The Little Mermaid | Disney | May 26, 2023 | Queen Halle will rule the summer!

[jedijake]

1 hour ago, Vector Sigma said:

I saw a woman from Japan post on Instagram how much she loved the movie and it was filled with racist comments (from English speakers too lol). I despise these kinds of movies but gave it a shot after reading those comments and was pleasantly surprised. I loved the movie. Bailley has an innocent charm to her and even her cadence is like Bailley. They didn't advertise the movie well. Lots of people don't even know it takes place in Jamaica. Makes way more sense to have a Black Ariel. I'm a Jamaican and we have plenty of folk tales about mermaids, so it felt natural to me. Most of the movies that have flopped this year have been with White leads. Do we stop giving White actors roles because of this summer? C'mon man. 

The Japanese woman said she loved the movie but did so by filling her review with racist comments? I'm confused.

[Kon]

9 minutes ago, jedijake said:

The Japanese woman said she loved the movie but did so by filling her review with racist comments? I'm confused.

I assume Vector Sigma means that the Japanese woman's post a positive review in her Instagram, while the commentaries (of other people) to her post were racist.

[Valonqar]

Can we put a moratorum on Queen in the headline? It's a curse. Queen Angela didn't win the Oscar, Queen Halle didn't rule the summer, enough is enough. 

[Eric Loves Rey]

51 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Can we put a moratorum on Queen in the headline? It's a curse. Queen Angela didn't win the Oscar, Queen Halle didn't rule the summer, enough is enough. 

Halle's ruling the summer just by being her wonderful, incredible self. Title is fine.

[Issac Newton]

 

如果有这个可以看的话，我马上奔电影院总比现在版本的The Little mermaid好。

 

From my Chinese Friend - "If there is this one to watch, I will go to the cinema immediatelyIt is better than the current version of The Little mermaid."

[Bob Train]

Will 2023’s “The Little Mermaid” become the highest grossing adaptation of “The Little Mermaid” (1989)?

 

To do so, it will need to gross over $553m worldwide to beat 2016’s “The Mermaid”.

[Issac Newton]

Should not be compared at all. Broke Multiple records in and outside China for a Chinese Film.

 

- Became the highest grossing film in China in 12-Days defeating Furious 7.

- First $400M &$500M in China

 

Whether its critics or audience, reviews and ratings were excellent! Even before release its guaranteed to be a blockbuster! 

[jedijake]

With regards to TLM's domestic run, it feels like it will have lost a weekend. Going from $23 million to $10 million feels like it skipped a weekend worth about $14 million nestled in there. That could end up costing it about $25-$30 million, thus possibly keeping it from $300 million (although I think they'll keep it around long enough to just make that number). It was a REALLY weird weekend for all movies last weekend.

[Fijif]

I just hate how people still seem to think this film has a chance at being a hit. From the inaccuracies about it needing only 625 million to 'break even' to people thinking it will be in theaters all summer; how it will be saved by DVD sales and streaming; its nonsense. 

[Fijif]

On 6/19/2023 at 5:38 AM, Willowra said:

People want to apply the 2.5x budget formula to every blockbuster movie, but reality is that it can't be applied to a movie that makes $280 million in revenue just from TV and home entertainment, and when you add another $250 million from theatrical revenue, TLM easily crosses its total cost of $475 million. I think that Variety guy was smoking something when he wrote that article, as he should know that Disney Princess movies make a lot of money from TV as well as home entertainment.

I feel that is cannot be overstated enough how home entertainment in the form of DVDs do NOT make money. That market is effectively gone. Streaming is not adding to the Disney coffers for this movie. It HAD to make all 90% of it's money at the BO, and that didn't happen. It is a financial loss. 

[von Kenni]

Wow, with current trajectory, looks like TLM isn't hitting even $300m DOM. Am I missing something?

 

I'm projecting with a quick and dirty model using OS/DOM ratios of 0.85 and current 0.81 (numbers.com and discounting DOM Friday because I think the international Friday numbers are not in... 212.2/(264.2-2.6)).

 

Getting low-end of $290m DOM + $290m*0.81 OS ~ $525m WW

 

high-end of $295m DOM + $295m*0.85 OS ~ $545m WW

 

So looking like WW of $525-545m.

 

There's no spin for this IMHO with $250m reported budget which usually are around 10% lower than the real ones. It's interesting to see how much they get reimbursed by UK incentives as well as the home entertainment sales. The internal accounting transfers from the troubled Disney plus will probably be discounted when it comes to licensing fees in the future if not already for TLM. Though most likely outside licensing fees are lucrative and part of a package of Disney live-action remakes. Still, not going to save this.

