Weekend numbers. Moana 28.3 | FB 18.5 | Arrival 7.3 | Allied 7 | DS 6.8 | Trolls 4.6 | Hacksaw 3.4

[James]

Fantastic Beasts:

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$183,507,403	30.2%
+ Foreign:	$424,400,000	69.8%
= Worldwide:	$607,907,403

[grim22]

Title	Friday 12/2 (Estimates)	Saturday 12/3 (Estimates)	Sunday 12/4 (Estimates)	Monday 12/5
1	MOANA Buena Vista 3,875	$6,447,000 +233.7% / $1,664 $97,962,330 / 10	$12,847,000 +99.3% / $3,315 $110,809,330 / 11	$9,079,000 -29.3% / $2,343 $119,888,330 / 12	N/A
2	FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM Warner Bros. 3,988	$5,015,000 +165.7% / $1,258 $169,977,403 / 15	$8,200,000 +63.5% / $2,056 $178,177,403 / 16	$5,330,000 -35% / $1,337 $183,507,403 / 17	N/A
3	ARRIVAL Paramount 2,915	$2,070,000 +183.6% / $710 $67,848,514 / 22	$3,305,000 +59.7% / $1,134 $71,153,514 / 23	$1,925,000 -41.8% / $660 $73,078,514 / 24	N/A
4	ALLIED Paramount 3,160	$2,175,000 +152.8% / $688 $24,052,432 / 10	$3,095,000 +42.3% / $979 $27,147,432 / 11	$1,780,000 -42.5% / $563 $28,927,432 / 12	N/A
5	DOCTOR STRANGE Buena Vista 2,935	$1,748,000 +155.7% / $596 $210,571,177 / 29	$3,052,000 +74.6% / $1,040 $213,623,177 / 30	$1,686,000 -44.8% / $574 $215,309,177 / 31	N/A
6	TROLLS Fox 3,156	$1,000,000 +257.8% / $317 $137,771,445 / 29	$2,260,000 +126% / $716 $140,031,445 / 30	$1,340,000 -40.7% / $425 $141,371,445 / 31	N/A
7	HACKSAW RIDGE Lionsgate 2,494	$989,000 +182.6% / $397 $54,853,956 / 29	$1,500,000 +51.7% / $601 $56,353,956 / 30	$911,000 -39.3% / $365 $57,264,956 / 31	N/A
8	BAD SANTA 2 Broad Green Pictures 2,945	$960,001 +144.1% / $326 $11,961,045 / 10	$1,448,295 +50.9% / $492 $13,409,340 / 11	$880,403 -39.2% / $299 $14,289,743 / 12	N/A
9	MANCHESTER BY THE SEA Roadside Attractions 156	$665,890 (actual) +494.2% / $4,269 $2,725,833 / 15	$999,199 (actual) +50.1% / $6,405 $3,725,032 / 16	$698,411 -30.1% / $4,477 $4,423,443 / 17	N/A
10	INCARNATE High Top Releasing 1,737	$915,000 -- / $527 $915,000 / 1	$1,090,000 +19.1% / $628 $2,005,000 / 2	$654,000 -40% / $377 $2,659,000 / 3	N/A
11	ALMOST CHRISTMAS Universal 1,556	$696,165 +263.9% / $447 $36,343,315 / 22	$1,244,265 +78.7% / $800 $37,587,580 / 23	$559,920 -55% / $360 $38,147,500 / 24	N/A
12	THE EDGE OF SEVENTEEN STX Entertainment 1,608	$520,000 +189.7% / $323 $11,628,490 / 15	$710,000 +36.5% / $442 $12,338,490 / 16	$430,000 -39.4% / $267 $12,768,490 / 17	N/A
-	MOONLIGHT (2016) A24 574	$242,000 +107.5% / $422 $9,222,357 / 43	$385,000 +59.1% / $671 $9,607,357 / 44	$288,750 -25% / $503 $9,896,107 / 45	N/A
-	LOVING  Focus Features 446	$276,085 +122.5% / $619 $4,871,251 / 29	$436,920 +58.3% / $980 $5,308,171 / 30	$283,995 -35% / $637 $5,592,166 / 31	N/A
-	BELIEVE (2016) Freestyle Releasing 639	$168,900 -- / $264 $168,900 / 1	$183,619 +8.7% / $287 $352,519 / 2	$250,000 +36.2% / $391 $602,519 / 3	N/A
-	THE ACCOUNTANT Warner Bros. 608	$215,000 +257% / $354 $83,710,470 / 50	$355,000 +65.1% / $584 $84,065,470 / 51	$195,000 -45.1% / $321 $84,260,470 / 52	N/A
-	NOCTURNAL ANIMALS Focus Features 127	$197,145 +115.2% / $1,552 $2,216,433 / 15	$305,595 +55% / $2,406 $2,522,028 / 16	$183,355 -40% / $1,444 $2,705,383 / 17	N/A
-	RULES DON'T APPLY Fox 2,386	$179,000 +50.3% / $75 $2,946,655 / 10	$241,000 +34.6% / $101 $3,187,655 / 11	$135,000 -44% / $57 $3,322,655 / 12	N/A
-	BLEED FOR THIS Open Road Films 649	$84,871 +27.1% / $131 $4,637,061 / 15	$127,760 +50.5% / $197 $4,764,821 / 16	$76,656 -40% / $118 $4,841,477 / 17	N/A
-	JACKIE Fox Searchlight 5	$90,742 -- / $18,148 $90,742 / 1	$109,002 +20.1% / $21,800 $199,744 / 2	$75,256 -31% / $15,051 $275,000 / 3	N/A
-	JACK REACHER: NEVER GO BACK Paramount 298	$66,000 +168.8% / $221 $57,600,104 / 43	$105,000 +59.1% / $352 $57,705,104 / 44	$54,000 -48.6% / $181 $57,759,104 / 45	N/A
-	LION Weinstein Company 7	$28,544 +189.3% / $4,078 $187,692 / 8	$52,394 +83.6% / $7,485 $240,086 / 9	$39,296 -25% / $5,614 $279,382 / 10	N/A
-	BOO! A MADEA HALLOWEEN Lionsgate 235	$33,000 +242.3% / $140 $72,897,754 / 43	$66,500 +101.5% / $283 $72,964,254 / 44	$36,500 -45.1% / $155 $73,000,754 / 45	N/A
-	DEEPWATER HORIZON Lionsgate/Summit 166	$32,000 +133.8% / $193 $61,205,034 / 64	$51,000 +59.4% / $307 $61,256,034 / 65	$32,000 -37.3% / $193 $61,288,034 / 66	N/A
-	THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS Universal 189	$24,100 +202% / $128 $367,931,125 / 148	$54,335 +125.5% / $287 $367,985,460 / 149	$29,885 -45% / $158 $368,015,345 / 150	N/A
-	THE GIRL ON THE TRAIN (2016) Universal 177	$40,045 +155.1% / $226 $74,994,160 / 57

