BATMAN V SUPERMAN WEEKEND THREAD | 166.01M OW, New March OW Record. 420.4M WW OW.

[MyMovieCanBeatUpYourMovie]

It's too bad there isn't some company conducting random polling of moviegoers this weekend.  This would have been the perfect time to collect data on how devastating reviews impact a highly anticipated film.   I wish tracking were more of an exact science.

 

Deadpool, of course, would have been the perfect film to chart just the opposite, a highly anticipated film receiving overwhelmingly positive reviews.  Anecdotal evidence shows the effect is not zero, but I would love to know the percentages both ways.

[M37]

1 hour ago, boomboom234 said:

Never really 

If you consider Mockingjay part 2 a major blockbuster (anything north of $100 mil would be to me), then that one was way over-projected.   The OW total kept getting smaller throughout the week of release.    

[Cmasterclay]

So based on presales and sellout reports, what is a reasonable preview number to expect tonight, given 3D subcharges and IMAX? 25 million sounds about right, I'd say.

[Nova]

8 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

LOL, it's delayed one day in a few parts of Russia, it's not a nightmare for WB at all, it's going to do big, WB's going to be happy with the money and will maybe do some changes behind the scenes with the script or whatever to address some of the issues the critics are having. 

I'm talking about the critical reviews, the fact that in some parts of Europe it's opening less than MOS and then there is a bootleg version already going around. This isn't a perfect storm and if you want to make a ton of money (over a billion dollars) you need a movie that's a perfect storm. 

[Future Foundation]

9 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Not sure if this has been posted or not but WOW. WB is getting desperate.

 

http://www.theonion.com/article/batman-v-superman-promotion-urges-filmgoers-just-g-52623

 

It's The Onion.

[kayumanggi]

15 minutes ago, Nova said:

This movie is slowly becoming a nightmare for Warner Bros. imo and yes there are copies of it in the USA but who in their right mind would watch a bootleg version of a movie like this. 

 

Are you REALLY this optimistic?

Edited March 24, 2016 by kayumanggi

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

So based on presales and sellout reports, what is a reasonable preview number to expect tonight, given 3D subcharges and IMAX? 25 million sounds about right, I'd say.

24M is probably the floor, it's selling more than AOU did on Fandango but this is also more likely to be less walkup friendly tonight. 

Edited March 24, 2016 by WrathOfHan

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

I'm talking about the critical reviews, the fact that in some parts of Europe it's opening less than MOS and then there is a bootleg version already going around. This isn't a perfect storm and if you want to make a ton of money (over a billion dollars) you need a movie that's a perfect storm. 

The only place where it went under MoS was France because of the terrorist attacks.

 

Everywhere else it destroyed MoS from what I have read.

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

So based on presales and sellout reports, what is a reasonable preview number to expect tonight, given 3D subcharges and IMAX? 25 million sounds about right, I'd say.

 

With the 6pm start and the Good Friday holiday, I would be mildly surprised if it came in under $30 million for Thursday.   That being said, I think low $30s sounds about right.   

[water]

my wishful prediction: 145m OW x 2.1 multi = 305m

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, water said:

my wishful prediction: 145m OW x 2.1 multi = 305m

 

Edited March 24, 2016 by DAJK

[James]

I'd say it hits at least 30m in previews. I'm guessing 35-37m-ish.

[boomboom234]

12 minutes ago, Nova said:

I'm talking about the critical reviews, the fact that in some parts of Europe it's opening less than MOS and then there is a bootleg version already going around. This isn't a perfect storm and if you want to make a ton of money (over a billion dollars) you need a movie that's a perfect storm. 

Everywhere around the world save France it at least doubled Mos in a lot of places it will pass mos total Ow

[CJohn]

I don't think it will top Ultron's previews numbers. I will stick to my 165M OW prediction from a few months but drop the DOM total from 400M to 360M.

[department store basement]

22 minutes ago, incognitoo said:

 

Isn't... this from Smallville?

 

Correct. It's Fat Amy Adams.

[FlashMaster659]

2 minutes ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

Geeze, down to 32% now..

 

 

now below paul blart lol

[boomboom234]

It will earn a billion simple because OS it's doubling Mos and here it's guaranteed 350 so yeah

[excel1]

19 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

So based on presales and sellout reports, what is a reasonable preview number to expect tonight, given 3D subcharges and IMAX? 25 million sounds about right, I'd say.

 

That would be extremely low, actually, given that presales are well ahead of Ultron and TDKR, they're starting at 6, and many have tomorrow off so it is much more akin to a Friday night than a Thursday.

 

$40 million is my number.

[M37]

So i slogged my way through the "do the reviews matter" portion of this thread, and I have to shake my head at those of you who this film (or any) is critic proof.

 

My take:  this is a $200 million+ OW picture, that is being dragged down by the 'meh' consensus surrounding it prior to opening.  The reason we aren't seeing a drastic shift in projections as a result is that, after Man of Steel, this tepid reception is what most people expected, and had already been baked it into their forecasts.  The news this week only confirmed the assumption, and so there was no dramatic shift in projections.   Had we seen glowing reviews, there would have been a huge spike in ticket sales the last two days, and the question about whether or not it was going to top $200 or beat JW would be absolutely valid.   

 

Reviews (critical and WOM) = MOMENTUM.   Films have a natural baseline grossing potential from their content, and reviews can only serve to push that higher or lower.  We saw with Avengers, Deadpool, Guardians to name a few how positive puzz lifted them to heights most didn't see coming.   BvS is, unfortunately, being held back by (apparently) just not being very good.   It's still going to break $150 easy, but it could have been so much more.

 

Official Predictions:

TH = $31.7

FR = $52.4

SA = $51.6

SU = $38.0

TOTAL = $173.7

[Cmasterclay]

4 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:

It will earn a billion simple because OS it's doubling Mos and here it's guaranteed 350 so yeah

It is? Off a 150 OW, it would need a 2.33 multiplier to get to 350, which is not impossible obviously, but considering it has worse reviews and way more OW hype than MOS, which only had a 2.5 during summer weekdays, it seems difficult. 

Edited March 24, 2016 by Cmasterclay