Weekend Thread | Official Estimates: Moana - 55.5/81.1M; Fantastic Beasts - 45.1M; Doctor Strange - 13.4M; Allied - 13/18M; Arrival - 11.3M; Trolls - 10.3M; Bad Santa 2 - 6.1/9M

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I am talking about the post-Thansgivng week in US

 

That would be FB's third week an almost every film except the award contender indies drop 50-60%+ post Thanksgiving.

 

 

Edited November 27, 2016 by TalismanRing

[yjs]

7 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

What to expect for Monday? Less than 2M?

I'm thinking more like 2.3M with -75% drop. 

[Mad Max]

If we add the (41+15)=56 million in OW from China and Japan to the Int'l OW for FB, then (145+56)=201 million and with a x 2.8 OS multiplier FB grosses around 560 million. So there's a good chance FB cracks 770-780 million WW. 

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, yjs said:

I'm thinking more like 2.3M with -75% drop. 

 

Since it's skewing older (though I wonder if that holds true after the second w/e) it might hit the low 70s

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, Mad Max said:

If we add the (41+15)=56 million in OW from China and Japan to the Int'l OW for FB, then (145+56)=201 million and with a x 2.8 OS multiplier FB grosses around 560 million. So there's a good chance FB cracks 770-780 million WW. 

 

Adding China is tricky because about now a 2 multiplier is a good thing in that market for most foreign ten tpoles.

[filmlover]

41 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

 

To be fair, all of those actors you mentioned probably don't get much love from the current generation either. They just happened to have made more movies regarded as classics because they aren't complete control freaks like Beatty. 

Nicholson still gets a lot of love, it's just that he hasn't made a movie in 6 years.

[James]

16 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

O/S Minus Japan and China openings the drop looks about 47%.  Solid.

Keep in mind that the first OS weekend had previews included from all the markets. The hold is way better than that.

[yjs]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Since it's skewing older (though I wonder if that holds true after the second w/e) it might hit the low 70s

either way it'll totally retrieve the #1 spot from Moana. I can't see Moana doing any better than 81~82% drop even with the most optimistic predicition. (83.5%+ has been the standard for the animated films)

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Nicholson still gets a lot of love, it's just that he hasn't made a movie in 6 years.

If Nicholson ever comes back, his movie could be massive.

Edited November 27, 2016 by WrathOfHan

[CoolioD1]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

If Nicholson ever comes back, his movie could be massive.

not if it's another jim brooks movie.

[filmlover]

Great numbers for Moana and Fantastic Beasts.

 

The other openers range from tepid to horrible. Rules Don't Apply, I mean what can you really say?

 

Yas Arrival. Hope it can leg it out to $100M. Pretty good holds for most movies actually. 

 

Great expansion for Manchester by the Sea, hopefully the first of many.

 

[water]

oh we're doing updated rankings?

• god
  • 
        MOANA 
    
    
     
• great
  • zootopia, the handmaiden, money monster, eye in the sky, the shallows, bastille day, arrival
• good
  • race, the jungle book, captain america: civil war, 10 cloverfield lane, eddie the eagle, lights out, neighbors 2: sorority rising, the huntsman: winter's war (extended), now you see me 2, the purge: election year, queen of katwe, nerve, don't breathe
• fine
  • deadpool, gods of egypt, the legend of tarzan, independence day: resurgence
• bad
  • batman v superman: dawn of justice (ultimate edition), the divergent series: allegiant, suicide squad, our kind of traitor, sully
• horrible
  • london has fallen

 

[elcaballero]

Fantastic Beasts keeps on surprising. The idea that it would behave like a HP movie is laughable now.

[terrestrial]

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice

Disney's Thanksgiving: The Mouse House now has 9 of the top 10 all-time openings during this holiday.

[efialtes76]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Great numbers for Moana and Fantastic Beasts.

 

The other openers range from tepid to horrible. Rules Don't Apply, I mean what can you really say?

 

Yas Arrival. Hope it can leg it out to $100M. Pretty good holds for most movies actually. 

 

Great expansion for Manchester by the Sea, hopefully the first of many.

 

With $62M that's impossible imo.

Edited November 27, 2016 by efialtes76

[Jake Gittes]

Nicholson back in a proper dramatic plum role would be so great. If only.

[Jake Gittes]

Arrival should get to 85 before the Oscar nominations. If it were a Picture/Director frontrunner maybe it could crawl to 100 from there but the chances of that are highly unlikely so I'm guessing a low 90s finish. Very solid run, but it's entirely Paramount's fault it's not gonna end up higher. Exact same situation as Flight with those idiotic theater counts. 

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

With $62M that's impossible imo.

 

Award & Oscar noms/wins do great things for a movie's legs

[La Binoche]

Arrival is Amy Adams' biggest hit as a lead since Enchanted. 

[terrestrial]

THR Box Office ‏@THRBoxOffice

Box Office: 'Moana' Scores Huge $81M Thanksgiving Win; 'Rules Don't Apply' Bombs With $2.2M

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-moana-sails-huge-xxm-debut-famine-warren-beatty-brad-pitt-950563?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

Scott Mendelson ‏@ScottMendelson 

Box Office: #FantasticBeasts Nears $500M, #DoctorStrange Tops #IronMan via @Forbes by @ScottMendelson

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2016/11/27/box-office-fantastic-beasts-nears-500m-doctor-strange-tops-iron-man/#46e86afe6cdb

 

The Numbers ‏@MovieNumbers

Weekend estimates ... http://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart … ... #Moana $55.5m/$81.1m, #FantasticBeasts $45.1m/$156.2m, #DoctorStrange $13.3m/$205.1m