Weekend Actuals (Page 67): Captain Pirate: Piracy War 72.6M | Jungle Book 17.1M | Money Monster 14.8M | The Darkness 5M | Mother's Day 3.3M

[MrPink]

2 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

Yeah. Though this explains why 1.2b might not be a lock.

 

 

 

Curious to see what happened there. Obviously in 2013, you had Star Trek: Into Darkness (not a big money maker overseas), Fast and Furious 6, the Hangover Part III all vying for space, so that was hurting Iron Man 3.

 

Here we have Alice and X-Men which is probably going to hurt CW in similar ways. 

[cannastop]

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

This should give us a solid idea of what to expect with Infinity War Part 1 and especially Part 2. The latter is going to be a big event and very frontloaded. Doctor Strange is a wildcard, but I think the rest of the movies should all fall within a 2.5-2.7x

I think it's worth asking if the Infinity War movies are going to decline from the current Marvel movie. I'm certainly not going to walk into something as lofty sounding as "Infinity War" if I don't know what's going on. It's hard to expand your audience like that.

[Deep Wang]

2 hours ago, SteveJaros said:

 

That's true, but it's also true that CACW isn't going to come close to the gaudy predictions made for it by many just 10 days ago. It probably won't reach $400m DOM, and it still might not beat Deadpool DOM.

 

Think about that: BvS and CACW have been released and Deadpool might still end up as the #1 DOM comic book movie of the year? That's pretty astonishing, eh?

 

2 hours ago, SteveJaros said:

 

I am definitely on Team Disney/Marvel moreso than Team DC (though I do see all the DC movies, too), but I have no problem with BvS/DC fans crowing a bit about CACW's failure to be another "Avengers", hell even another "Ultron". You guys took TONS of grief around here - unfairly, IMO - over BvS failing to be another Dark Knight, so you deserve some payback.

 

Just goes to show how fickle this business is: I've been tracking box office since 1982, and yet I still get surprised. If three months ago someone had told me BvS would get beaten DOM and WW by Zootopia and that CACW would struggle to pass Deadpool DOM, I'd have asked them if they'd checked their meds recently. 

 

So you've tracked box office for 34 years and you don't think Cap will pass Deadpool?  I'd sure love to see your breakdown of how that happens!

 

Following a $72.5m weekend, Iron Man Three made $16.2m Mon-Thursday followed by $35m weekend, which adds up to $51.2m.  Add that to Cap's $295 and you get $346m as a rough estimate after 3 weekends.  

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Rallax said:

 

 

So you've tracked box office for 34 years and you don't think Cap will pass Deadpool?  I'd sure love to see your breakdown of how that happens!

 

Following a $72.5m weekend, Iron Man Three made $16.2m Mon-Thursday followed by $35m weekend, which adds up to $51.2m.  Add that to Cap's $295 and you get $346m as a rough estimate after 3 weekends.  

 

Yeah, BVS has added 68m after a 51m 2nd weekend. CW needs 67-68m more to beat DP after a 72.6m 2nd weekend. Nuts that this is being argued by anyone.

Edited May 15, 2016 by a2knet

[cannastop]

@Maxmoser3

 

The Home Video for Zootopia is coming out in the first week of June. It's probably not reaching $350 M.

[75Live]

CW is still doing well and MM did better than what some expected.  Not a bad weekend overall.  Yeah I can see why it's not exciting for people though.

 

This upcoming weekend could be interesting as everything is pretty much a wild card

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I think it's worth asking if the Infinity War movies are going to decline from the current Marvel movie. I'm certainly not going to walk into something as lofty sounding as "Infinity War" if I don't know what's going on. It's hard to expand your audience like that.

Part 1 will do somewhere between CW and AOU, Part 2 could hit 500M but not much more than that.

[Ethan Hunt]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Part 1 will do somewhere between CW and AOU, Part 2 could hit 500M but not much more than that.

Part 1 gonna to less than Civil War

[grim22]

Just now, 75live said:

CW is still doing well and MM did better than what some expected.  Not a bad weekend overall.  Yeah I can see why it's not exciting for people though.

