Wednesday Numbers: X-Men A: 4.28M, Alice:1.95M, AB:1.44M, CA:1.2M, N2:1.03M

[johnboy3434]

After the mess that was yesterday, I've made some further improvements to my methodology (I won't bore you with the details unless you ask me to). Is this any better at all? I would honestly like to hear your critique, even (especially) if you think I'm making systematic errors. I was told that my predictions were consistently too high, and this seems to alleviate that some.

 

Projections for the week based on Wednesday numbers... (note that all weekend drops are calculated from the four-day, so percentages will be higher than normal)

 

 

X-Men: Apocalypse

Thursday: $4.07M (-4.97%)

OPENING WEEK TOTAL: $94.7M

Friday: $7.58M (+86.2%)

Saturday: $10.3M (+35.4%)

Sunday: $7.83M (-23.8%)

SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $25.7M (-67.8%)

 

Alice Through the Looking Glass

Thursday: $1.79M (-8.24%)

OPENING WEEK TOTAL: $40M

Friday: $3.74M (+109%)

Saturday: $4.82M (+28.7%)

Sunday: $3.09M (-35.8%)

SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $11.7M (-65.2%)

 

The Angry Birds Movie

Thursday: $1.51M (+4.67%)

SECOND WEEK TOTAL: $29.3M (-38.4%)

Friday: $3.76M (+149%)

Saturday: $5.07M (+34.7%)

Sunday: $4.05M (-20.1%)

THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $12.9M (-47.6%)

 

Captain America: Civil War

Thursday: $1.23M (+2.22%)

FOURTH WEEK TOTAL: $24M (-44.5%)

Friday: $2.65M (+116%)

Saturday: $1.71M (-35.6%)

Sunday: $1.7M (-0.202%%)

FIFTH WEEKEND TOTAL: $6.06M (-69.7%)

 

Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising

Thursday: $1.15M (+11.6%)

SECOND WEEK TOTAL: $15M (-48.8%)

Friday: $1.57M (+35.9%)

Saturday: $1.95M (+24.7%)

Sunday: $1.68M (-14.1%)

THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $5.2M (-54.6%

 

Money Monster

Thursday: $545k (+42.4%)

THIRD WEEK TOTAL: $7.04M (-26.9%)

Friday: $1.1M (+101%)

Saturday: $614k (-44%)

Sunday: $318k (-48.2%)

FOURTH WEEKEND TOTAL: $2.03M (-63.9%)

 

The Nice Guys

Thursday: $409k (-36.1%)

SECOND WEEK TOTAL: $10.1M (-34%)

Friday: $972k (+137%)

Saturday: $1.27M (+30.6%)

Sunday: $907k (-28.6%)

THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $3.15M (-61.9%)

 

The Darkness

Thursday: $86.6k (-2.61%)

THIRD WEEK TOTAL: $1.16M (-61.4%)

 

Edited June 2, 2016 by johnboy3434

[department store basement]

2 hours ago, superweirdo87 said:

The other thing is the collapse of the DVD market. DVDs were a huge part of revenue in the aughts. With the collapse of DVDs, this sort of performance is less acceptable.

 

Digital sales have replaced it.

 

And the film with the highest first-week digital sales ever is none other than Deadpool.

[LMAbacus]

2 hours ago, CJohn said:

Cloudy 2 got 4000 theaters in freaking September. There is no excuse. That number of theaters for TMNT2 is very surprising and kinda crazy. 

 

The craziest stat regarding theater counts I've seen is that Avatar never had the most theaters at any time during its run. For comparison, TFA had the most for 5 weeks and Titanic for 12.

[cannastop]

@johnboy3434

 

I have to point out that you're way underestimating Cap 3's weekend.

[department store basement]

9 minutes ago, LMAbacus said:

 

The craziest stat regarding theater counts I've seen is that Avatar never had the most theaters at any time during its run. For comparison, TFA had the most for 5 weeks and Titanic for 12.

 

Yep. The Princess and the Frog had the most theaters during Avatar's first weekend, which is just insane.

Edited June 2, 2016 by department store basement

[zackzack]

Future X-Men movies will be top lined by this guy :

 

[department store basement]

2 minutes ago, zackzack said:

Future X-Men movies will be top lined by this guy :

 

 

All hail CGI Colossus!

[MrPink]

What do you guys think the likelihood of Angry Birds leapfrogging Alice is? Especially with Alice losing some IMAX theaters?

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, MrPink said:

What do you guys think the likelihood of Angry Birds leapfrogging Alice is? Especially with Alice losing some IMAX theaters?

 

Pretty good likelihood, though IMAX contributed almost nothing to Alice's gross (only 11% i.e. 2.9M in IMAX over 3 days), Alice has been following Tomorrowland's pattern so far but worse and will end with 10-11M if it follows Tomorrowland exactly. Angry Birds is also looking at that same range for the 3 days.

[trifle]

12 minutes ago, MrPink said:

What do you guys think the likelihood of Angry Birds leapfrogging Alice is? Especially with Alice losing some IMAX theaters?

 

I wouldn't be surprised, fwiw.

 

Personally, I have been thinking XA might possibly have the top slot over TMNT, given the ticket sales data we've seen, but if I owned an IMAX theater and could pick between Disney releases I would definitely pick TMNT over Alice.

[Blackout]

Is that a bad drop for X-Men? DOFP did 5m + IIRC

[a2k]

Alice will be #4 or #5 this weekend depending on o/u Angry Birds.

Out of top 5 next weekend. Probably #8 as WC, NYSM2, CONJ2 open and Angry Birds will surely be ahead by then.

[superweirdo87]

9 hours ago, a2knet said:

APOC already 34m behind DOFP (90.6 vs 124.5)

 

a2knet, what kind of weekend does XMA need to have to be on track for 150M domestic? X3 made 234 off ~123 4-day. It dropped 66.9% off its 4-day. 21.8M would be a similar fall for XMA?

[Plain Old Tele]

@johnboy3434, looks like there's some sort of internal error with CA3 and MONEY MONSTER -- you have both films declining from Friday to Saturday. 

[johnboy3434]

3 minutes ago, Telemachos said:

@johnboy3434, looks like there's some sort of internal error with CA3 and MONEY MONSTER -- you have both films declining from Friday to Saturday. 

 

D'oh! I see what happened. I'll see if I can fix it for tomorrow.

[a2k]

5 hours ago, superweirdo87 said:

 

a2knet, what kind of weekend does XMA need to have to be on track for 150M domestic? X3 made 234 off ~123 4-day. It dropped 66.9% off its 4-day. 21.8M would be a similar fall for XMA?

 

Same legs as DOFP give XA 169m (giving same multiplier off the 4-day : 79.8/110.6*234).

Same legs imply a 2nd weekend of 23.5m (giving the same 2nd weekend drop from 4-day as DOFP : 79.8/110.6*32.55)

So I would guess 19m+?

Edited June 3, 2016 by a2knet

[Lordmandeep]

Digital sales are nothing like dvd sales.

 

 

How many people spend 20 dollars watching a film and buy it digitally. 

 

How many people use to buy dvd