Presales Tracking Thread(Maoyan, Taopiaopiao etc)

[LeoC]

3 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

So finally the pace slows down, more like 10.75mn at end of the day.

Venom also slowed down on Saturday. I wonder if there is a pettern out there.

[Cooper Legion]

Early afternoon was pretty similar to yesterday, but picked up some last hour. I think mid 14s, right about 30%

[charlie Jatinder]

Did ¥0.8mn in last 3 hours or so, if that pace continues till end of day on average, that would be around ¥14.5mn plus.

 

I am more interested in the absolute change it will get than the percent one since it is bigger than rest in numbers so percent may go down, if it do.

Edited March 3, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Cooper Legion]

Been keeping track for my own use, figure I might as well post here for posterity. Will keep updated with edits, but not after 17:00 or so due to my time zone.   

 

Spoiler

 

9:04 11.38

10:00 11.42

11:01  11.57

12:00  11.75

12:30  11.805

13:00  11.89

14:00 12.11

14:30 12.25

15:00 12.36

15:34  12.495

16:02  12.57

16:30  12.70

17:00   12.79

17:30   12.89

 

Edited March 3, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Cooper Legion]

Okay, off to sleep now. Yesterday added .52 from 14:00 to 17:30 to get to 9.96, then 2x that to get to 11.     

 

 

Today is .78 same time period, adds double again would be 14.45. See how close when I wake up.

[charlie Jatinder]

Captain Marvel T-4 Days

Date	Gross in ¥ ('000)	Gross in $	Change	Shows / Avg		Gross-to-Date
Mar. 07, 2019	¥2,900	$433,000	19%	5,919	$73	$433,000
Mar. 8, 2019	¥14,450	$2,157,000	30%	59,950	$36	$2,590,000
Mar. 09, 2019	¥6,200	$925,000	30%	32,735	$28	$3,515,000
Mar. 10, 2019	¥2,700	$403,000	23%	27,443	$15	$3,918,000

 

Comps

Spoiler

Time	Captain Marvel		Venom		Captain America: Civil War
	Gross	Change	Gross	Change	Gross	Change
14 Days Out
13 Days Out
12 Days Out
11 Days Out
10 Days Out
9 Days Out			¥2.99
8 Days Out	¥2.15		¥4.48	50%	¥2.40
7 Days Out	¥5.03	134%	¥6.38	42%	¥3.60	50%
6 Days Out	¥8.44	68%	¥8.46	33%	¥6.20	72%
5 Days Out	¥11.10	32%	¥10.30	22%	¥8.10	31%
4 Days Out	¥14.45	30%	¥13.10	27%	¥11.90	47%
3 Days Out			¥17.84	36%	¥16.30	37%
2 Days Out			¥24.75	39%	¥25.40	56%
1 Day Out			¥34.09	38%	¥37.90	49%
Final			¥60.06	76%	¥65.80	74%
Opening Day	¥0.00		¥223.38		¥181.00
PSm			3.72		2.75

 

Still outselling all of them, however in term of absolute T-4th day, it was behind Civil War ¥3.8mn and CW exploded after that. It was better than Venom's ¥2.8mn. In fact, now that I am typing, it's a little more than middle of both. Cutting the crap, Venom added ¥47mn this point afterward & Civil War added ¥54mn. If Captain pull out the mid of two, i.e. ¥51mn, it will stand at ¥65.5mn.

 

The absolute cases of Venom or Civil War now on would give ¥61.5mn and ¥68.5mn respectively.

 

Edited March 4, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[POTUS 2020]

56 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Captain Marvel T-4 Days

Midnight: ¥2.9mn (+19%)

Friday: ¥14.45mn (+30%)

Saturday: ¥6.2mn (+30%)

Sunday: ¥2.7mn (+23%)

 

Total: ¥26.25mn or $3.9mn (+30%)

 

Comps

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14veIao3B3dsFN11hxTEdpCgqkrdb9fq2PX3HiNH060s/edit?usp=drivesdk

 

Still outselling all of them, however in term of absolute T-4th day, it was behind Civil War ¥3.8mn and CW exploded after that. It was better than Venom's ¥2.8mn. In fact, now that I am typing, it's a little more than middle of both. Cutting the crap, Venom added ¥47mn this point afterward & Civil War added ¥54mn. If Captain pull out the mid of two, i.e. ¥51mn, it will stand at ¥65.5mn.

