DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE | 07.26.2024 | Disney | latest trailer on page 76

[Bob Train]

Just now, dominick1216 said:

Maybe it takes Thunderbolts' December '24 spot? Obviously depending if the strike is over by January. If not, then maybe February 2025 (Blade's spot).

0 chance the strike ends next year barring an unseen catastrophe. SAG-AFRA strike is more likely to end next week than next year.

[TheFlatLannister]

Put Deadpool 3 in a Christmas slot and watch the box office erupt. A massive fanrush OW + Christmas legs would be Godly 

[ZeroHour]

It would be fun to see an R rated comedy dominate the Christmas season. 

[toutvabien]

More likely than not this and Cap 4 just swap dates.

[Bob Train]

It would be interesting to know how much the Holiday season boosts movies. It definitely helps multipliers, but how much demand is simply transferred from OW to Christmas Corridor?

 

Mission Impossible 5 grossed the same as Mission Impossible 4 despite moving from December to July. And we see Spider-Verse massively increased from 1 to 2 while moving from December to June (although perhaps had more to do with blowing up on streaming). Pitch Perfect 3 also decreased from 2 while moving from May to December

Edited September 27, 2023 by Bob Train

[Arlborn]

15 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

It would be interesting to know how much the Holiday season boosts movies. It definitely helps multipliers, but how much demand is simply transferred from OW to Christmas Corridor?

 

Mission Impossible 5 grossed the same as Mission Impossible 4 despite moving from December to July. And we see Spider-Verse massively increased from 1 to 2 while moving from December to June (although perhaps had more to do with blowing up on streaming). Pitch Perfect 3 also decreased from 2 while moving from May to December

I'm sure some of it is indeed transferred from OW, but it's hard to pin down just how much because, for example, I could make a lot of interesting arguments for all movies you've just mentioned.

 

M:I 5 would have been bumped anyway because people were pleasantly surprised with how the "soft reboot" of M:I 4 went. You've literally already made the argument for me regarding Spider-Verse's increase, and Pitch Perfect 3 was always bound to go down from the heights of the second one was the movies kept decreasing in quality.

 

But yeah, I do think some of it is transferred, just no idea how much.

[Bob Train]

4 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

I'm sure some of it is indeed transferred from OW, but it's hard to pin down just how much because, for example, I could make a lot of interesting arguments for all movies you've just mentioned.

 

M:I 5 would have been bumped anyway because people were pleasantly surprised with how the "soft reboot" of M:I 4 went. You've literally already made the argument for me regarding Spider-Verse's increase, and Pitch Perfect 3 was always bound to go down from the heights of the second one was the movies kept decreasing in quality.

 

But yeah, I do think some of it is transferred, just no idea how much.

Some other franchises that have installments in and out of the Christmas season are Transformers (Bumblebee), but that is a spin-off. Also Puss in Boots 2, which increased over it's predecessor DOM but lost ground WW. Spider-Man: No Way Home increasing obviously had more to do with nostalgia than a release date. Night at the Museum had first one released in December,  the second one moved to May and dropped off a bit, but the third moved back to December and dropped off hard. So not sure what to glean from all this.

[WittyUsername]

As long as the strike ends before November, this doesn’t need to be a December release. I don’t even know if a Deadpool movie is very Christmasy to begin with. Yeah, WB released Matrix 4 in December a couple of years ago, but that bombed spectacularly, so it’s not like anyone would want to emulate that. 

[SpiderByte]

Everyone keeps saying December, I think a July/August move is way more likely. Thunderbolts was about to begin filming when the strike happened, but if it starts up right after the strike ends it could still make it's current date.

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, Bob Train said:

It would be interesting to know how much the Holiday season boosts movies. It definitely helps multipliers, but how much demand is simply transferred from OW to Christmas Corridor?

 

Mission Impossible 5 grossed the same as Mission Impossible 4 despite moving from December to July. And we see Spider-Verse massively increased from 1 to 2 while moving from December to June (although perhaps had more to do with blowing up on streaming). Pitch Perfect 3 also decreased from 2 while moving from May to December

Barren January also helps the final multi 

[TheFlatLannister]

19 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Everyone keeps saying December, I think a July/August move is way more likely. Thunderbolts was about to begin filming when the strike happened, but if it starts up right after the strike ends it could still make it's current date.

idk I feel like Disney would be wasting a lucrative December slot on a film that most likely won't crack $600M (Thunderbolt) even with Christmas szn juicing legs. 

[SpiderByte]

35 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

idk I feel like Disney would be wasting a lucrative December slot on a film that most likely won't crack $600M (Thunderbolt) even with Christmas szn juicing legs. 

I just don't see them bumping it that far back considering how much of it's been shot, especially since it'd mean Thunderbolts has much less time, or they have to delay the 2025+ slate too. Switching Deadpool and Cap makes the most sense.

[filmlover]

More likely than not this just goes back to its original early November spot. Whatever takes that early May date is anyone's guess. Assuming Captain America was pushed from that date because they didn't think it would be ready in time (and assumed this would be a really quick and easy shoot, oops).

[babz06]

1 hour ago, SpiderByte said:

Everyone keeps saying December, I think a July/August move is way more likely. Thunderbolts was about to begin filming when the strike happened, but if it starts up right after the strike ends it could still make it's current date.

Thunderbolts is probably getting delayed again. 

[Spidey Freak]

Shawn Levy liked the tweet so looks like a done deal. 1 BILLIE LOCKED

[Hades]

Feel bad for Hugh caught up in this Taylor Swift Circus .He looks embarrassed. It will soon be over, hopefully

 

Blink twice if you are in danger Hugh!

[Arlborn]

2 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:

Shawn Levy liked the tweet so looks like a done deal. 1 BILLIE LOCKED

It's a bit of a shame that they've already made the James Bond opening song gag for the second movie. They could have had a lot of fun with it for this one with Taylor, and potentially get a lot of eye balls on it because of that, and although the one with Celine Dion did that just fine, the Swifties could have taken it to another level I guess.

[CoolioD1]

2 hours ago, Hades said:

Feel bad for Hugh caught up in this Taylor Swift Circus .He looks embarrassed. It will soon be over, hopefully

 

Blink twice if you are in danger Hugh!

He's there for the publicity. Or maybe since he's recently single he's also shopping for a football player to date. idk one or the other.

[SpiderByte]

19 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

It's a bit of a shame that they've already made the James Bond opening song gag for the second movie. They could have had a lot of fun with it for this one with Taylor, and potentially get a lot of eye balls on it because of that, and although the one with Celine Dion did that just fine, the Swifties could have taken it to another level I guess.

I don't see why they couldn't do it again. The first one opened with Angel of the Morning, so even if it's not an outright Bond parody they could still do the same slow mo opening type thing with all the fake credit titles.

 

As for the Dazzler stuff, that's been rumored on and off since I think Apocalypse so it could happen but there hasn't been any rumors about it.

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, CoolioD1 said:

He's there for the publicity. Or maybe since he's recently single he's also shopping for a football player to date. idk one or the other.

Wow. You really went there.