Will Movie Theaters still exist in 10 or 15 years?

[DMan7]

1 minute ago, shayhiri said:

The Shay would like to chime in with a different perspective: theatres in my poor E. European country are almost always EMPTY (like 2 or 3 or 8 people watching) - even on an OW night!!

 

And still - they somehow obviously make money, and multiply. So nothing to worry about.

 

Also. most major cinema chains in UK and Ireland offer membership cards that give you unlimited!! monthly access - for the price of a single ticket (and a half) - 20 euro. These theatres also seem to be doing well enough.

 

So what I gather from that is your American theatres must be making SO MUCH MOOLAH from you people (being often sold out and offering no really cheap options), than even if they somehow start making 10 times less!! - they would still be in business. So don't mind them. Just enjoy your movies, the are here to stay.

 

Damn your movie going experience must suck given the small crowd of only a few people.

[shayhiri]

There are exceptions.

 

Also it's only really beneficial for funny comedies. Otherwise, the Shay enjoys his kingly solitude.

[Caladbolg]

On 9/10/2016 at 4:20 PM, Fullbuster said:

I know that's not something many of you don't want to think about but given how fast this global economy is changing it's a legitimate debate that can be very interesting, what do you think? What kind of innovation could bring down movie theaters?

 

For example virtual movie theaters in virtual reality could be a serious threat, allowing to enjoy it from home.

 

I don't think it would have to be any new innovation, just something that would benefit, monetarily, the  studios. The studio could begin to release all movies direct to dvd. That would reduce distribution fees and the studio wouldn't have to share revenue with theater chains. That said, on release day would dvds/blurays fly off the shelf   enough to compensate for lack of a theatrical release?  Probably not since box office gross contains repeat viewings, so even that wouldn't be a good idea. Unless they find a way to directly rent the movie from  studio and bypass the middle men, theaters are here to stay.

Edited September 12, 2016 by Caladbolg

[robertman2]

On 9/10/2016 at 11:35 PM, Incarnadine said:

More like a ticket will still cost $12 and popcorn will cost $30.

 

Movie prices have actually been pretty stable here in Canada, not counting the surcharges for 3D, D-BOX, reserved seating and VIP 19+, but concession prices are rising steadily. More than $5 for a pop, over $6 for a small popcorn and butter is an extra $1.19. I don't feel the least bit guilty about bringing a small backpack and stopping at a dollar store or 7-11 (theaters really need a version of slurpees, they actually last until near the end of movie)

[Plain Old Tele]

Huh. 

[Eric Duncan]

Guess this is my "follow my Soundcloud" moment.

 

 

[Barnack]

Old thread, but the fact that Operas are still going strong and theater still goes on even if they are not what they were on their peeks, show that the easy answers is yes.

 

And looking how much a movie like Tenet can do in some markets during a world pandemy leave little doubt to me.

 

For an extremelly short term like 10-15 year's, would they continue to be massively mainstream or more what theater-opera is today is a better question imo, vynils and Dvds still exist, existing is such a low bar.

Edited September 16, 2020 by Barnack

[Darth Homer]

The real question is they can make it through the next 10-15 months? Theaters are going to have to lay off thousands of staff and possibly close some locations in order to get by until the blockbusters audience comes back, which may not be until next year at the earliest. More long term, the other danger is more major studio movies going straight to streaming and audiences becoming used to that. I can see a situation 10 years from now where there are only two kinds of movie theaters left. Arthouse theaters in the big cities for the film snobs and 3D/IMAX/sensorama movie theaters in tourist areas to show the family blockbusters. Everything else will just go to streaming.

[DAJK]

This is why Mulan needs to be a big failure on D+. We can't give Disney the idea that this is a viable release strategy.

[CJohn]

Not in America, but they will still be the main way to make money in Asia and Europe.

[Plain Old Tele]

3 hours ago, DAJK said:

This is why Mulan needs to be a big failure on D+. We can't give Disney the idea that this is a viable release strategy.