 

The absolute cases of Venom or Civil War now on would give ¥61.5mn and ¥68.5mn respectively.

 

 

 

I am not on PC today, so bear with the links guys. I will edit tomorrow.

 

PS are nearly 10% larger than VM but on a stronger trajectory and 20% larger than CW and on a similar trajectory. If it follows either  % gains going forward: 66m+ vs VM or  79m CW

Time	Captain Marvel		Venom		Captain America: Civil War		Ant-Man and The Wasp		Black Panther		Spider-Man: Homecoming
	Gross	Change	Gross	Change	Gross	Change	Gross	Change	Gross	Change	Gross	Change
14
13
12									¥2.46
11									¥3.15	28%
10							¥2.82		¥3.65	16%	¥1.86
9			¥2.99				¥3.47	23%	¥4.22	16%	¥2.60	40%
8	¥2.15		¥4.48	50%	¥2.40		¥4.09	18%	¥4.93	17%	¥3.70	42%
7	¥5.03	134%	¥6.38	42%	¥3.60	50%	¥4.81	18%	¥5.77	17%	¥4.80	30%
6	¥8.44	68%	¥8.46	33%	¥6.20	72%	¥5.87	22%	¥6.82	18%	¥6.00	25%
5	¥11.10	32%	¥10.30	22%	¥8.10	31%	¥7.08	21%	¥8.19	20%	¥7.50	25%
4	¥14.45	30%	¥13.10	27%	¥11.90	47%	¥8.43	19%	¥10.19	24%	¥9.00	20%
3	¥20.00	38%	¥17.84	36%	¥16.30	37%	¥11.25	33%	¥14.03	38%	¥10.50	17%
2	¥28.00	40%	¥24.75	39%	¥25.40	56%	¥15.42	37%	¥19.20	37%	¥13.75	31%
1	¥40.00	43%	¥34.09	38%	¥37.90	49%	¥23.68	54%	¥26.78	39%	¥20.00	45%
Final	¥70.00	75%	¥60.06	76%	¥65.80	74%	¥46.55	97%	¥45.50	70%	¥36.00	80%
Opening Day	¥238.00		¥223.38		¥181.00		¥154.49		¥131.77		¥134.63
PSm	3.4		3.72		2.75		3.32		2.90		3.74

 

Edited March 3, 2019 by POTUS 2020

[charlie Jatinder]

Just hopefully it don't pull a BP. BP also had strong pre-sales, about 30% ahead Homecoming, we know how things went there. Fingers crossed.

[POTUS 2020]

On 2/17/2017 at 1:54 PM, fmpro said:

 

Always hard to predict but 100mill+ OD in yuan and a 100 mill $ total looks very very likely based on that presale number

 

On 2/19/2017 at 2:50 PM, POTUS 2020 said:

RE PS at 13m. Could  approach 200m OD if PS keeps this pace.

 

On 2/19/2017 at 10:24 PM, fmpro said:

 

We have seen presales slowing down in the last 2 days compared to other big movies and that can also happen here.. it looks extremely frontloaded when you look at sat and sun numbers.. So i really think that people should calm down a bit and don't treat this like Avatar 2.

I'm saying 120 mill yuan for now with the chance of more

 

On 2/20/2017 at 9:49 AM, POTUS 2020 said:

PS have been increasing at 40%~ per day(standard rate) since Friday and is on 40%+ pace today going from 13m last night and pacing to 19m+ tonight.

Continuing daily at 40% thru Thur morning and  a 75% increase on its last day takes it to 67m Fri 1am.

At least 180m OD at 2.75x PS. A few have been >3x PS lately. 

i love looking at these old posts....when I'm right of course

I threw RE6 in the chart since it also had a short PS run and had strong daily gains.  CM 10% ahead.  The last day wasn't 75% plus but it was a gamer flick.