[narniadis]

@SteveJaros

 

I am not a fanboy of either film (FB or Moana) but I have been following the BO since Shrek 2 consistently and have seen many people and many movies come and go. You comment that Moana was 4m higher than you expected - there was never a reasonable expectation for a 24m weekend, even with the worst holds (which the weekdays proved otherwise) it was looking at 25m+. While I understand that some people can come off an extreme on the fanboy side (thank goodness for the block feature!) you come across quite trollish to others when you cannot except historical records of behavior in arguments. People tried ever since the Friday estimates to show you the path for both films and you choose to ignore the data in favor of your own personal, biased opinion - that is why it seems people jump on a bandwagon against ya.

 

Be a little more open minded about the historical record and your predictions will get infinitely better (for what it's worth both FB and Moana will eventually pass my pre-release predictions of 200m and 230m respectively.)

[grim22]

The projected Sunday drop for Moana looks very optimistic. None of the Disney animation movies have fallen below 34% on the post-TG Sunday.

[RyneOh1040]

5 minutes ago, James said:

Fantastic Beasts:

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$183,507,403	30.2%
+ Foreign:	$424,400,000	69.8%
= Worldwide:	$607,907,403

FB can get it.  Hoping it can hit Suicide Squad WW numbers.

Edited December 4, 2016 by RyneOh1040

[The Futurist]

Doctor Strange has still Japan I think.

[grim22]

1 minute ago, RyneOh1040 said:

FB can get it.  Hoping it can hit Suicide Squad WW numbers.

 

A 750-800M finish looks most likely. Probably 235M domestic and 530M WW for around a 765M finish.

[narniadis]

Weekend thoughts:

 

Some studios are on crack - Moana and Believe for sure will be going down once Sunday actuals come in (are they serious with that under -30% fall???)

 

Great hold for Beasts - On Par with HP1 15 years ago - should continue it's march to 225m+ along with Dr. Strange.

 

Moana finally showing it is not going to be Frozen - that under 100% (barely) Saturday increase and the ridiculous Sunday expectation are just to keep the drop under -50% for estimates. However weekend wise, it did have a better hold than both Frozen and Tangled (at the moment) 240m+ seems pretty secure barring a collapse against Sing. 