It already is a viable strategy, though — and will continue to be until the pandemic is either over or thoroughly contained. 

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:

It already is a viable strategy, though — and will continue to be until the pandemic is either over or thoroughly contained. 

Well, we'll see next quarter in November if it was really viable...so far, the "news" is that it's not been a home run...or even a single, yet...and we already know it helped drag down any theatrical it would get in its release...

 

If Mulan's PVOD release was a home run, Black Widow would already have an announced $39.99 scheduled PVOD for her original release date...

Edited September 16, 2020 by TwoMisfits

[DAJK]

2 hours ago, Plain Old Tele said:

It already is a viable strategy, though — and will continue to be until the pandemic is either over or thoroughly contained. 

Booooooo!

 

In actuality tho, all I mean is that I hope enough people realize it ain't worth paying 35 extra bucks on top of a D+ subscription. 

[Plain Old Tele]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Well, we'll see next quarter in November if it was really viable...so far, the "news" is that it's not been a home run...or even a single, yet...and we already know it helped drag down any theatrical it would get in its release...

 

If Mulan's PVOD release was a home run, Black Widow would already have an announced $39.99 scheduled PVOD for her original release date...

Well sure, there are a ton of variables and we can (reasonably?) assume that it’s not a clear HR for Disney, otherwise they’d mention it. But it seems like a pretty good strategy in the US at least — where the vague numbers we have indicate it’s outgrossing TENET and presumably providing a boost to other Disney streaming stuff. 
 

Overseas might be a different story but Disney’s strategy didn’t seem very coherent, tbh. And if there’s a second wave in Europe (or elsewhere) it probably becomes a much more obvious answer. 
 

For low- to mid-tier movies (the few that exist) it sadly seems like a no-brainer. 

[TwoMisfits]

14 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

Well sure, there are a ton of variables and we can (reasonably?) assume that it’s not a clear HR for Disney, otherwise they’d mention it. But it seems like a pretty good strategy in the US at least — where the vague numbers we have indicate it’s outgrossing TENET and presumably providing a boost to other Disney streaming stuff. 
 

Overseas might be a different story but Disney’s strategy didn’t seem very coherent, tbh. And if there’s a second wave in Europe (or elsewhere) it probably becomes a much more obvious answer. 
 

For low- to mid-tier movies (the few that exist) it sadly seems like a no-brainer. 

But we don't know Mulan is outgrossing Tenet in "studio revenue stream", even just right now, since Tenet has had a decent, if unspectacular, international run so far....and Tenet can still PVOD or have a more significant rental stream (especially domestic) before any physical/tv plan...Mulan played that card now and can't...

 

As of now, if I was betting, the fact that Disney has now had 11 days of Mulan in PVOD, and nothing on their schedule has changed yet means they know it's a rock and a hard place and PVOD wasn't a magic bullet, and might have even been the more tragic option...but they are gonna let both play out more before deciding...

 

I mean the day Wonder Woman moved and Black Widow didn't was the day you knew Disney wasn't feeling any better than WB about their release plan for their September tent pole...

 

 

[Plain Old Tele]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

But we don't know Mulan is outgrossing Tenet in "studio revenue stream", even just right now, since Tenet has had a decent, if unspectacular, international run so far....and Tenet can still PVOD or have a more significant rental stream (especially domestic) before any physical/tv plan...Mulan played that card now and can't...

 

As of now, if I was betting, the fact that Disney has now had 11 days of Mulan in PVOD, and nothing on their schedule has changed yet means they know it's a rock and a hard place and PVOD wasn't a magic bullet, and might have even been the more tragic option...but they are gonna let both play out more before deciding...

 

I mean the day Wonder Woman moved and Black Widow didn't was the day you knew Disney wasn't feeling any better than WB about their release plan for their September tent pole...

 

 

I’m sorry, I guess I wasn’t clear I was talking domestic in terms of MULAN doing better than TENET. 

