Weekend Thread | Estimates SS 43.7m, SP 33.6m, PD 21.5, JCIJB 13.6m, BM 11.45m, SLOP 8.8m, STD 6.8m, FFJ 6.58m

[James]

 

Lol, Jahns kinda destroyed PD.

[a2k]

3 hours ago, Daniel Dylan Davis said:

 

Not even sure 2X is possible at this point. It's second weekend drop is looking to be HUGE!!

 

2x = 267.5 dom.

 

Let's see,

41.5 in 2nd weekend takes it to 220.5 cume.

 

Last Mon-Thu was 45.3. Give it a 60% drop this Mon-Thu (the 2nd weekend's 70% drop is mainly due to Fri-Fri being down 80%. Sun-Sun will be closer to 60%)  = 18

Give it a 60% drop from 41.5 in the 3rd weekend = 16.5

cume 220.5 + 18 + 16.6 = 255.1 after 3 weekends

 

Another 55% drop Mon-Thu and over the 4th weekend,

255.1 + 8.1+ 7.5 = 270.7 after the 4th weekend

 

Another 55% drop Mon-Thu and over the 5th weekend (summer is probably ending this weekend but Labour Day will boost Mon-Thu)

270.70 + 3.65 + 3.35 = 277.70 after the 5th weekend

 

It cannot do less than 2.13x (~285) even with these drops.

Realistically even the pessimistic end is ~292m.

On the most optimistic end I think ~308m.

~300m in the middle. Because 300 is a milestone figure it's even more probable, as anything close and WB will give it a push.

Edited August 13, 2016 by a2knet

[Noctis]

Can someone please explain to me why on earth this thread is 59 pages?

[bapi]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

Dear god Raimi's original Spider-Man movie is perfect. Miss the days when superhero movies were like this, and not all "giant magical monster gonna destroy the entire world/universe"

Yeah. Raimi's first two Spider-Man movies, Singer's first two X-Mens... Those were character-driven CBMs set in the real world.

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, Noctis said:

Can someone please explain to me why on earth this thread is 59 pages?

 

So that 10 pages from now we can have an update from Rth

[Rman823]

While watching Sausage Party I felt like I had seen something very similar. Today I realized it was this.

It even has the same riding Horseradish gag. 

Edited August 13, 2016 by Rman823

[Fancyarcher]

12 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

2x = 267.5 dom.

 

Let's see,

41.5 in 2nd weekend takes it to 220.5 cume.

 

Last Mon-Thu was 45.3. Give it a 60% drop this Mon-Thu (the 2nd weekend's 70% drop is mainly due to Fri-Fri being down 80%. Sun-Sun will be closer to 60%)  = 18

Give it a 60% drop from 41.5 in the 3rd weekend = 16.5

cume 220.5 + 18 + 16.6 = 255.1 after 3 weekends

 

Another 55% drop Mon-Thu and over the 4th weekend,

255.1 + 8.1+ 7.5 = 270.7 after the 4th weekend

 

Another 55% drop Mon-Thu and over the 5th weekend (summer is probably ending this weekend but Labour Day will boost Mon-Thu)

270.70 + 3.65 + 3.35 = 277.70 after the 5th weekend

 

It cannot do less than 2.13x (~285) even with these drops.

Realistically even the pessimistic end is ~292m.

On the most optimistic end I think ~308m.

~300m in the middle. Because 300 is a milestone figure it's even more probable, as anything close and WB will give it a push.

 

Maybe, but legs aren't very good regardless. Will see.

Not even sure 2X is possible at this point. It's second weekend drop i

[grey ghost]

47 minutes ago, James said:

 

Lol, Jahns kinda destroyed PD.

 

 

Jahns is the people's champion. 

[a2k]

11 minutes ago, bapi said:

Yeah. Raimi's first two Spider-Man movies, Singer's first two X-Mens... Those were character-driven CBMs set in the real world.

I dislike Raimi's superficial MJ characterization a lot though (though such problems are a staple in all movies). Else the movies were solid. I prefer re-watching X1/X2 more than SM1/SM2. But yeah they are better than almost all CBMs save probably the TDK trio...IMO

 

Edited August 13, 2016 by a2knet

[a2k]

191.5 OS till Thu according to Gitesh.

So did 133 OW + 58.5 Mon-Thu

[a2k]

PD will be a success financially.

21+ OW keeps it on track for 65-70M (3x) DOM.

 

IA5 is set to cross 60M after a 21M OW and it's a badly received sequel as opposed to well received original

(PD is a remake but 'original' for bo purposes considering time elapsed).

 

It's prod budget is 65M. Have no clue OS. Let's say 100-150M OS .

Gives it 170-220M WW.

Edited August 13, 2016 by a2knet

[Krissykins]

13 minutes ago, a2knet said:

PD will be a success financially.