[Issac Newton]

 

Seems like a beginning of upcoming big change 

[Willowra]

16 hours ago, Fijif said:

I feel that is cannot be overstated enough how home entertainment in the form of DVDs do NOT make money. That market is effectively gone. Streaming is not adding to the Disney coffers for this movie. It HAD to make all 90% of it's money at the BO, and that didn't happen. It is a financial loss. 

Loss of DVD+PVod money=gain of Disney+ Subscribers/D+ money. So they aren't losing anything, and this will all make sense once D+ becomes profitable like Netflix.

[Krissykins]

13 hours ago, von Kenni said:

Wow, with current trajectory, looks like TLM isn't hitting even $300m DOM. Am I missing something?

 

I'm projecting with a quick and dirty model using OS/DOM ratios of 0.85 and current 0.81 (numbers.com and discounting DOM Friday because I think the international Friday numbers are not in... 212.2/(264.2-2.6)).

 

Getting low-end of $290m DOM + $290m*0.81 OS ~ $525m WW

 

high-end of $295m DOM + $295m*0.85 OS ~ $545m WW

 

So looking like WW of $525-545m.

 

There's no spin for this IMHO with $250m reported budget which usually are around 10% lower than the real ones. It's interesting to see how much they get reimbursed by UK incentives as well as the home entertainment sales. The internal accounting transfers from the troubled Disney plus will probably be discounted when it comes to licensing fees in the future if not already for TLM. Though most likely outside licensing fees are lucrative and part of a package of Disney live-action remakes. Still, not going to save this.

~$270m as of later today, after an ~$8m weekend and now all schools off? It could still get there. Especially when Friday was down only -30% on last week. 
 

With Indiana Jones looking like a likely bomb next weekend, then a quiet weekend the following, it could be able to keep a decent amount of screens. 

Edited June 25, 2023 by Krissykins

[The Dark Alfred]

Film's D+ subscribe money is peanuts compared to DVD+PvoD+other streaming.  Different ballgame. That's a downside of D+ and P+ and etc. when it comes to their own product, you don't get the same revenue as if the film were to go to Netflix, Amazon, other streamers. So they need a healthy theatrical run.

Edited June 25, 2023 by The Dark Alfred

[Willowra]

24 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Film's D+ subscribe money is peanuts compared to DVD+PvoD+other streaming.  Different ballgame. That's a downside of D+ and P+ and etc. when it comes to their own product, you don't get the same revenue as if the film were to go to Netflix, Amazon, other streamers. So they need a healthy theatrical run.

Disney+ core subscribers are 105 million, with an ARPU of $6.5 as of now. Disney is making $680 million per month from Disney+ core subscribers, and 60% of people have subscribed to D+ just because of movies. And this is the reason why DVD and Blu-ray sales of blockbuster MCU movies have been down by 70–80%, as people don't want to spend twice as much to watch a Disney movie at home. So loss of DVD+PVOD money = gain of D+ subscribers.

[Krissykins]

Yeh we’ve seen from Deadline’s breakdowns that the streaming services are paying themselves $80-200m for the subscription service on films, so I wouldn’t worry. 

[The Dark Alfred]

There is no data that suggest that you get significant subscriber lift per each movie (obviously there are exceptions).  The point being is that if a Disney film would go to Netlix or Amazon, they would earn a lot more. That revenue goes for the film department as well, whereas D+ revenue is distributed differently. Also there is no hard data to say that x film contributed y amount of subscribers. You can make estimations, but nothing is clear cut, therefore can't allocate funds either to precision. Yes it all goes to the same pot at the end of the day, but as mentioned before it's not as crystal clear revenue source for movies as it was before. 

[jedijake]

2 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

 

Seems like a beginning of upcoming big change 

Just curious (because I have no idea), what changes are on the horizon?

[Willowra]

40 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

There is no data that suggest that you get significant subscriber lift per each movie (obviously there are exceptions).  The point being is that if a Disney film would go to Netlix or Amazon, they would earn a lot more. 

Nope, they wouldn't earn a lot more if they licenced content to Netflix or other streaming services, and if they do, then Disney will keep increasing the price of subscriptions until they become profitable.

 

40 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Also there is no hard data to say that x film contributed y amount of subscribers. You can make estimations, but nothing is clear cut, therefore can't allocate funds either to precision. Yes it all goes to the same pot at the end of the day, but as mentioned before it's not as crystal clear revenue source for movies as it was before. 

Yes, there is no data to say X movie contributed this many subscribers, but total cumulative movies contribute a particular number of subscribers, and that's what matters