443	$646.737.905	$615.996.809	$369.600.000	$301.874.933
Day: 88		$730.942.185	$647.374.160		$370.521.028	$301.921.098
Day: 89		$731.621.183	$647.516.055		$371.147.794	$301.976.034
Day: 90		$732.229.805	$647.626.080		$371.359.000	$302.023.697
Day: 91		$732.880.952	$647.728.195	$616.351.422	$371.590.000	$302.075.203
Day: 92		$733.938.158	$648.026.290		$371.790.000	$302.162.441
Day: 93		$735.684.163	$648.622.480		$372.008.809	$302.304.675
Day: 94		$736.907.957	$648.908.885	$616.768.487	$372.400.000	$302.393.021
Day: 95		$737.266.471	$648.990.715		$372.968.676	$302.421.626
Day: 96		$737.627.370	$649.084.725		$373.359.557	$302.454.449
Day: 97		$737.976.702	$649.160.275		$373.481.000	$302.485.958
Day: 98		$738.393.054	$649.224.035	$616.768.487	$373.603.000	$302.517.733
Day: 99		$738.919.556	$649.397.365		$373.721.000	$302.567.059
Day: 100		$739.798.846	$649.709.675		$373.850.755	$302.648.445
Day: 101		$740.440.529	$649.860.515	$617.039.310		$302.695.938
Day: 102		$740.684.275	$649.905.695			$302.715.735
Day: 103		$740.916.066	$649.958.405		$374.556.572	$302.738.507
Day: 104		$741.140.003	$650.010.785			$302.757.024
Day: 105		$741.352.439	$650.052.290	$617.446.423		$302.779.925
Day: 106		$741.699.502	$650.163.170			$302.805.622
Day: 107		$742.076.465	$650.359.290		$374.830.647	$302.833.169
Day: 108		$742.332.678	$650.442.740	$617.595.391		$302.849.493
Day: 109		$742.497.942	$650.465.295			$302.860.946
Day: 110		$742.605.267	$650.493.055		$375.204.550	$302.871.198
Day: 111		$742.721.098	$650.518.930			$302.880.835
Day: 112		$742.844.322	$650.539.750	$617.685.111		$302.893.299
Day: 113		$743.083.175	$650.621.115			$302.905.358
Day: 114		$743.448.904	$650.760.850		$375.378.000	$302.922.520
Day: 115		$743.688.973	$650.831.970	$617.800.446		$302.932.624
Day: 116		$743.767.458	$650.852.290			$302.935.557
Day: 117		$743.853.911	$650.875.150		$375.667.233	$302.938.604
Day: 118		$743.935.257	$650.896.740			$302.941.346
Day: 119		$744.020.453	$650.917.060	$617.849.893		$302.944.389
Day: 120		$744.275.947	$650.976.600	$618.233.009		$302.953.301
Day: 121		$744.750.989	$651.072.535	$618.921.193	$375.831.230	$302.966.623
Day: 122		$745.023.267	$651.128.985	$619.760.594		$302.975.075
Day: 123		$745.115.019	$651.157.740	$620.323.837		$302.976.741
Day: 124		$745.219.191	$651.175.845		$376.058.551	$302.978.573
Day: 125		$745.330.634	$651.193.850			$302.980.257

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

43 minutes ago, tokila said:

it already has a 2.5 multi and is seeing small drops. I think 200 is fairly safe for it it. Expect a decent bump in Feb when it wins BP and Leo gets BAILR.

Can you map out for how it does this? I'd like to see it happen but see $175M+ DOM as the absolute maximum. Do you see it staying over $10M+ for the next three or four weekends?

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

42 minutes ago, Wrath said:

 

Eh, I've seen blizzards in Colorado. Its so dry there that the snow ends up really light and powdery. I've seen Boulder get 6" of snow and the next day be totally clean even though it stayed cold the whole time. It didn't melt, it just blew away.

 

East coast snow tends to be a lot heavier and some areas are expecting ridiculous amounts of snow. Richmond is expecting ~25" of snow. For comparison the all-time record for snowfall from a single storm is 20" and that was set in 1940. This storm is expected to crush that. DC freaks out if it gets 2-3" of snow, and this storm could drop 15+".

 

I bet Mid-Atlantic (VA to NYC) will come in around 20% of normal this weekend.

DC is probably getting more snow than Richmond.