21+ OW keeps it on track for 65-70M (3x) DOM.

 

IA5 is set to cross 60M after a 21M OW and it's a badly received sequel as opposed to well received original

(PD is a remake but 'original' for bo purposes considering time elapsed).

 

It's prod budget is 65M. Have no clue OS. Let's say 100-150M OS .

Gives it 170-220M WW.

 

By today's internets standards it won't make its P&A cost back WW, the GB haters will deem it a flop. 

 

Its just how the trolls work these days.

[AJG]

15 minutes ago, a2knet said:

PD will be a success financially.

21+ OW keeps it on track for 65-70M (3x) DOM.

 

IA5 is set to cross 60M after a 21M OW and it's a badly received sequel as opposed to well received original

(PD is a remake but 'original' for bo purposes considering time elapsed).

 

It's prod budget is 65M. Have no clue OS. Let's say 100-150M OS .

Gives it 170-220M WW.

 

I hear Disney also got a $20mil rebate from New Zealand. Is that factored into the budget?

[Thrylos 7]

SS will really struggle to get to 600 million WW, if it even manages that . So much for all the marketing $$$$ . Maybe WB should donate some of the money it uses to promote its DC movies to charity , built some hospitals and schools or something .

[a2k]

12 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

By today's internets standards it won't make its P&A cost back WW, the GB haters will deem it a flop. 

 

Its just how the trolls work these days.

 

Yeah a few might wrongly tag PD as a flop.

But I don't get why those folks would be 'GB haters'  

GB did flop.

GB's gonna make 190-200 WW on a 144 prod budget.

PD's could make 170-210 WW on a 65 prod budget (plus lesser marketing costs than GB).

 

11 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

I hear Disney also got a $20mil rebate from New Zealand. Is that factored into the budget?

 

Don't know  Just used 65M off BOM.

Edited August 13, 2016 by a2knet

[picores]

8 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

SS will really struggle to get to 600 million WW, if it even manages that . So much for all the marketing $$$$ . Maybe WB should donate some of the money it uses to promote its DC movies to charity , built some hospitals and schools or something .

 

Struggle to 600m WW? Sorry mate, 600 WW is completely locked.

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, picores said:

 

Struggle to 600m WW? Sorry mate, 600 WW is completely locked.

 

Yeah. Looking at O/U 650M ?

It's OS weekdays were solid (133 OW + 58.5 Mon-Thu = 191.5 week 1)

Edited August 13, 2016 by a2knet

[Thrylos 7]

1 minute ago, picores said:

 

Struggle to 600m WW? Sorry mate, 600 WW is completely locked.

No mate it is not . It's dropping like a rock overseas, doesn't have China and won't reach 300 million in the u.s . It might just reach that but it is faaaaaar from a lock . Aren't people tired of all the optimistic predictions about DC movies that never materialize ? But hey I thought that civil war would do 1.5 billion so who am I to talk about optimistic predictions ? 

 

Anyway I predict dr.strange doing better than SS worldwide .

[MCKillswitch123]

Good OD for Sausage Party. Mighty holds for the big guns of the last few weeks (Pets, Bourne, Beyond, Bad Moms). Failtastic plunge for Squad, but still on track for ~300M.

 

With this info, here's what this year's Summer top 10 might look like:

1. Finding Dory - 485M
2. Civil War - 408M
3. Secret Life Of Pets - 365M
4. Suicide Squad - 300M
5. Apocalypse - 155M
6. Jason Bourne - 150M
7. Star Trek Beyond - 150M
8. Central Intelligence - 127M
9. Ghostbusters - 125M
10. Legend Of Tarzan - 125M

Wow. Who would figure this outcome. What a weird ass Summer this was. And for the matter, the year's top 10:

1. Rogue One - 600M (yeah, I'm drinking the Kool Aid and putting faith on a 200M+ OW)
2. Finding Dory - 485M
3. Civil War - 408M
4. Secret Life Of Pets - 365M
5. Deadpool - 363M
6. Jungle Book - 362M
7. Zootopia - 341M
8. Batman V Superman - 330M
9. Moana - 325M
10. Suicide Squad/Fantastic Beasts - 300M

Can we already put 2016 in the top 5 most shocking box office years ever?

[picores]

7 minutes ago, Thrylos 7 said:

No mate it is not . It's dropping like a rock overseas, doesn't have China and won't reach 300 million in the u.s . It might just reach that but it is faaaaaar from a lock . Aren't people tired of all the optimistic predictions about DC movies that never materialize ? But hey I thought that civil war would do 1.5 billion so who am I to talk about optimistic predictions ? 

 

Anyway I predict dr.strange doing better than SS worldwide .

 

Its dropping better than expected in most  OS markets this weekend and weekdays were strong. Its not crumbling at BvS level. And 300 DOM are happening

Edited August 13, 2016 by picores