 

Allied / Arrival as the "big" adult pics in wide release held well - over all the % holds this weekend are up over last year. Allied could make a push for 45m and Arrival is definitely headed for 90m with awards recognition, maybe 100m if it stays around long enough.

 

Overall a very very solid weekend for this time of year.

[narniadis]

5 minutes ago, grim22 said:

The projected Sunday drop for Moana looks very optimistic. None of the Disney animation movies have fallen below 34% on the post-TG Sunday.

 

Yeah I am thinking it comes in 600-700 under the current estimate which would bring the drop to around -51%

 

still not bad by any means.

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Weekend thoughts:

 

Some studios are on crack - Moana and Believe for sure will be going down once Sunday actuals come in (are they serious with that under -30% fall???)

 

Great hold for Beasts - On Par with HP1 15 years ago - should continue it's march to 225m+ along with Dr. Strange.

 

Moana finally showing it is not going to be Frozen - that under 100% (barely) Saturday increase and the ridiculous Sunday expectation are just to keep the drop under -50% for estimates. However weekend wise, it did have a better hold than both Frozen and Tangled (at the moment) 240m+ seems pretty secure barring a collapse against Sing. 

 

Allied / Arrival as the "big" adult pics in wide release held well - over all the % holds this weekend are up over last year. Allied could make a push for 45m and Arrival is definitely headed for 90m with awards recognition, maybe 100m if it stays around long enough.

 

Overall a very very solid weekend for this time of year.

 

The Moana weekend dailies, both on OW and this weekend, are within a few thousand of Toy Story 2 on both those weekends. I think TS2 will end up being the best guide for its run adjusting for Tuesday's and how movies behave now.

[La Binoche]

So Office Christmas Party (looks like garbage, though I liked Blades of Glory) is the only major release next week? Good news for holdovers and the small movies can breathe a bit. 

 

 

 

[grim22]

1 hour ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Also, MJ2 earned 55m after the post thanksgiving week with TFA. Considering that R1 is not TFA and FB has had better hold I see no reason why 250m is out of the question. 

Please elaborate if I get sth wrong.

 

It definitely can for sure. R1 won't hurt movies as much as TFA did, but Christmas competition is tougher. Would say a 235-240M finish is still more likely than 250M.

[James]

Just now, grim22 said:

 

It definitely can for sure. R1 won't hurt movies as much as TFA did, but Christmas competition is tougher. Would say a 235-240M finish is still more likely than 250M.

With 240m, 800m WW would be within reach. If WB stops tracking at 795-796m like they did with PoA I am going to cry

[Heretic]

Moana flopped in the UK. £2.1m opening, lower than The Good Dinosaur. Absolutely horrible, I don't know what happened. Way below previous WDA films. Maybe it'll do well over Christmas, but OS so far is looking quite weak. 

[The Futurist]

Just now, Heretic said:

Moana flopped in the UK. £2.1m opening, lower than The Good Dinosaur. Absolutely horrible, I don't know what happened. Way below previous WDA films. Maybe it'll do well over Christmas, but OS so far is looking quite weak. 

 

Wut ?

 

I blame Brexit.

 

[narniadis]

4 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

The Moana weekend dailies, both on OW and this weekend, are within a few thousand of Toy Story 2 on both those weekends. I think TS2 will end up being the best guide for its run adjusting for Tuesday's and how movies behave now.

 

Yeah, that's the one I keep looking at (and Oz for FB) as a barometer. I think the 1-2 punch of R1 and Sing takes a bit more out of the sails that people care to think about right now - even if R1 only does 150m that is still a huge amount of business for December and Sing opens just 5 days later (4.5 if you count the Tuesday previews.) It will be hurt, the question (of course unanswered till then) is by how much. 

[POTUS 2020]

On ‎12‎/‎3‎/‎2016 at 0:03 AM, That One Guy said:

This weekend is gonna be so boring

Never boring when you play the Derby

[MinaTakla]

Arrival drop is one of the Top 20 post-Thanksgiving weekend drop of all-time

[MovieMan89]

Yeah the Moana Sunday estimate is purely for sub 50% drop purposes. Disappointed it couldn't hit 30m after the fantastic Friday number, but I'm still very pleased it had a better second weekend drop than Frozen. 

[Noctis]

Beasts has now surpassed Strange OS. $424m vs $419m. Beasts is going to be the second film in a DECADE to hit a 3x multiplier for a November opening above $50m. It just needs to do $223m to achieve that, which I think is likely at this point. 

 

And GREAT overseas weekend for Beasts. I think it'll end up with $225m DOM and $535m OS for $760m WW. 

 

Moana FLOPPED hard in the UK. 

Edited December 4, 2016 by Noctis