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BOT User Tracking 7/8-1 Mike and Dave, Secret Life of Pets

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Dory just keeps getting it done, though Tarzan certainly exceeded *my* expectations. I'm behind on some results, I'll put them out tomorrow.


Please provide your 7/8-10 Opening Weekend predicts for, 

Mike and Dave

Secret Life of Pets


Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

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Usually I'd say it's good to counterprogram when a bigger release is coming out (like CI with Dory and The Shallows with IDR) I think SLOP being marketed as a funny animated film will not help Mike and Dave in anyway shape or form and will take away from its audience because of the comedic aspect of both films. 

And I know one is rated R but that I don't think that'll matter when it comes to adults choosing between the two. 

SLOP: $82M 

Mike and Dave: $8.5M 

Edited by Nova
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A little blah this weekend. Pets is expected to be good and huge, but not record-breakingly huge like Dory was. Which is kind of a drag if you're Pets, but they should still make plenty of money. 2016's been a good year for animated movies, if nothing else. Mike and Dave is supposed to be mediocre, but not as mediocre as anything that'll come out in September is likely to be. Predicts are all more of less at reasonable levels and MovieWeb.com didn't provide any predicts this week at all, much less any remarkable enough to discuss.


Edit - Maybe after this week it'll be time to see how everyone's predicting is stacking up.



As usual, I totaled all predicts (20 for Pets, 19 for Mike and Dave) and here are the results: 


Mike and Dave need Wedding Dates

Mean: 13.2M

Median: 13M

StnDev: 2.77M (revised StnDev: 2.66M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 21.29%

High: 19.1M

Low: 8.5M


BO.com 10.5M

Deadline 15M


ShowBuzzDaily 12M

Variety 15M


Secret Life of Pets

Mean: 76.2M

Median: 77.5M

StnDev: 8.27M (revised StnDev: 7.58)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 10.67%

High: 90M

Low: 61.2M


BO.com  79M

Deadline 75M


ShowBuzzDaily 80.5M

Variety 70M

Edited by Wrath
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I had a few minutes, so I decided to just do it now.


174 different people have made at least 1 predict.


For starters, here are the top 5 in overall best predicts:

1) Ethan Hunt 12

2) TalismanRing 10

3) (tie) CJohn and Wrath 9

4) (tie) WrathofHan, Panamovie, Maxmoser3 8

5) (tie) DAJK, mahnamahna 7


Now, like last time, I'll break down scores by # of predicts. I'm not going to break out the top scorers with really small numbers of predicts, because its silly. Plus, it possible that no one will ever beat Arlo245's 0.03 StnDev average prediction miss. To save time, I'm going to say that anyone with under 30 predicts isn't scored since its not a large enough sample to go by.


The two scoring categories will be: 30-80 predicts and 80+ predicts.


30-80 predicts average stndev score (# of predicts)

1. TalismanRing 1.15 (72)

2. babz06 1.37 (57)

3. bapi 1.48 (54)

4. MovieMan89 1.59 (39)

5. The Panda 1.65 (34)


80+ predicts average stndev score (# of predicts)

1. DamienRoc 1.57 (96)

2. BourneFan#1 1.64 (83)

3. Wrath 2.08 (134)

4. WrathofHan 2.13 (145)

5. Panamovie 2.17 (110)


Top 5 in # of predicts made

1. WrathofHan 145

2. DAJK 137

3. mahnamahna 135

4. (tie) EthanHunt and Wrath 134

5. Maxmoser3 127


Finally, top 5 results by site:

1. Deadline 1.55

2. BO.com 1.74

3. Variety 1.85

4. BOT Median 1.90

5. BOT Mean 1.93


Deadline's strong results are, I suspect, the result of them failing to make predicts on a handful of weekends that clobbered everyone else.

Edited by Wrath
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