ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

I have a friend here in the area and can telecommute. It'd be nice if they can at least let me know if this flight is happening or not

 

Which airline? 

[MrPink]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Which airline? 

 

American Airlines. I also unknowingly picked a flight at Hobby which is 45 min from my house as opposed to IAH which is 20-25 min 

[elcaballero]

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

We could meet in Katy 

Sounds like a good weekend drive. 

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, MrPink said:

 

American Airlines. I also unknowingly picked a flight at Hobby which is 45 min from my house as opposed to IAH which is 20-25 min 

 

 

[MrPink]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

 

 

Im also out of likes to make the situation worse. I love Dumb and Dumber

[Jason]

Alright, here's a scatterplot of almost all the December films on Box Office Mojo (excluding current openers, N=198), and the films from May to August ("summer", N=800). December films are shown with blue diamonds, summer films are shown with red squares.

 

 

For either summer or December openers, there's a very wide range of multipliers for sub-$25M OWs. Above that range, the upper limit of the multiplier falls off, but the lower limit actually appears to increase - although this could just be an effect of fewer samples at higher OWs. Purely by visual inspection, it can be seen that in the $40M to $90M range, December openers have substantially better legs than summer openers. Aside from TFA (and now Rogue One), there are no December films above $100M, but we can see that summer openers north of $100M have only slightly worse legs on average than those between $40M and $90M.

 

Here's a table showing the population size (N), average, standard deviation (SD), standard error of the mean (SE), and the minimum & maximum multiplier for each group (Avatar was excluded from the December statistics*):

Quote

Statistic	Dec. 40-90	S. 40-90	S. 100+
N	15	142	26
Average	4.59	3.47	2.93
SD	0.98	1.02	0.56
SE	0.25	0.09	0.11
Min	3.321	2.115	2.227
Max	6.637	7.651	4.084

*Avatar is an outlier by pretty much any method of identifying them, and I excluded it to make it clear that the higher average of December multipliers exists even without it.

 

I wouldn't read too deeply into the standard deviation/standard error, but suffice it to say that the differences between all three of these groups is statistically significant.

 

The average multiplier of the December films is higher than summer films in the $40M - $90M OW range by about 1 (30%), larger than the 0.6 (20%) difference between the two groups of summer films. Notably, even though summer films over $100M have a lower average than those between $40M and $90M, there's also less variation in that group, and the minimum value in each group is about the same. If similar trends (ie. similar minimum multiplier, average multiplier 30% higher than summer films) were to hold for December films, then we would expect that December films opening over $100M+ to have multipliers of at least ~3, and ~3.8 on average.

 

In my view, the existing data could support either of the following two arguments:

• December films have significantly better legs than summer films even when controlling for OW, and therefore Rogue One is very likely to have a multiplier of more than 3, and possibly even well above that.
• We don't know (and perhaps can't yet know) to what degree December films will continue to be leggier than summer films in the $100M+ range, and so should make no assumptions about Rogue One's multiplier based purely from OW.

However, it's clear that an argument that Rogue One should have a multiplier around or below 3 based purely on its high OW is unsupported, since there's a very substantial difference between the relationship of multiplier to OW in the range where we have data for both December and summer films.

 

I am personally expecting Rogue One to have a multiplier of at least ~3.3, $500M+.

[druv10]

7 minutes ago, Rallax said:

@redfirebird2008

@druv10

@MrPink

 

BOT Houston unite!  Let's help this movie out!

 

 

 

 

I did my part. 4 times in 4 days including twice in IMAX with glorious Dunkirk prologue!

[MrPink]

The boarding process has begun 

 

Good night BOT

[aabattery]

2 minutes ago, Jason said:

Alright, here's a scatterplot of almost all the December films on Box Office Mojo (excluding current openers, N=198), and the films from May to August ("summer", N=800). December films are shown with blue diamonds, summer films are shown with red squares.

 

 

~snip~

 

 

But seriously, nice analysis! Graphs are pretty .

[druv10]

6 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

American Airlines. I also unknowingly picked a flight at Hobby which is 45 min from my house as opposed to IAH which is 20-25 min 

Why would you do that? IAH is much better airport plus you live closer to it, an odd choice to say the least.