[75Live]

yeah I have to drive through the snow Saturday morning.  Should be a blast 

[spizzer]

14 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

DC is probably getting more snow than Richmond.

 

And Loudoun more than DC/Fairfax.  In 2010 Dulles recorded 32.9" for Snowmaggeddon #1, and then another ~11" in Snowmaggeddon #2 a couple days later.  I've been perusing a host of weather boards for the last 1.5 days; some of the higher end models have us hitting high 30s/low 40s with this one, almost matching those two collectively with one storm alone.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

9 minutes ago, spizzer said:

 

And Loudoun more than DC/Fairfax.  In 2010 Dulles recorded 32.9" for Snowmaggeddon #1, and then another ~11" in Snowmaggeddon #2 a couple days later.  I've been perusing a host of weather boards for the last 1.5 days; some of the higher end models have us hitting high 30s/low 40s with this one, almost matching those two collectively with one storm alone.

Remember that storm, was insane. I've been looking at a few weather boards as well (slow days at work). Luckily, I'm in extreme western Fairfax County, and it looks like we will get quite a bit more snow than DC/Arlington/ E. Fairfax County. No day off at work tomorrow, but it sounds like we are getting off early. First sign of snow, I know at least I'm leaving.

 

EDIT- Metrobus closing at 5pm tomorrow, Metrorail at 11pm. Closed for the weekend. Definitely getting off early now.

Edited January 21, 2016 by Jayhawk

[Wrath]

11 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

Remember that storm, was insane. I've been looking at a few weather boards as well (slow days at work). Luckily, I'm in extreme western Fairfax County, and it looks like we will get quite a bit more snow than DC/Arlington/ E. Fairfax County. No day off at work tomorrow, but it sounds like we are getting off early. First sign of snow, I know at least I'm leaving.

 

EDIT- Metrobus closing at 5pm tomorrow, Metrorail at 11pm. Closed for the weekend. Definitely getting off early now.

 

Wrathette #1's school cancelled tomorrow at about 10 am this morning, and #2's cancelled tomorrow about an hour ago. Its not supposed to really start here until 11 or so and I work close to home and have 4wd so I'll probably be the last one out here, likely around 1-2 depending on how heavy it is.

 

More directly on topic, the real question is going to be NYC.  DC is toast for the weekend, and everything between it and central NJ will be extremely spotty, at best. But I've seen extremely varied predicts for NYC, ranging from 2-3" (which will hurt Friday, but potentially boost Sat/Sun once it gets cleaned up with a trivial overall net impact) to 15+" which will drop it to zero. 

 

Edit - The WxRisk guy, who is a weather genius if anyone on in mid-Atlantic doesn't know about him, says ~6" for NYC.

Edited January 21, 2016 by Wrath

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[Joel M]

47 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Can you map out for how it does this? I'd like to see it happen but see $175M+ DOM as the absolute maximum. Do you see it staying over $10M+ for the next three or four weekends?

 

Assuming it's at 103M after Thursday

 

with 30% weekly drops

wk3  31,6

wk4  22,1

wk5  15,5

wk6  10,8

wk7   7,6

wk8   5,3

wk9   3,7

wk10 2,6

total  202,2 m

 

with 35% weekly drops

wk3  29,3

wk4  19,1

wk5  12,4

wk6   8,1

wk7   5,2

wk8   3,4

wk9   2,2

wk10 1,4

total  184,1 m

 

I guess if you think the Revenant is gonna sweep the guilds and the oscars it can have the amazing drops to carry it to 200M. But I agree with you. It'll win just DiCaprio and a couple of technicals and end up around 170-180M.

 

[Jim Shorts]

1 hour ago, Wrath said:

 

Eh, I've seen blizzards in Colorado. Its so dry there that the snow ends up really light and powdery. I've seen Boulder get 6" of snow and the next day be totally clean even though it stayed cold the whole time. It didn't melt, it just blew away.

 

East coast snow tends to be a lot heavier and some areas are expecting ridiculous amounts of snow. Richmond is expecting ~25" of snow. For comparison the all-time record for snowfall from a single storm is 20" and that was set in 1940. This storm is expected to crush that. DC freaks out if it gets 2-3" of snow, and this storm could drop 15+".

 

I bet Mid-Atlantic (VA to NYC) will come in around 20% of normal this weekend.

 

We had a light dusting here in DC last night and it basically stopped all traffic in the area.  I can't wait for the clusterfuck that's expected this weekend.