Weekend Thread | RTH pg 197...Mother's Day not kind to CW but very kind to JB and MD CW 42, JB 9,7, MDD 6.1,Hunts 1.48...puts CW at about 178M

[MCKillswitch123]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

 

No way CW experiences those drops with incredible WOM.

 

I still think around 200 m is still in the cards.

 

Dude, w/much better WOM and no real mega sports event (NBA play-off is the closest I guess, but it's definitely no Mayweather/Pacquiao for sure), 30%+ drop is almost impossible. Marvel's 2nd biggest Saturday drop (behind Ultron) is only like 14-15% iirc. An Ultron multiplier w/even just a 10% smaller drop (23%) would put it above 200M, just slightly below Avengers 1 at around 204-205M. 200M+ is almost a lock at this point.

 

I'm still maintaining sub 200 to avoid overhype mode, but we'll see.

[grey ghost]

4 minutes ago, Amadeus said:

Another league? I would not be too surprised if Episode VIII's OW is on par with AoU and Episode IX's OW is on par with BvS. 

 

If episode 8 is good, episode 9 will be one of the most anticipated films of the 21st century. 

 

No way it makes less than Iron Man 3. 

[John Marston]

It will have a better Saturday hold than Uktron but a much worse Sunday hold

 

 

[Dementeleus]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

It could still beat AOU or even cross 200 m.

 

We still don't know what Friday or Saturday will look like.

 

JW made 18 m from Thursday previews and destroyed BvS OW.

 

 

 

JW is a terrible example, honestly. It's a June opener for a "dead" franchise with the last movie released over a decade ago.

 

We have a great comp -- ULTRON. Finesse the numbers slightly if you want (adjust Saturday up a notch, maybe Sunday down a notch), play around with it, but that's the basic range.

[Rolling Thunder]

It'll have enough gas to surpass AoU - you can be certain Disney will make that happen.  Thinking $75m/$195m right now.  Mother's Day on Sunday will help a bit, though this likely isn't a first choice among most Moms.

Edited May 6, 2016 by Rolling Thunder

[TommyA10]

7 minutes ago, Amadeus said:

Another league? I would not be too surprised if Episode VIII's OW is on par with AoU and Episode IX's OW is on par with BvS. 

TFA made 2x what AOU and 1.5x what TA did. There is no comparison.

It also opened with $50 million more IN DECEMBER. SW is in another league in the US, Europe, Australia and Japan.

[ecstasy]

7 minutes ago, SWXII said:

 

People were saying TFA 'records would be surpassed. This will be a stretch to do 200M now. 

 

 

 

[Dementeleus]

4 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Dude, w/much better WOM and no real mega sports event (NBA play-off is the closest I guess, but it's definitely no Mayweather/Pacquiao for sure), 30%+ drop is almost impossible. Marvel's 2nd biggest Saturday drop (behind Ultron) is only like 14-15% iirc. An Ultron multiplier w/even just a 10% smaller drop (23%) would put it above 200M, just slightly below Avengers 1 at around 204-205M. 200M+ is almost a lock at this point.

 

I'm still maintaining sub 200 to avoid overhype mode, but we'll see.

 

To get a better sense of Saturday, subtract all preview numbers from the Friday totals and look at the true Fri-Sat jumps.

[The Futurist]

Mothers love that Cap Am Ass.

[Bonenash]

8 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

Marvel movies tend to be slightly more backloaded, for whatever reason. BVS also had a weird weekend for holds/drops (Good Friday, Easter Sunday). And better reception probably would've given it better holds as well. 

 

 

Hmm i think marvel movies is more family oriented than DC so when you have YA and adult fans ready for DC thursday night it can be huge .

 

But families always show up on saturday and Sunday cause everyone is off work. So more people going to theater result more Box office that's logic.

 

The critic does not mean anything for Preview and friday and a little on Saturday. But it's SUnday where the WOM is kicking or not. And the drop on monday is the KEY for the legs to the movie.

 

i m begin to understand the US box office since 3 years i m in this site. A lot to learn i still have but i ve learn a lot^^.

 

Not need to panic even with the friday number^^ it's the saturday AND sunday number that matter.

 

And guys plez plez can we kick TFA off our mind cause really it's another Box office reality so let's compare with comparable.

 

 

Cheers.

 

[grey ghost]

What drop range are we looking at for Sunday/Mother's Day?

[MattW]

I'll disagree that fandango reports are complete fluff.  It's somewhat informative when they report that cap3 is selling better than ultron, indicates the possibility that it opens higher. Could be lower but probably not hugely lower.

 

However it's extremely informative when they don't report that a franchise movie is selling better than the previous entry, indicates that it will very likely open lower. That's the real value in fandango reports.

[redfirebird2008]

Even if you give Ultron an extra $10m due to the fight, that puts it at $201m and a 7.28 multiplier from the Thursday preview. Civil War would get around $182m with a similar performance. I think given the better WOM, $190m+ should happen. $200m is in play, but definitely not locked.

 

Even if the boxing thing didn't hurt it, Ultron already showed that Marvel openings are getting more frontloaded than they used to be. Over time, more of the general public is aware of these 7-8 PM Thursday shows.  Even without the boxing problem, Ultron was not going to beat The Avengers' $207.4m opening despite a Thursday preview that was 47.5% bigger than the midnight gross of the first Avengers movie.

[Rolling Thunder]

2 minutes ago, IMojammer said:

I'll disagree that fandango reports are complete fluff.  It's somewhat informative when they report that cap3 is selling better than ultron, indicates the possibility that it opens higher. Could be lower but probably not hugely lower.

 

However it's extremely informative when they don't report that a franchise movie is selling better than the previous entry, indicates that it will very likely open lower. That's the real value in fandango reports.

 

+1.  And in general, sequels are expected to outsell a predecessor.  It's the extent to which the current installment is surpassing another film that is the key piece of information that Fandango never provides.

[ecstasy]

24 minutes ago, Baumer said:

If we didn't have so many people predicting such insane numbers then this number and the eventual weekend number would be seen as absolutely huge. I now fully realize that this is more of an Avengers movie then it is Captain America but really it's Captain America 3 and it's going to open up to around double what Captain America 2 did. There's no way around it that's freaking huge.

 

Quoted for emphasis.

[grey ghost]

6 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

 

JW is a terrible example, honestly. It's a June opener for a "dead" franchise with the last movie released over a decade ago.

 

We have a great comp -- ULTRON. Finesse the numbers slightly if you want (adjust Saturday up a notch, maybe Sunday down a notch), play around with it, but that's the basic range.

 

Fair enough but I'm not sure why 180-185 m is being thrown out there so much when WOM is way better than AOU.

 

Shouldn't AOU OW be the floor?

[The Futurist]

Civil War wil be the biggest opening week end of 2016, mark my words.

 

Nothing will touch it.

 

A huge win for Disney.

 

Felicia Jones be damned.

[75Live]

Really good number, but not sure my predict or at least $200 mil will work out,  but oh well either way this is still doing massive numbers

[spizzer]

Cool, pretty solid and I think we nailed the opening range based on sellouts.

 

Presales seemed pretty strong so sub-30M preview number would suggest weekend backloading. 

[The Futurist]

Just a bit over Ultron and I am a happy camper.

 

200m looks difficult to me.

 

Walk ups will be good but not that good.