[Daxtreme]

4 minutes ago, Jason said:

Alright, here's a scatterplot of almost all the December films on Box Office Mojo (excluding current openers, N=198), and the films from May to August ("summer", N=800). December films are shown with blue diamonds, summer films are shown with red squares.

 

 

For either summer or December openers, there's a very wide range of multipliers for sub-$25M OWs. Above that range, the upper limit of the multiplier falls off, but the lower limit actually appears to increase - although this could just be an effect of fewer samples at higher OWs. Purely by visual inspection, it can be seen that in the $40M to $90M range, December openers have substantially better legs than summer openers. Aside from TFA (and now Rogue One), there are no December films above $100M, but we can see that summer openers north of $100M have only slightly worse legs on average than those between $40M and $90M.

 

Here's a table showing the population size (N), average, standard deviation (SD), standard error of the mean (SE), and the minimum & maximum multiplier for each group (Avatar was excluded from the December statistics*):

 

I wouldn't read too deeply into the standard deviation/standard error, but suffice it to say that the differences between all three of these groups is statistically significant.

 

The average multiplier of the December films is higher than summer films in the $40M - $90M OW range by about 1 (30%), larger than the 0.6 (20%) difference between the two groups of summer films. Notably, even though summer films over $100M have a lower average than those between $40M and $90M, there's also less variation in that group, and the minimum value in each group is about the same. If similar trends (ie. similar minimum multiplier, average multiplier 30% higher than summer films) were to hold for December films, then we would expect that December films opening over $100M+ to have multipliers of at least ~3, and ~3.8 on average.

 

In my view, the existing data could support either of the following two arguments:

• December films have significantly better legs than summer films even when controlling for OW, and therefore Rogue One is very likely to have a multiplier of more than 3, and possibly even well above that.
• We don't know (and perhaps can't yet know) to what degree December films will continue to be leggier than summer films in the $100M+ range, and so should make no assumptions about Rogue One's multiplier based purely from OW.

However, it's clear that an argument that Rogue One should have a multiplier around or below 3 based purely on its high OW is unsupported, since there's a very substantial difference between the relationship of multiplier to OW in the range where we have data for both December and summer films.

 

I am personally expecting Rogue One to have a multiplier of at least ~3.3, $500M+.

 

 

 

[Noctis]

$717m WW for FB. <3

[druv10]

11 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

We could meet in Katy 

Alright, that's my neck of the wood. It could work.

[MrPink]

3 minutes ago, druv10 said:

Why would you do that? IAH is much better airport plus you live closer to it, an odd choice to say the least.

 

Wasnt paying attention, I just equate Southwest = Hobby and everything else is Bush

[Ozymandias]

1 minute ago, Noctis said:

$717m WW for FB. <3

 

not an event

[Noctis]

2 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

not an event

 

You son of a bitch

[Plain Old Tele]

4 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

 

not an event

 

Just now, Noctis said:

 

You son of a bitch

 

I laughed.  

[Daxtreme]

You know what's funny?

 

We shouldn't even need Jason's numbers to assert that holiday movies have better legs, it's fairly self-explanatory. The holidays being what they are, people are off work and they have more time to go to the movies either with friends or families. It is really that simple.

 

... can't hurt to have 'em around though 

[Chewy]

Just now, Daxtreme said:

You know what's funny?

 

We shouldn't even need Jason's numbers to assert that holiday movies have better legs, it's fairly self-explanatory. The holidays being what they are, people are off work and they have more time to go to the movies either with friends or families. It is really that simple.

 

... can't hurt to have 'em around though 

 

If BvS had been released in December it would've gotten a 2x multiplier, really makes you think

[rustyspoons89]

18 minutes ago, Jason said:

Alright, here's a scatterplot of almost all the December films on Box Office Mojo (excluding current openers, N=198), and the films from May to August ("summer", N=800). December films are shown with blue diamonds, summer films are shown with red squares.

 

 

*snip*

 

 

 

 

 

 

So so grateful for my statistics course I just completed that allowed me to actually understand this post . 

 

I serioualy appreciate your willingness to organize this data. Rock on.