Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, mahnamahna said:

 

No there'll be more:

 

Conjuring 2

Dory

ID42 (should be able to inch across with a low 40s OW)

Central Intelligence 

Pets

Ghostbusters

Star Trek 3

Ice Age 5

Bourne 5

Bad Moms

Suicide Squad

Sausage Patty 

 

 

Central Intelligence is going to need a 3x to hit 100M, I don't see that happening. It'll end up in the Top 15 though.

[fabiopazzo2]

Sucide Squad Break everything, incredible people not consider this film

[mahnamahna]

21 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Central Intelligence is going to need a 3x to hit 100M, I don't see that happening. It'll end up in the Top 15 though.

Why wouldn't it get a 3x with zero action comedy competition until Ghostbusters?

 

$36 million

$20.5 million ($75 million)

$11.5 million/$14 million ($102 million)

$6 million ($112 million)

$2.5 million ($117 million)

$124 million DOM

 

That's a pretty harsh predict, too, since I don't see it having 45-55% drops for its entire run. It should hold decently for July 4th and arguably next weekend if ID42 really has a sub-$40 million OW. 

 

 

Edited June 18, 2016 by mahnamahna

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

Why wouldn't it get a 3x with zero action comedy competition until Ghostbusters?

 

$36 million

$20.5 million ($75 million)

$11.5 million/$14 million ($102 million)

$6 million ($112 million)

$2.5 million ($117 million)

$124 million DOM

 

That's a pretty harsh predict, too, since I don't see it having 45-55% drops for its entire run. It should hold decently for July 4th and arguably next weekend if ID42 really has a sub-$40 million OW. 

 

 

What are you expecting this weekend's day by day breakdown to be? Deadline has it doing low-30's

[franfar]

13 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Sucide Squad Break everything, incredible people not consider this film

Having the word suicide in it may turn off some audiences. Plus, the overall tone and characters seem dark. I could be wrong though. I think it'll do well, just not break any records.

[Blaze Heatnix]

Watch it as Warcraft fails to even get a 2x multiplier for its opening weekend...It won't be making 50 million domestic by any means.

 

Something also tells me that The Conjuring 2 will fail to make 100 million domestic. 

Edited June 18, 2016 by Blaze Heatnix

[mahnamahna]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

What are you expecting this weekend's day by day breakdown to be? Deadline has it doing low-30's

Even in the low 30s, I would expect it to be leggy enough for $100 million DOM.

 

$1.8 million

$11.2 million

$12.5 million

$11 million 

 

$36.5 million. Father's Day should give it a nice Sunday hold

[WrathOfHan]

6 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Watch it as Warcraft fails to even get a 2x multiplier for its opening weekend...I won't be making 50 million domestic by any means.

 

Something also tells me that The Conjuring 2 will fail to make 100 million domestic. 

Let's say 15.2M holds, it'll be at 71.4M.

 

Remainder of the week: 7M (78.4M total)

Jun 24: 7.3M (3.5M weekdays, 89.2M total)

Jul 1: 3.5M (1.4M weekdays, 94.1M total)

Jul 8: 1.7M (700k weekdays, 96.5M total)

 

The fudge is going to be real.

[fabiopazzo2]

18 minutes ago, fracfar said:

Having the word suicide in it may turn off some audiences. Plus, the overall tone and characters seem dark. I could be wrong though. I think it'll do well, just not break any records.

The buzz OF this film si very high...we'll see

[K1stpierre]

24 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

Watch it as Warcraft fails to even get a 2x multiplier for its opening weekend...I won't be making 50 million domestic by any means.

 

Something also tells me that The Conjuring 2 will fail to make 100 million domestic. 

 

(Shrugs), who cares at this point, it's still making a nice chunk of change WW. Domestically even only making in the 80's is still a profit for this.

[Life goes on]

1 hour ago, Baumer said:

 

Of course it's a record. Billion dollar films were unheard of until about 2010. Then China and market expansion came along.

I should disagree with you. Maybe 1 billion dollar movies were rare until 2010, but with Titanic (1997), LOTR return of the king (2003), POTC dead man's chest (2006) and Avatar (2009)  we already had 4 movies who has grossed more than 1 billon dollar. And i didn't count The Dark Knight (2008), because WB cheated with the re-release at the and of that year.

The way you describe it it sounds like 1 billion dollar movies never happend until 2010.

[cookie]

Quote

5). Warcraft (UNI/LEG), 3,406 theaters (+6) / $2M Fri. (-81%) / 3-day cume: $6.8M (-72%)/ Total cume:$38M/Wk 

 

LMAO holy shit

[fabiopazzo2]

4 minutes ago, cookie said:

 

LMAO holy shit

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, mahnamahna said:

 

No there'll be more:

 

Conjuring 2

Dory

ID42 (should be able to inch across with a low 40s OW)

Central Intelligence 

Pets

Ghostbusters

Star Trek 3

Ice Age 5

Bourne 5

Bad Moms

Suicide Squad

Sausage Patty 

 

 

 

Sausage Party will make $30-40m tops, IMO. It probably works best as a mildly amusing trailer on Tumblr. 

[filmlover]

Warcraft's drop could be seen coming from outer space. Terrible.

[baumer]

17 minutes ago, Life goes on said:

I should disagree with you. Maybe 1 billion dollar movies were rare until 2010, but with Titanic (1997), LOTR return of the king (2003), POTC dead man's chest (2006) and Avatar (2009)  we already had 4 movies who has grossed more than 1 billon dollar. And i didn't count The Dark Knight (2008), because WB cheated with the re-release at the and of that year.

The way you describe it it sounds like 1 billion dollar movies never happend until 2010.

 

That's not how I described it at all.  They were rare.  It took something very special to hit a billion.  Of course there were films that did it, but they exploded after 2010.  In the history of film, up until Avatar, there were 4 films that did a billion.  4.

 

I mean, do I really need to explain this?  It's transparently clear that international markets got much bigger after 2010 and of course China is massive now.

[baumer]

Central Intelligence, imo, will have a multiplier no worse than Expendables....that puts it at 100 mill.

Bourne won't touch 200.

Dory will have a sub 3.5X.

[The Panda]

11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

Sausage Party will make $30-40m tops, IMO. It probably works best as a mildly amusing trailer on Tumblr. 

 

Weird because I think it'll be the big comedy breakout this summer and have an OW in that range.

Edited June 18, 2016 by The Pandaren

[baumer]

5 minutes ago, The Pandaren said:

 

Weird because I think it'll be the big comedy breakout this summer and have an OW in that range.

 

Casino bet?

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, The Pandaren said:

 

Weird because I think it'll be the big comedy breakout this summer and have an OW in that range.

I want to see it very much but it's simply going to look waaayyyyyy too out there for most of the GA to get on board with.