I upped the daily gains on this chart. Could happen

Time	Captain Marvel		Venom		Captain America: Civil War				Resident Evil 6		Spider-Man: Homecoming
	Gross	Change	Gross	Change	Gross	Change	Gross	Change	Gross	Change	Gross	Change
14
13
12
11
10							¥2.82				¥1.86
9			¥2.99				¥3.47	23%			¥2.60	40%
8	¥2.15		¥4.48	50%	¥2.40		¥4.09	18%			¥3.70	42%
7	¥5.03	134%	¥6.38	42%	¥3.60	50%	¥4.81	18%	¥3.00		¥4.80	30%
6	¥8.44	68%	¥8.46	33%	¥6.20	72%	¥5.87	22%	¥6.00	100%	¥6.00	25%
5	¥11.10	32%	¥10.30	22%	¥8.10	31%	¥7.08	21%	¥8.50	42%	¥7.50	25%
4	¥14.45	30%	¥13.10	27%	¥11.90	47%	¥8.43	19%	¥13.00	53%	¥9.00	20%
3	¥20.50	42%	¥17.84	36%	¥16.30	37%	¥11.25	33%	¥19.50	50%	¥10.50	17%
2	¥29.00	41%	¥24.75	39%	¥25.40	56%	¥15.42	37%	¥29.00	49%	¥13.75	31%
1	¥43.50	50%	¥34.09	38%	¥37.90	49%	¥23.68	54%	¥41.20	42%	¥20.00	45%
Final	¥76.00	75%	¥60.06	76%	¥65.80	74%	¥46.55	97%	¥68.00	65%	¥36.00	80%
Opening Day	¥258.40		¥223.38		¥181.00		¥154.49		¥213.00		¥134.63
PSm	3.4		3.72		2.75		3.32		3.13		3.74

 

[Cooper Legion]

7 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

adds double again would be 14.45. See how close when I wake up.

 

2 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Friday: ¥14.45mn (+30%)

 

[Stewart]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

 

 

Edited March 3, 2019 by feasby007

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

 

 

I want the timestone back. 

Edited March 3, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Just hopefully it don't pull a BP. BP also had strong pre-sales, about 30% ahead Homecoming, we know how things went there. Fingers crossed.

The PS run was in line with normal daily bumps and predictable .  It's just that it had one of the lowest PSm's in months due to an 8.4 rating

(cat) shit happens, what can you do.  There is a cat in this too

[fmpro]

3 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said:

 

 

 

i love looking at these old posts....when I'm right of course

I threw RE6 in the chart since it also had a short PS run and had strong daily gains.  CM 10% ahead.  The last day wasn't 75% plus but it was a gamer flick.

I upped the daily gains on this chart. Could happen

Time	Captain Marvel		Venom		Captain America: Civil War				Resident Evil 6		Spider-Man: Homecoming
	Gross	Change	Gross	Change	Gross	Change	Gross	Change	Gross	Change	Gross	Change
14
13
12
11
10							¥2.82				¥1.86
9			¥2.99				¥3.47	23%			¥2.60	40%
8	¥2.15		¥4.48	50%	¥2.40		¥4.09	18%			¥3.70	42%
7	¥5.03	134%	¥6.38	42%	¥3.60	50%	¥4.81	18%	¥3.00		¥4.80	30%
6	¥8.44	68%	¥8.46	33%	¥6.20	72%	¥5.87	22%	¥6.00	100%	¥6.00	25%
5	¥11.10	32%	¥10.30	22%	¥8.10	31%	¥7.08	21%	¥8.50	42%	¥7.50	25%
4	¥14.45	30%	¥13.10	27%	¥11.90	47%	¥8.43	19%	¥13.00	53%	¥9.00	20%
3	¥20.50	42%	¥17.84	36%	¥16.30	37%	¥11.25	33%	¥19.50	50%	¥10.50	17%
2	¥29.00	41%	¥24.75	39%	¥25.40	56%	¥15.42	37%	¥29.00	49%	¥13.75	31%
1	¥43.50	50%	¥34.09	38%	¥37.90	49%	¥23.68	54%	¥41.20	42%	¥20.00	45%
Final	¥76.00	75%	¥60.06	76%	¥65.80	74%	¥46.55	97%	¥68.00	65%	¥36.00	80%
Opening Day	¥258.40		¥223.38		¥181.00		¥154.49		¥213.00		¥134.63
PSm	3.4		3.72		2.75		3.32		3.13		3.74

