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Dementeleus

ROGUE ONE WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals R1 155.09m, Moana 12.7m, OCP 8.58m, CB 7.1m, FB 5.07m

By Dementeleus, in Numbers and Data

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

Raining a ton in the Bay Area, not cold though thanks to Pineapple Express system. Still creating a travel nightmare.

 

Same two hours north of you.  Not so hard as to make roads unsafe, but might dissaude casuals.

 

OTOH, we're supposed to be rain free for the rest of the weekend so the OW shouldn't be affected too much from our neck of the woods, just how it's spread out.

Edited by Porthos
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JonathanLB Box Office Gold

JonathanLB

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Posted

Ok are you seriously talking about RAIN affecting the opening weekend?! Jesus I lived in LA and knew people were idiots but to talk about rain affecting anything is laughable. We just had 3-4 inches of snow yesterday and icy roads and I still made it here ok. If someone skips the movie because of rain they're really a wuss.

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Orestes Blockbuster

Orestes

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Ok are you seriously talking about RAIN affecting the opening weekend?! Jesus I lived in LA and knew people were idiots but to talk about rain affecting anything is laughable. We just had 3-4 inches of snow yesterday and icy roads and I still made it here ok. If someone skips the movie because of rain they're really a wuss.

 

Maybe if this were an event film I could see folks braving the elements.

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terrestrial Global Phenomenon

terrestrial

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Based on very early estimates, we’re hearing that Disney/Lucasfilm’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is heading for a mid-$20M to possibly $40M  preview night, which is between -30% to -56% off from Force Awakens’ record $57M Thursday night a year ago. These figures aren’t from Disney, but from what exhibitors are spotting from showtimes starting at 7pm.

 

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There’s a chance that Rogue One could file in at $130M for the weekend. Again, still amazing, but what’s slowing Jyn Erso and her team of rebels is winter storm Decima 

 

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Four hours ago, we heard that advance ticket sales for the day were -50%  from Force Awakens‘ first night, with another major chain seeing 50% of their Force Awakens’ take currently, climbing to 70%-plus by the end of the night. Even if Rogue One lands in the $20M range, that’s awesome considering it’s the second best that December has ever seen for an opening day’s eve. Prior to Force Awakens, 2014’s The Hobbit: The Battle Of Five Armies rang up $11.2M in its 7 PM Tuesday night previews at 3,100 theaters; which bested the $8.8M Thursday night of its 2013 installment The Desolation Of Smaug. 

 

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 Currently, the Gareth Edwards-directed Star Wars movie reps 90% of the weekend’s ticket sales, with 62% of their ticket buyers polled saying they’re already planning on seeing Rogue One twice

 

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Aiding Rogue One: Thirteen percent of K-12 schools are out tomorrow (vs. 18% a year ago for Force Awakens).

 

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Social Media monitor Relish Mix reports that Rogue One‘s social media universe surged from 364M from last Monday to 386M today, a size that outstrips the SMUs of Doctor Strange (311M), Fantastic Beasts (282M) and is just under Moana‘s (391M). 

 

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102.7M Facebook fans, 16.5M Twitter followers, 248.3M-plus YouTube views and 18.5M Instagram Followers.  The increase from last week to this week is driven mostly by YouTube views (20M in eight days)

 

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The top clips for Rogue One average over 230K views/ day, up from 40k/day last week. The viral rate for a Rogue One clip is 36:1 which is enormous considering the average for a regular tentpole movie is 10:1

 

http://deadline.com/2016/12/rogue-one-star-wars-story-preview-box-office-social-media-1201871704/

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DeeCee Global Phenomenon

DeeCee

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I'll run through a few scenarios based on TFA, Deadpool and Fantastic Beasts.  I give these to provide a range from recent films for how the weekend might play out.

 

TFA-This is a bang on 50% drop from the ridiculously huge opening day of TFA.  TFA was T-$9.42m, F-$5.3m, S-$6.3m, S-$6.2m.  My thinking is that for the rest of the weekend the drop will be closer to 35% from TFA.

 

$4.75m + $11.6m = $16.35m

 

Deadpool-It had an opening day of $3m and made $11.94m over the next 3 days for a OW of $14.94m.  So if R1 matches the FSS of Deadpool we have the following.  

 

$4.75m + $11.94m = $16.69m

 

FB-It had an opening day of $2.11m and a full OW of $9.76m for a multiple of 4.6.  FB has both a lower RT score and lower average rating.

 

$4.75m x 4.6 = $21.85m (This is highly unlikely and would be the extreme maximum)

 

Given all this I think the absolute low for the weekend in Australia is $16m and the absolute maximum is $19m.  To be more precise I think it can crack $17m so I'll give an opening weekend range in Australia of $17-18m.

 

How does that relate to Domestic?  I suspect the drop in Australia will be roughly be matched in the Domestic market.  Below is simply transferring my Aussie range with the same multiplier that occurred last year with TFA.

 

AUD17m x 9 gives an OW of USD153m 

AUD18m x 9 gives an OW of USD162m

 

I will now give a precise gut figure of USD155m with a margin of error of =/-5%.

 

So my final range is USD147 to USD163m.  

 

(Unless otherwise stated figures here are AUD.)

Edited by DeeCee
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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Ok are you seriously talking about RAIN affecting the opening weekend?! Jesus I lived in LA and knew people were idiots but to talk about rain affecting anything is laughable. We just had 3-4 inches of snow yesterday and icy roads and I still made it here ok. If someone skips the movie because of rain they're really a wuss.

 

Getting drenched when standing in line outdoors WITHOUT a ticket is no fun. ;)  I'm not saying it will have a huge affect.  But might around the margins for the places where they are standing outside and not waiting inside to buy a ticket.

 

But Thr Night is probably for the die-hards so it won't matter as much, if at all.  But over the weekend?  Might matter for walkups more than you are considering.  IF folks have to brave long lines before even buying a ticket.

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GiantCALBears Global Phenomenon

GiantCALBears

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Posted
8 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

Ok are you seriously talking about RAIN affecting the opening weekend?! Jesus I lived in LA and knew people were idiots but to talk about rain affecting anything is laughable. We just had 3-4 inches of snow yesterday and icy roads and I still made it here ok. If someone skips the movie because of rain they're really a wuss.

California has been devoid of a lot of rain up until last winter. You have a major landslide and tree/debris problem any time there is a huge release of water. We are also wimps when it comes to severe weather since it's almost always sunny. 

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