redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Just now, GiantCALBears said: Those holds are th optimistic scenario, don't you agree? Those movies don't seem like a great comparison even if the days line up correctly. Maybe it's optimistic, but I think it will be a lot closer to those numbers than you probably expect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 2 minutes ago, terrestrial said: After reading that, I added some color marks, I do not want to be responsible for that Ah, my fault as I wasn't fully awake. Still that "15.5" was a good wake up call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 2 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said: My model is much more conservative, it has it at about 422m through Jan 2. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark 33Legend of the Sith Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 10 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: We'll see how it goes. Here are the numbers I just ran while looking at Sherlock 2, MI4, and Chipmunks from 2011 and accounting for differences in Tuesday/Wednesday trends. MON - 17.7 TUE - 19.1 (+8%) WED - 15.5 (-19%) THU - 17.0 (+10%) FRI - 23.0 (+35%) SAT - 12.7 (-45%) SUN - 29.3 (+131%) MON - 32.0 (+9.2%) My brief extrapolations had it very close as well for that Monday. Maybe a coin flip but I was looking at a 32ish number as well. It may be optimistic but I think it has a legit chance. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 20, 2016 Author Share Posted December 20, 2016 Whoops, @redfirebird2008, I misread my table. It would be at 430m. Just for total transparency: 12/19 -53.00% $17,709,211 $172,790,892 12/20 7.00% $18,948,856 $191,739,747 12/21 -24.00% $14,401,130 $206,140,878 12/22 8.00% $15,553,221 $221,694,098 12/23 45.00% $22,552,170 $244,246,268 12/24 -44.00% $12,629,215 $256,875,484 12/25 100.00% $25,258,430 $282,133,914 12/26 15.00% $29,047,195 $311,181,109 12/27 -25.00% $21,785,396 $332,966,505 12/28 -19.00% $17,646,171 $350,612,676 12/29 -2.00% $17,293,248 $367,905,923 12/30 20.00% $20,751,897 $388,657,820 12/31 -22.00% $16,186,480 $404,844,300 1/1 10.00% $17,805,128 $422,649,428 1/2 -55.00% $8,012,307 $430,661,735 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 1 minute ago, Grand Moff Tele said: Whoops, @redfirebird2008, I misread my table. It would be at 430m. Just for total transparency: 12/19 -53.00% $17,709,211 $172,790,892 12/20 7.00% $18,948,856 $191,739,747 12/21 -24.00% $14,401,130 $206,140,878 12/22 8.00% $15,553,221 $221,694,098 12/23 45.00% $22,552,170 $244,246,268 12/24 -44.00% $12,629,215 $256,875,484 12/25 100.00% $25,258,430 $282,133,914 12/26 15.00% $29,047,195 $311,181,109 12/27 -25.00% $21,785,396 $332,966,505 12/28 -19.00% $17,646,171 $350,612,676 12/29 -2.00% $17,293,248 $367,905,923 12/30 20.00% $20,751,897 $388,657,820 12/31 -22.00% $16,186,480 $404,844,300 1/1 10.00% $17,805,128 $422,649,428 1/2 -55.00% $8,012,307 $430,661,735 So you have it at $60m for the second weekend. Deadline and Forbes are both expecting $77m. I have it at $65m. They are in for a shock if your number turns out correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daxtreme Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 3 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said: Monday 12/26 15.00% $29,047,195 $311,181,109 NOT A RECORD 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 20, 2016 Author Share Posted December 20, 2016 Just now, redfirebird2008 said: So you have it at $60m for the second weekend. Deadline and Forbes are both expecting $77m. I have it at $65m. They are in for a shock if your number turns out correct. Yes, I think it falls fairly steeply on its second weekend, mainly because of Christmas Eve. I think I'm being a bit conservative with the Christmas Sunday jump, so it could go higher than my 60m. But I don't think there's any chance it gets to 70m+ unless it does something unprecedented this week. But it its third weekend should have only a very small drop, basically countering the large drop from the second. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Just now, Grand Moff Tele said: Yes, I think it falls fairly steeply on its second weekend, mainly because of Christmas Eve. I think I'm being a bit conservative with the Christmas Sunday jump, so it could go higher than my 60m. But I don't think there's any chance it gets to 70m+ unless it does something unprecedented this week. But it its third weekend should have only a very small drop, basically countering the large drop from the second. You and I both have it dropping hard Saturday. I have it at 45% Saturday drop and 131% Sunday increase. Sherlock was in the 140's and MI4 was 119. Chipmunks movie was at 58% increase, but it looks like most movies went well above 100% that day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Quote Nocturnal Animals Focus Features $209,512 -49% 1,246 $168 $9,037,966 Loving Focus Features $42,347 -41% 396 $107 $7,153,771 Almost Christmas Universal $93,745 -45% 720 $130 $41,302,230 The Secret Life of Pets Universal $10,130 -46% 165 $61 $368,233,500 The Girl on the Train Universal $8,315 -34% 112 $74 $75,319,760 Incarnate High Top Releasing $30,496 -41% 318 $96 $4,754,010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 18 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said: Whoops, @redfirebird2008, I misread my table. It would be at 430m. Just for total transparency: 12/30 20.00% $20,751,897 $388,657,820 12/31 -22.00% $16,186,480 $404,844,300 1/1 10.00% $17,805,128 $422,649,4281/2 -55.00% $8,012,307 $430,661,735 That 55% drop on Monday the 2nd looks very steep compared to the last time New Year's Day was a Sunday. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2012-01-02&p=.htm I went with 14% drop from a $21m Sunday to a $18m Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 20, 2016 Author Share Posted December 20, 2016 8 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: You and I both have it dropping hard Saturday. I have it at 45% Saturday drop and 131% Sunday increase. Sherlock was in the 140's and MI4 was 119. Chipmunks movie was at 58% increase, but it looks like most movies went well above 100% that day. I think I originally put +120% for Sunday but given I was going for a conservative approach, I scales down it down to 100% on the theory that demand might've burnt off a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted December 20, 2016 Author Share Posted December 20, 2016 1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said: That 55% drop on Monday the 2nd looks very steep compared to the last time New Year's Day was a Sunday. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2012-01-02&p=.htm I went with 14% drop from a $21m Sunday to a $18m Monday. Yes, I also had it with a much smaller drop initially and then went extremely pessimistic as sort of a "worst case" scenario. I think I'll probably be way off that day, and yours should be much closer to reality. (Off the top of my head, I think I went with a 20% drop originally.) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Just now, Grand Moff Tele said: Yes, I also had it with a much smaller drop initially and then went extremely pessimistic as sort of a "worst case" scenario. I think I'll probably be way off that day, and yours should be much closer to reality. (Off the top of my head, I think I went with a 20% drop originally.) You've probably got me beat on this first Tuesday/Wednesday though. I went with 19% drop on Wednesday...just have a hunch that it might get some help from more kids getting out of school that day. Chipmunks actually increased 0.1% on that same day in 2011. Of course that movie's performance was sort of all over the map during the holidays. The Christmas number doesn't make sense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GiantCALBears Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 22 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said: Yes, I think it falls fairly steeply on its second weekend, mainly because of Christmas Eve. I think I'm being a bit conservative with the Christmas Sunday jump, so it could go higher than my 60m. But I don't think there's any chance it gets to 70m+ unless it does something unprecedented this week. But it its third weekend should have only a very small drop, basically countering the large drop from the second. You just want to save our predictions. Well played sir, use the force. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 2 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said: You just want to save our predictions. Well played sir, use the force. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Quote Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Trolls 20th Century Fox $292,371 -41% 1,714 $171 $147,719,189 Miss Peregrine’s Home for… 20th Century Fox $14,793 -49% 181 $82 $86,705,434 Rules Don’t Apply 20th Century Fox $987 -37% 44 $22 $3,648,823 Jackie Fox Searchlight $82,746 -55% 84 $985 $1,699,126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daxtreme Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 On reddit: 4 points So is this when the sub [read: box office subreddit] going to come to terms with the fact that this film isn't going to be as leggy as TFA? I think they might be in for a surprise. It might not reach TFA multiplier... but I think it's gonna be a lot closer than they think. Certainly not below 3. Then again, it could even have better legs than TFA for all we know since it opened lower. That would require the movie to be an event though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Quote Office Christmas Party Paramount $1,326,878 -48% 3,210 $413 $32,982,673 Arrival Paramount $487,412 -48% 2,157 $226 $87,153,737 Allied Paramount $218,607 -46% 1,625 $135 $38,750,700 Jack Reacher: Never.. Paramount $18,384 -42% 235 $78 $58,292,613 Fences Paramount $15,141 -61% 4 $3,785 $144,603 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
junkshop36 Posted December 20, 2016 Share Posted December 20, 2016 Saw it again today. Just as good the second time around. Plus, knowing what was coming actually made it fly by this time. I was also able to catch more of the little Easter eggs in there. Such a good movie ? ?? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...