ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

[JonathanLB]

25 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

120M OW incoming.

 

Brace Yourselves.

 

Winter is coming! Haha

[James]

OS is looking bad (if you can call 500m+ OS bad). At least 50% down from TFA in all major EU markets, 50% down in Australia. As for Asia, 50% down in HK and 70% down in Taiwan so far.   

[ZattMurdock]

50 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

I am putting this in every Rogue One thread.  

 

Saw it finally.  It is great.  So fucking great.  Brutal.  Thrilling.  Huge cheer at the end.  I loved it.  I acknowledge it is servicing the 8 year old boy in me that used to play with my 12 year old brother in the back yard imaging things that I saw tonight.  They gave me everything I ever wanted or imagined in a Star Wars movie.  So fucking brutal as well.  
 
Call me a fan boy, don't give a flying fuck.  I was entertained on every level.  Bravo to everyone involved.  Bravo to George Lucas for having the decency to allow others to play in the sandbox and make great Star Wars films.  

I will just leave this here as well. I don't care how much Rogue One makes. This thing is as good as the first two films and TFA. It might be better than TFA, but I need some more viewings. It deserves to break out and break out hard. Holy shit.

[terrestrial]

that  might get to be interesting (to me)

 

 

[EmpireCity]

6 minutes ago, iJackSparrow said:

I will just leave this here as well. I don't care how much Rogue One makes. This thing is as good as the first two films and TFA. It might be better than TFA, but I need some more viewings. It deserves to break out and break out hard. Holy shit.

 

I like The Force Awakens but thought this was so much better.  

[Avatree]

My brother said he thought it was great and felt like the original trilogy  

It's the only thing I've heard about the quality of the film... not even seen any links to Rogue One reviews honestly, it's as if they are hiding from me. I'm not even deliberately blocking everything.

[Avatree]

59 minutes ago, James said:

OS is looking bad (if you can call 500m+ OS bad). At least 50% down from TFA in all major EU markets, 50% down in Australia. As for Asia, 50% down in HK and 70% down in Taiwan so far.   

How is a 50% drop bad?

[James]

16 minutes ago, Treecraft said:

How is a 50% drop bad?

You're kidding right? 

[Mojoguy]

I didn't like TFA, but maybe R1 can be the SW movie that I wanted.

Edited December 15, 2016 by Mojoguy

[miketheavenger]

6 minutes ago, James said:

You're kidding right? 

If it would be Episode VIII I'd agree with you. But don't forget this is a spinoff. It was always destined to drop big from TFA.

[Avatree]

12 minutes ago, James said:

You're kidding right? 

SW7 was possibly the most anticipated movie in the history of cinema. This is a spin off featuring none of the characters we know and does not have that same event status as TFA. A massive drop is expected. 50% opening weekend would still be 125M OW which would be fine.

[Lordmandeep]

2 hours ago, James said:

According to RTH in the Australia thread:

So if all the talk about Australia being a good indicator for the US is real...

I think we have a floor at least of 120 million.

[terrestrial]

6 hours ago, Treecraft said:

SW7 was possibly the most anticipated movie in the history of cinema. This is a spin off featuring none of the characters we know and does not have that same event status as TFA. A massive drop is expected. 50% opening weekend would still be 125M OW which would be fine.

Agree beside it was $140m according BOM, but it is possible that it includes January's $50 something China's OW too (At BOM a bit of a mess as they adjust the OW numbers in a way that can scramble their date related OS OW presentation)

 

Why I think that sounds as a possibility:

The deadline article stated to expect $280m to $350m globally as OW (not sure what to expect from China - again released in January). Not sure where/how they got that number.

 

Depending on dom's OW (see non family appeal possible, weather maybe .... = we will see later) and Disney saying $130m-$150m dom OW, that makes it $150m+ for OS. See China in January, also in all regions the exchange rates dropped (edit: within the region a country might have had an increase, see Russia ~ 11%), e.g. in UK since SW 7 even considerable (but increased in BO smaller AUS/NZ) $125m seem not to be unexpected.

