Weekend Thread | Bourne 60M, Trek 24M, Bad Moms 23.4M, Pets 18.2M

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

What's your OW prediction at the moment? The only 200M-range movies we'll have this year are Mag 7, Sing, Fantastic Beasts, Passengers, and Moana IMO.

I should start a club: Sing the only 2016 movie 200-299M. I would... but I don't exactly believe that (Suicide Squad or Fantastic Beasts).

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

120M is the floor IMO, presales are too strong to miss that mark. The roof is probably something like 150M.

 

Pre-sales really aren't that strong yet.  Rallax's chain had it at $1m on wed, about 1/3rd of CW at the same time and also well behind BvS.  DP was at $1.47m by the Monday of opening week which might be comparable (we'll have to see the numbers on Mon) but DP also built and built all week as buzz got even stronger with the reviews and even it's Thur preview #s didn't indicate how big it would continue to grow over the weekend as WOM spread.

 

 

Edited July 29, 2016 by TalismanRing

[Chewy]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Even if WOM is mixed I can't see it having worse legs than CW/BVS/Apocalypse due to less competition. 

 

Yeah the early August release date + its non-sequel nature means it should be leggier

 

Although, I wonder if the Joker's presence means it'll play more like a sequel...

[CJohn]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

What's your OW prediction at the moment? The only 200M-range movies we'll have this year are Mag 7, Sing, Fantastic Beasts, Passengers, and Moana IMO.

Oh yeah forgot about Sing. That will do mid 200M and M7 is a strong contender for low 200M.

[grim22]

Meanwhile at Sony

 

 

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

Meanwhile at Sony

 

 

Sony, Paramount and Lionsgate are all on the same path. It will take a few years, maybe 10 or 15, but they will close down eventually. 

[Chewy]

Just now, grim22 said:

Meanwhile at Sony

 

 

 

Don't worry they've got Da Vinci Code #3 and Sausage Party coming

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, Ethan Hunt said:

The fact that Civil War has better reviews than Jason Bourne make me concerned about humanity

 

Probably because CW is great for a superhero movie and Bourne is average for a spy movie (based on reviews).

[DAJK]

11 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Oh yeah forgot about Sing. That will do mid 200M and M7 is a strong contender for low 200M.

I'm thinking M7 for a high 40's opening and 130M total.

[DAR]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Sony, Paramount and Lionsgate are all on the same path. It will take a few years, maybe 10 or 15, but they will close down eventually. 

Sony and Paramount(or Viacom) have their hands in too many pies to ever think of shutting down their film distribution

[grim22]

13 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Oh yeah forgot about Sing. That will do mid 200M and M7 is a strong contender for low 200M.

 

The biggest ever western in history is 184M. Mag7 would have to create history for western movies to hit 200M. It will do well, but don't see it hitting 200M, especially with no summer weekdays.

[WrathOfHan]

Mag 7 is doing Martian numbers IMO. October doesn't have many appealing options 

[Ethan Hunt]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Probably because CW is great for a superhero movie and Bourne is average for a spy movie (based on reviews).

Nah Civil War is bad for a superhero movie and Jason Bourne is good for any kind of movie

[CJohn]

I am thinking 55/200 for M7. And it will hit 200M in January Spectre style. 

[trifle]

2 minutes ago, DAR said:

Sony and Paramount(or Viacom) have their hands in too many pies to ever think of shutting down their film distribution

 

Their film production arm was only down 9% even with the currency exchange changes.  From the article it was more their semiconductors etc that took a big hit.

[Chewy]

Just now, CJohn said:

I am thinking 55/200 for M7. And it will hit 200M in January Spectre style. 

 

That multiplier 

[WrathOfHan]

Since I'm bored what I think Mag 7's week by week breakdown will be:

 

Sep 23: 55M (17M weekdays, 72M Total)

Sep 30: 35M (11.4M weekdays, 118.4M Total)

Oct 7: 22.7M (8M weekdays, 139.1M Total)

Oct 14: 16M (6.5M weekdays, 161.6M Total)

Oct 21: 9M (3.9M weekdays, 174.5M Total)

Oct 28: 6.3M (3M weekdays, 183.8M Total)

Nov 4: 4M (2M weekdays, 189.8M Total)

Nov 11: 2.4M (1.2M weekdays, 193.4M Total)

Nov 18: 1.4M (1.3M weekdays, 196.1M Total)

Nov 26: 1M (600k weekdays, 197.7M Total)

 

Yeah, it'll probably get fudged.

[grey ghost]

4 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Nah Civil War is bad for a superhero movie and Jason Bourne is good for any kind of movie

 

Critics, fanboys and the general audiance disagree.

 

Take your "all Bourne/Ethan Hunt/Bond movies are masterpieces" goggles off. 

[CoolioD1]

I feel like Mag 7 is maybe doing 10/15 mil better than the typical denzel action picture at best.

[CJohn]

Just now, grey ghost said:

 

Critics, fanboys and the general audiance disagree.

 

Take your "all Bourne/Ethan Hunt/Bond movies are masterpieces" goggles off. 

Actually those legs mean besides fanboys the GA wasn't all that pleased with Civil War

I won't even mention critics since they are trash, their opinions to not matter in the slightest. Those people have no taste.