 

Damn you and your good memory @POTUS 2020 😂

 

You cant use this against me anymore then 🤨

[Cooper Legion]

I knew there was going to be a weekend vs weekday morning difference, but it's been coming in much bigger than I realized. Doubt the hourly patterns from Sat and Sun will be too applicable today, but today will hopefully be more applicable to Tues, Wed, maybe Thurs.        

 

As an aside, I absolutely love the live wealth of data here (even if it probably consumes allows for too much of my day to be consumed).

[charlie Jatinder]

Venom made ¥4.74mn on Monday before release and Civil War made ¥4.4mn. let's see it it can crack $5mn, though my bet would $4.55mn being safe.

[Cooper Legion]

Okay, so, I want to begin with several caveats:  

1) as mentioned before weekend vs weekday differences are sure to exist, and I haven’t hourly tracked a weekday before   

2) it’s very early in the day, not even noon   

3) 1 hour is a small sample size    

 

That said, 10-11 is when things started to get up to speed yesterday. And we just had such a surprisingly (to me) big hourly add that I feel compelled to comment. Between 10 and 11 was +.435. If it falls back to +.4 an hour for the next bit would be at about 16.8 14:00, 18.2 17:30, and then adding even just 1.5x that period would get to 20.3 for almost 6 added on the day.    

 

Will be updating half-hourly with commentary as to whether we still seem on that track or things slowing down.  

 

Spoiler

7:05  14.87

8:00  14.88

9:01 14.95

9:32  15.04

10:02 15.14

10:30  15.34

11:02  15.575

11:31  15.80

12:00 15.965

12:33 16.015

13:00 16.24

13:30 16.54  

14:02  16.73

14:33  16.94

15:00  17.15

15:30  17.35

16:00  17.51

16:30  17.67

17:00  17.83   

17:33  18.22

14:00 commentary: Okay, 4 hours chugging along is starting to be a healthier sample. Average of .4/hr, but think it will pick up. Now aiming for ~18.4 17:30, 20.8-22ish full day.   

 

17:00 interesting slowdown in the late afternoon here, .48 in the last 3 updates. 

Edited March 4, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

We are doing hourly in presales. What happens at Endgame. God knows.

[charlie Jatinder]

20 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Okay, so, I want to begin with several caveats:  

1) as mentioned before weekend vs weekday differences are sure to exist, and I haven’t hourly tracked a weekday before   

2) it’s very early in the day, not even noon   

3) 1 hour is a small sample size    

 

That said, 10-11 is when things started to get up to speed yesterday. And we just had such a surprisingly (to me) big hourly add that I feel compelled to comment. Between 10 and 11 was +.435. If it falls back to +.4 an hour for the next bit would be at about 16.8 14:00, 18.2 17:30, and then adding even just 1.5x that period would get to 20.3 for almost 6 added on the day.    

 

Will be updating half-hourly with commentary as to whether we still seem on that track or things slowing down.  

 

  Hide contents

7:05  14.87

8:00  14.88

9:01 14.95

9:32  15.04

10:02 15.14

10:30  15.34

11:02  15.575

 

It ain't slowing. Added ¥0.21mn in last 28 mins or so. If the pace continues, will be close to ¥20.5mn by end of day. 

 

 

Over ¥6mn full day. I was expecting ¥4.55mn. Higher Further Faster baby.

 

And this is when I opened the tab expecting something around ¥15mn till 11:30 😛

Edited March 4, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[Cooper Legion]

11 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

We are doing hourly in presales. What happens at Endgame. God knows.

The whole point of my excessive records for CM is practice for Endgame