Weekend Thread | Estimates SS 43.7m, SP 33.6m, PD 21.5, JCIJB 13.6m, BM 11.45m, SLOP 8.8m, STD 6.8m, FFJ 6.58m

[UrosepsisFace]

3 minutes ago, RRA said:

 

Means little if budgets of the last two entries are so high you have to do 930 million for BVS or 750-800 million for SS to break even. BVS fell short, will SS too or not? Stay tuned!

 

Yeah, well, if I'm going to take that seriously, after a quick glance at the last decade, the majority of tentpoles must have lost hundreds of millions each, which is far worse than almost breaking even. So, either I assume Hollywood magically makes money appear to fuel an unsustainable industry, or I conclude that either the movie doesn't have to make that much money during theatrical release, or much of the production budget is basically the studio paying itself.

 

If the DCEU is a giant money loser, then what is the Star Trek franchise?

 

Star Trek 09: Budget 150m, DOM 258m, WW 386m

Star Trek Into Darkness: Budget 190m, DOM 229m, WW 467m

Star Trek Beyond (so far): Budget 185m, DOM 135m, WW 202m

 

v

 

Suicide Squad (so far): Budget 175m, DOM 192m, WW 384m

 

After its first weekend, Suicide Squad's Domestic numbers will be better than Star Trek Beyond's World Wide total after 4 weekends. I love the Star Trek franchise. It's Paramounts #2 franchise, much more critically acclaimed than the DCEU, and personally I think it's more entertaining than the DCEU. That said, in terms of box office, if the DCEU is a failure then Star Trek is a disaster!

[a2k]

APOC 178 budget, LOT 180 budget, TREK 185 budget, SS 175 budget

SS is looking well north of 625 WW. 300 dom/350 os/650 WW is reasonable right now.

Irrespective of someone's views on SS, DC, Marvel, DCU, MCU, WB, DISNEY, BVS, NOLAN, SNYDER...Blah blah blah

they can't question it's bo success with that Dom and WW (even if the prod budget was 200+ the WW is 3x with a healthy % from DOM).

 

This is where it gets easy to differentiate between those who genuinely don't like the movie(or even DCU) and disagree in a healthy way VS. the trolls.

 

Edited August 14, 2016 by a2knet

[TimmyRiggins]

Suicide Squad is doing very well overall, let's hope WB learns from it though, they know they can open big, now what they need is to sustain that. It seems simple, and it probably is. 

[UrosepsisFace]

16 minutes ago, a2knet said:

SS so far certainly does not show negative wom. Mixed at most, like with MOS.

 

Percentages are pretty fun to play with, and I can see people using August multipliers with current numbers or using BvS or MoS percentages to do the calculations. I appreciate all that effort you have all put in. 

 

Personally, I'm going to look at Man of Steel's day-to-day numbers, and just add approximately 0.5-1m for the Suicide Squad number, lol. I think that approximates what you are all doing, ha ha.

[UrosepsisFace]

7 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

Suicide Squad is doing very well overall, let's hope WB learns from it though, they know they can open big, now what they need is to sustain that. It seems simple, and it probably is. 

 

This seems reasonable.

[LaughingEvans]

Well, all those other movies mentioned didn't spend a ton of money on marketing.

[cory]

SS's marketing budget and residuals are probably astronomically higher than STB's.

[FilmBuff]

7 hours ago, Noctis said:

 

Yes and no. Your decision will make all the difference.

 

Nice to know I'll always have power over the mindless gnomes.

[Lordmandeep]

27 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:

Suicide Squad is doing very well overall, let's hope WB learns from it though, they know they can open big, now what they need is to sustain that. It seems simple, and it probably is. 

 

 

No they wont learn, they will make visual films to appeal in marketing. 

 

They could care less if the movies are good or not based on the boxoffice returns lately.

 

People will eat this crap up 

Edited August 14, 2016 by Lordmandeep

[UrosepsisFace]

10 minutes ago, LaughingEvans said:

Well, all those other movies mentioned didn't spend a ton of money on marketing.

