Weekend Thread | RTH pg 197...Mother's Day not kind to CW but very kind to JB and MD CW 42, JB 9,7, MDD 6.1,Hunts 1.48...puts CW at about 178M

[baumer]

53 minutes ago, Ent said:

Here are t2nde MCU movies multipliers f.or every one of them that opened above $70M.

 

 

So to me, there is an established correlation between the critical reception and the multiplier.  

 

I can see CACW missing that 3X multiplier because as TA demonstrated it is indeed very difficult to get there once you open that big.

 

That said a multipiler around Winter Soldier could happen and for me the absolute lowest based on those statistics would be a 2.65 multiplier which will put it around $470M

 

Imho theres very little chance at a 2.65x

[SteveJaros]

10 hours ago, ecstasy said:

LOL no. Those were all very good players including Sam Cassel.

 

They were "good" players. But none of them were all-stars.

Look, nobody ever wins a championship with just one great player and a bunch of scrubs. You have to have good players. But the great bulk win with all-star level teammates. Shaq had Kobe and then Kobe had Gasol, Jordan had Pippen, Lebron had D-Wade. Magic had Kareem and Worthy, Bird had Parish and McHale. You get the picture. In 1994, Olajuwon didn't have anyone like that.

 

Neither did Dirk in 2011. 

Edited May 9, 2016 by SteveJaros

[cannastop]

18 minutes ago, ecstasy said:

Yikes! That's way worse than predicted for CW. But Mother's Day exploded! Wonder if it's any good?

 

So 178 at the most for CW I guess.

It probably has to do with a certain traditional celebration that happened yesterday.

 

I can't remember what it was called.

Edited May 9, 2016 by cannastop

[JohnnyGossamer]

Honestly, given Caps 3 was following Iron Man 3 sans previews, $42M makes a lot more sense than the studio projected $45M+.

 

So, minus previews, Iron Man 3 $52M Friday, $62M Saturday and $43M Sunday OW. And, now, Caps 3 did $50M Friday, $61M Saturday and $42M Sunday OW. Again, a great start and likely a bigger 2nd weekend than both Iron Man 3 and Ultron. I'm expecting just over/under $80M this coming weekend. And, if WOM truly buoys it, possibly even something approaching $85M.

Edited May 9, 2016 by JohnnyGossamer

[fmpro]

15 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

Imho theres very little chance at a 2.65x

 

I agree.. More like 2,5 for a 440-450 mill finish..

But lets see. Stranger things has happend

[baumer]

A 55% drop would be fantastic.

[POTUS 2020]

17 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

Imho theres very little chance at a 2.65x

With good torrent copy just hitting the Web, how much does that affect next weekend and the run?

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

With good torrent copy just hitting the Web, how much does that affect next weekend and the run?

Shouldn't you know, Mr.Wall Street?

Edited May 9, 2016 by cannastop

[a2k]

CW 178 = 7.12 * 25

AOU 191.27 = 6.93 * 27.6

So seems like AOU was tiny bit more front-loaded. But then AOU's hype as a TA sequel was more than huge considering TA's reception, 600m+ bo and 3x+ multiplier.

 

I think CW will better AOU's multiplier of 2.4x but won't go higher than 2.55x. Probably won't go lower than 2.45x.

2.45-2.55x gives 435-455m with a ~178m ow. 178m/2.5x/445m in the middle.

[JohnnyGossamer]

7 minutes ago, a2knet said:

CW 178 = 7.12 * 25

AOU 191.27 = 6.93 * 27.6

So seems like AOU was tiny bit more front-loaded. But then AOU's hype as a TA sequel was more than huge considering TA's reception, 600m+ bo and 3x+ multiplier.

 

I think CW will better AOU's multiplier of 2.4x but won't go higher than 2.55x. Probably won't go lower than 2.45x.

2.45-2.55x gives 435-455m with a ~178m ow. 178m/2.5x/445m in the middle.

This seems about right to me as well. I'm hoping for $450M+ but thinking something around $440M to $445M is more likely.

[Cochofles]

21 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

With good torrent copy just hitting the Web, how much does that affect next weekend and the run?

 How the hell did they do that?

I just watched it and, judging by the image quality, it was quite evidently some sort of insider screener.

[a2k]

Even Winter Solider dropped 56.6% (41.27/95.02).

Removing previews, the drop was  48.66%.

 

Giving the same drop to CW removing the previews (25m) from OW (using Rth's Sunday) of 178.34m,

178.34 - 25 = 153.34. 48.66% drop is 78.72m. -55.86% from full OW.

That is the absolute max it can do.

 

But I don't think it can match WS's true weekend drop of 48.66%.

Using -50% from true OW gives 76.67 (-57% from full OW)

Using -52% from true OW gives 73.6m (-58.73% from full OW).

 

73-77m is the range imo, 75m avg.

Edited May 9, 2016 by a2knet

[a2k]

Rewatched GotG. Don't know why but it went from my fav MCU movie to a solid B. Maybe it was so original that it kept me hooked a lot for the 1st time.

[mahnamahna]

50 minutes ago, cannastop said:

It probably has to do with a certain traditional celebration that happened yesterday.

 

I can't remember what it was called.

 

Still, $6.1 million is nearly 75% of its OW. And given its awful reviews, $3.5-4 million Sunday would make far more sense. 

 

I don't expect it to crash next weekend, either. $40 million+ DOM should happen. 

[grim22]

Weird stat about the box office this year to date. If CW follows Ultron or IM3s hold, then before Apocalypse releases, this year will see 4 movies >300M and only one movie between 100-300M (KFP3 with 142M). The box office this year so far has been very top heavy for sure.

[OncomingStorm93]

Wouldn't be surprised if Disney skimmed from Jungle Book to keep Civil War above 180m.

[Dementeleus]

1 minute ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

So we went from 181M OW to 178M OW??? The News and Radio this morning said 181M so I'm sticking with that..

 

Oh BKB, don't be kalogical.

[baumer]

1 minute ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

So we went from 181M OW to 178M OW??? The News and Radio this morning said 181M so I'm sticking with that..

 

The news isn't RTH.

[grim22]

1 minute ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

So we went from 181M OW to 178M OW??? The News and Radio this morning said 181M so I'm sticking with that..

 

You have been following box office for long enough to know that news and radio report estimates and then actuals come in at around noon Pacific right?

[POTUS 2020]

29 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Shouldn't you know, Mr.Wall Street?

Lol. I base things on past events and extrapolate. Like I did this weekend with some success and calling a bottom on oil 2 months ago. I don't have any data on a leaked copy the weekend after a tentpole is released.  But I will the next time it happens.

I project more than predict. How about you? You won the china OW. Thought you should know. I'll send the gift card tomorrow when actuals are in. Ya never know they could fudge 8m and screw you.