I think the likelihood is, things will be worse in a couple of months and everyone’s gonna scramble to delay further. At best, we’ll be in a sort of holding pattern (with a real possibility of Europe on the downtrend)... is that an environment where Disney feels great about releasing a 200m tentpole (this time with all the requisite marketing)? 
 

Are folks that excited about BLACK WIDOW? (truly, I don’t know.) I assume there was reasonable excitement pre-COVID but that seems like a lifetime ago. 

[TwoMisfits]

6 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

I’m sorry, I guess I wasn’t clear I was talking domestic in terms of MULAN doing better than TENET. 

I think the likelihood is, things will be worse in a couple of months and everyone’s gonna scramble to delay further. At best, we’ll be in a sort of holding pattern (with a real possibility of Europe on the downtrend)... is that an environment where Disney feels great about releasing a 200m tentpole (this time with all the requisite marketing)? 
 

Are folks that excited about BLACK WIDOW? (truly, I don’t know.) I assume there was reasonable excitement pre-COVID but that seems like a lifetime ago. 

I get that...but tentpoles, by their nature, look at WW revenue...and DOM choices affect WW revenue (see the rumors that PVOD held down Mulan's Chinese box office)...

 

It's one reason I don't think any non-already-greenlighted tentpoles are gonna get greelighted anytime soon...just too much uncertainty in the market.

 

As for "Should Disney release Black Widow theatrically on its date", that probably greatly depends on if holding it continues to hold the D+ supers material...if it does, many of those subscribers are up in Nov/Dec, and if you don't have that promised stream yet, they'll walk temporarily (and perhaps permanently, b/c getting back lost customers is hard...see movie theaters right now:)...if it doesn't, then the question is, how long do you want it to slowly lose value as it gets "stale" and as its costs continue to sit unpaid for...and how much do you want to risk losing your supers customer base and your movie goer base in general when that still is the highest stream...

 

At some point, studios need to release product to theaters to help them survive b/c current politics won't provide bailouts, at least not at this point - there's just too many entertainment industries that all need them, and no political will to help them...

 

What that released product is will be one factor in how fully and quickly theaters recover market.  It won't be the only one.  Continued safety protocols, continued low viral spread, economic conditions, etc will also all play a role...but Disney and the studios don't control those factors, but they do control the product to theaters...

 

If it were me, and I were Disney, seeing Mulan's likely failure on PVOD...and knowing I already sacrificed Onward this year...

 

I'd kick Black Widow and move Soul up in the spot and have a family movie for Nov/Dec in a Tenet-type contract that guarantees a run til New Year's...if it fails, it was original.  If it doesn't, it has the chance to continue to bring back the young market segment which seems most willing to go if product is there...

[Cap]

43 minutes ago, Plain Old Tele said:

 

Are folks that excited about BLACK WIDOW? (truly, I don’t know.)

Nope!

[Plain Old Tele]

32 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

At some point, studios need to release product to theaters to help them survive b/c current politics won't provide bailouts, at least not at this point -

The studios don’t care about the theaters, no matter the lip service they pay them in the press. They’d be perfectly happy if they went bankrupt so they could buy up (some) of the chains for pennies on the dollar.

[jimisawesome]

For the most part yes, the theater going experience will not exist in the US.  You will have some art house type theaters with A24 type movies being released but that is about it.  COVID came at the perfect time to wipe out theaters.  AMC is holding on by a prayer right now.  WB was the only major study that seem to give the slightest care about theaters staying alive and they are getting killed for it in much of film press and twitter.   You have public health officals saying dont go to theaters publically and they are giving years not months as a timeline. 

 

The major chains are going to be closing any non profitable theater over the next 6 months and even closing theaters with smaller profits.  They will stop renovations to save capital which will further give people a reason to stay home.  Not just that but a lot of theaters are attached to malls which are getting killed and don't bring the foot traffic they once did.

 

There is no Avengers level movie coming up and now who knows what happens with Black Panther 2 the biggest current franchise.  The last Marvel Movie being Endgame gives marvel fans a perfect stopping point from needing to see Marvel movies in theaters going forward.