 

This upcoming weekend could be interesting as everything is pretty much a wild card

 

Angry Birds is actually doing really well OS. Might open to 40-50M next weekend.

[Moviefanatic]

Curious to see how infinity wars performs.  Particularly part 2.  Guessing 450-500 million domestically.  Avengers 1 was most likely the peak for this franchise.  

[department store basement]

6 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Keanu took an alright drop this weekend, but with Neighbors 2 coming out on Friday. Keanu could likely take a dive.

 

I agree Keanu will take a dive, but I think it'll be Nice Guys instead of Neighbors 2 that kills it (since Neighbors 2 will skew younger and much more female than Keanu).

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, Moviefanatic said:

Curious to see how infinity wars performs.  Particularly part 2.  Guessing 450-500 million domestically.  Avengers 1 was most likely the peak for this franchise.  

I wouldn't be surprised if it was sub $400 M for both.

[ecstasy]

LMAO that title. Salty haters. Almost a billion after 3 weeks (2 weeks domestic). Good number for a good movie.

[75Live]

2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Angry Birds is actually doing really well OS. Might open to 40-50M next weekend.

 

nice and that fits my point.  It could do well here too, or it may not   But yeah all 3 releases may go either way 

[department store basement]

Just now, 75live said:

 

nice and that fits my point.  It could do well here too, or it may not   But yeah all 3 releases may go either way 

 

This upcoming weekend will be harder to predict than Valentine's was.

[EmpireCity]

2 hours ago, SteveJaros said:

 

Two weeks ago, I got called an idiot for predicting $170m OW by people who were predicting its OW would beat Jurassic World. I've seen many things called "impossible" around here that turned out to be true, or at least a lot closer to being true than what those who were saying "impossible" were predicting, so I say let's wait and see.

 

Let me ask you this: What do you think CACW's chances of beating Deadpool DOM are? Its chances of reaching 400m DOM?

 

Weren't you the same guy only a few days ago saying that The Jungle Book wouldn't reach $300m and multiple people had to point out to you that it was a mathematical certainty and you said "we shall see"?  Then we laid out the week by week numbers and you still didn't believe it?  

 

Yeah, that was you, so forgive if I am laughing that you are now doing the same weird song and dance with Civil War.  

 

Let me help you though again even though I shouldn't.....

 

- Deadpool is at $362m

- Civil War is at $295m after today.  It will make about $15m this week and $35m next weekend giving it $345m.  It will do $7m and $18m the following week and weekend giving it $370m.  

 

Is that a good enough answer for you?  

 

 

[EmpireCity]

3 hours ago, SteveJaros said:

 

That's true, but it's also true that CACW isn't going to come close to the gaudy predictions made for it by many just 10 days ago. It probably won't reach $400m DOM, and it still might not beat Deadpool DOM.

 

Think about that: BvS and CACW have been released and Deadpool might still end up as the #1 DOM comic book movie of the year? That's pretty astonishing, eh?

 

Lol.  I will literally bet any amount of money you want to put on this.  If you have been following the box office since 1982, you really haven't learned anything or paid attention very much.  

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, 75live said:

 

nice and that fits my point.  It could do well here too, or it may not   But yeah all 3 releases may go either way 

 

I'm hoping Nice Guys breaks out, maybe 25+ OW. Neighbors 2 has dropped 50% from the first movie everywhere and Chloe Moretz is not exactly a major value added element for a movie, expecting 25M from it too. Angry Birds 45-50M and a performance similar to Home.

[department store basement]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

Angry Birds 45-50M and a performance similar to Home.

 

Why would its performance be similar? I'd expect it to be more frontloaded considering it's a summer release and not a spring one like Home.

[Moviefanatic]

23 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I wouldn't be surprised if it was sub $400 M for both.

Their openings will be too big for them to miss 400M. Especially Part 2.  I could see part 1 doing IM3 numbers.

Edited May 15, 2016 by Moviefanatic