 

9 minutes ago, cory said:

SS's marketing budget and residuals are probably astronomically higher than STB's.

 

Right, I'm sure Star Trek's lower marketing cost will make up the difference for the near 400m differential in WW gross when all is said and done. And in terms of marketing, WB has spent more money on TV ads for War Dogs in the last several weeks than Suicide Squad. Also, I'm sure Suicide Squad won't do better with things like merchandise or promotion of the whole brand in general. There's probably no effect from the movie on how Harley Quinn comics are selling more than Batman and Civil War now.

[a2k]

17 minutes ago, LaughingEvans said:

Well, all those other movies mentioned didn't spend a ton of money on marketing.

 

15 minutes ago, cory said:

SS's marketing budget and residuals are probably astronomically higher than STB's.

 

And so are it's merchandise profits.

[cory]

3 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

 

And so are it's merchandise profits.

Well yes, SS is definitely the more successful project overall. 

[Bishop54]

4 hours ago, BluRayHiDef said:

I'd really like to know what Rth does for a living and subsequently how he gains this knowledge before us commoners. I've been told that he can't or won't divulge, but I'd like to know why.

God works in mysterious ways. 

[Krissykins]

We'll get rough estimates of costs and home revenue from all films that make the end of year Top 20 from Deadlines annual "most valuable blockbuster" feature.

 

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 hour ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

That is a pretty good Saturday bump for sausage party. I am really curious to see how it holds up next weekend.

Thinking War Dogs will bite into its audience a bit. Will bite into Suicide's audience too most likely... Thinking that one might be a bit of a sleeper.

[baumer]

Look at it like this:

 

If all these movies were really losing money, would Hollywood still keep churning out films with 300-400 million dollar Cost attached to them?

 

And @JennaJ, the theatrical run is kind of like the trailer for a lot of these films.

 

I'm on my phone sitting in a coffee shop having coffee and on my way to work momentarily so I'll make this quick.

 

Home video

Merchandise....go to your local walmart and see all the tshirts and such for SS

The interest in other DC properties gets spiked.

Advertising partners.

Increased interest in older WB DC properties from Superman in the 70s to Nolan films

TV rights

Cable rights

 

And so on. @Tele the Jet Baller or @nilephelan or @Rth can probably go into more detail than I can

[UrosepsisFace]

8 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

We'll get rough estimates of costs and home revenue from all films that make the end of year Top 20 from Deadlines annual "most valuable blockbuster" feature.

 

 

 

Even then, if we go by those numbers, Hollywood continues to make even less sense. That means Star Trek Into Darkness did considerably less than many movies, and we should have Croods 10 by now. Deadline's numbers are famously used to show the bare-bones profit of Man of Steel, but also doesn't make mention of the 150m+ from promotional partners as part of the analysis, and of course doesn't even touch merchandising.

 

Harley Quinn and the DC girls supposedly are expected to be something like a billion dollar franchise at Target alone, and that's just a small fraction of the male super-hero merchandising.

[JohnnyGossamer]

SS wasn't in jeopardy of losing money since tracking numbers came in high. 

 

What do folks think the biggest CBM will be next year? Guardians?

[UrosepsisFace]

7 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Thinking War Dogs will bite into its audience a bit. Will bite into Suicide's audience too most likely... Thinking that one might be a bit of a sleeper.

War Dogs is being heavily promoted. It'll be interesting to see the budget on this one, because it's marketing looks pretty costly. I've seen it's trailer and TV spots 10x more than Suicide Squad.

[UrosepsisFace]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

SS wasn't in jeopardy of losing money since tracking numbers came in high. 

 

What do folks think the biggest CBM will be next year? Guardians?

 

Baby Groot will make bank. It's the same idea as SLOP and SING. Can't afford a real puppy or don't want to take care of it? Take the kids to watch a cute baby sentient tree dance! Same theory applies to taking care of the grandparents too.