Drops in Asia up to 70%, but maybe a bit better for the Chinese actors involved in China (one prominent actor spoke for China about an Asian conflict that might hurt in certain other Asian countries the BO a bit)

 

@Jason provided a chart for the exchange rate changes per country incl giving their OWs and total, IMHO an interesting and probably time-consuming work

Example China

total / with exchange rate adjusted to today // OW / x-rate adjusted

China

$124.159

$116.6

$52.348

$49.2

 

Edited December 15, 2016 by terrestrial

[James]

35 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

If it would be Episode VIII I'd agree with you. But don't forget this is a spinoff. It was always destined to drop big from TFA.

 

28 minutes ago, Treecraft said:

SW7 was possibly the most anticipated movie in the history of cinema. This is a spin off featuring none of the characters we know and does not have that same event status as TFA. A massive drop is expected. 50% opening weekend would still be 125M OW which would be fine.

I agree about DOM. But I was talking about OS, where, except for the UK, TFA wasn't as absolutely out of this world big.

Then, there's a comparison you can make with FB and it's retention rate from DH2. Even unadjusting for ER, FB will retain 60% of DH2's 2011 gross.

But if we adjust to TFA's ER, and we should, seeing how ticket sales are a better comparison than pure USD which fluctuates a lot, DH2 would've made around 790m OS. That means a 70% retention rate from DH2 adjusted.

Anyway you look at it, a 50% drop from TFA is not good. C'mon people, you were predicting 1.2-1.4b a few weeks ago. Now 1b is in question. I'm not saying it won;t be a success for Disney, lol. It will make a boatload of money. But the retention rate itself is not good.   

[James]

And Russia joins the fold:

Quote

Disappointing early numbers. Well below Fantastic Beasts so far.

 

[4815162342]

5 hours ago, ACSlater said:

 

But shes a lawyer....that profession 

 

[misafeco]

It won't drop 50% OS. No way.

[terrestrial]

20 minutes ago, James said:

 C'mon people, you were predicting 1.2-1.4b a few weeks ago. Now 1b is in question. I'm not saying it won;t be a success for Disney, lol. It will make a boatload of money. But the retention rate itself is not good.   

Not all, I am one of those who thinks it might stay under it (staying conservative, as e.g. SW R1 has in some countries a way stronger competition that S 7 had, exchange rates, also weather as for SW 7 for the date perfect, it had more public holidays that this winter has ans so on.

And I think as it seems to skew / aim e.g. for another age-group than usual it is not unexpected. It gets presented as a war film... and a Star Wars story. 2 steps away from the GA also into SW, not only one.

Plus in Asia politic might play into some countries, as was to read weeks earlier. I think there are reasons why the last Saturday's ww article named those numbers.

 

If you quote details like the Russian detail, could you please give it a link? I'd like to know if it is about admissions or money (see exchange rates....) and which exact details are to learn also

[Avatree]

10 minutes ago, James said:

 

I agree about DOM. But I was talking about OS, where, except for the UK, TFA wasn't as absolutely out of this world big.

Then, there's a comparison you can make with FB and it's retention rate from DH2. Even unadjusting for ER, FB will retain 60% of DH2's 2011 gross.

But if we adjust to TFA's ER, and we should, seeing how ticket sales are a better comparison than pure USD which fluctuates a lot, DH2 would've made around 790m OS. That means a 70% retention rate from DH2 adjusted.

Anyway you look at it, a 50% drop from TFA is not good. C'mon people, you were predicting 1.2-1.4b a few weeks ago. Now 1b is in question. I'm not saying it won;t be a success for Disney, lol. It will make a boatload of money. But the retention rate itself is not good.   

I don't really agree, dropping 50% from TFA would still (nominally) make it the highest grossing SW film internationally (except TFA).

 

No it's not great but it is very solid and indicates very good things for the future. You can look at it as a base line - if this is what a spin off with absolutely no relation to the previous movie can get, then might that be the floor for all future SW movies? Just a thought. It indicates SW8 will do extremely well  

[James]

3 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

If you quote details like the Russian detail, could you please give it a link? I'd like to know if it is about admissions or money (see exchange rates....) and which exact details are to learn also

All my updates come from things posted in the international thread. I re-post everything that is there. You can ask @juni78ukr for the source since he is the bigshot when it comes to Russian BO.