Mattrek Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 2 hours ago, Porthos said: Seeing how well a blockbuster does in this time frame (Sing) while another one is throwing its weight around (R1) is going to be very very interesting. Should be more than enough room for both of them. But the proof is in the pudding, as the old saying goes. It seems to me in general the movies feed off each other. When one's showtime sells out people go to the next best thing. As long as the movie is anticipated they both tend to increase higher then you think. Remember Avatar, Sherlock Holmes and Alvin? I think we're looking at the same case here of the movies helping one another. Though admittedly the smaller guy usually gets the bigger boost. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 So we're all going to panic when this stays flat, right? Or even worse, falls a bit. Haven't had a good panic in AT LEAST a couple of days. We're overdue. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plain Old Tele Posted December 21, 2016 Author Share Posted December 21, 2016 2 minutes ago, Porthos said: So we're all going to panic when this stays flat, right? Or even worse, falls a bit. Haven't had a good panic in AT LEAST a couple of days. We're overdue. You better watch yourself. We're wanted men. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 7 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said: You better watch yourself. We're wanted men. I have forum suspensions from twelve SysOps. ---| I'll be careful You'll be BANNED! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 It seems odd (referring to Steve) to talk about using feelings when predicting the box office. I mean, I FEEL like The Force Awakens should have cleared $1B because I loved it so much, and I also feel like if everyone saw the movie 41 times like I did, it would still be playing in theaters because it would be impossible to meet the demand for 13+ billion tickets within one calendar year. And by the time that demand was anywhere close to satisfied, let's be honest, I would have been at 70 viewings and the vicious circle would continue where there was simply no room for new movie openings because TFA would be cram-packed on all 20 multiplex screens But box office doesn't work with feelings, it works on facts and data. Rogue One feels like a bigger deal to me than Jurassic World, because I'm a Star Wars fan, and it is a bigger deal. That doesn't mean it'll clear $630M or whatever, because my personal feelings have not a goddamn thing to do with the box office. I'm just saying, it's odd to criticize other posters for throwing out charts, data, comparison movies, etc. What other posters here do is extremely impressive to me, I mean they take it seriously and it's a fun game predicting where things lie. Sure, we all disagree sometimes, bicker over it, etc. but ultimately a lot of people here are using what they believe are the best data points for comparison and making educated guesses based on that data. If we wanted to talk about our feelings, I'm not sure a box office forum would be the right place to do that... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deep Wang Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 3 hours ago, SteveJaros said: You guys have your charts and multipliers and historical data and trend lines, which is fine. I just go on how I feel about a movie. Going with how you feel about a movie is okay, BEFORE release. That's all pretty much anyone has to go on. Once a movie is out, that's where the charts and the historical data come into play. I mean, your gut feelings have so far been really, REALLY wrong. You have noticed that right? That's why everyone assumes you're a troll. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrFanaticGuy34 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 (edited) Hmm.... Has anyone noticed that The Polar Express has that "Gold Highlight", which means that the most recent re-release is still in theaters? And it's now at $185.4M DOM & $309M WW? Edited December 21, 2016 by MrFanaticGuy34 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porthos Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 (edited) 7 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said: Hmm.... Has anyone noticed that The Polar Express has that "Gold Highlight", which means that the most recent re-release is still in theaters? And it's now at $185.4M DOM & $309M WW? Seen a couple of ticket sales pop up on Pulse here and there. *checks* Was rereleased on Fri. Looks like it's been re-released every single year since it first came out. I'm sure someone here can chime in with the exact length of this run. Edited December 21, 2016 by Porthos 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 So it's looking like 100M is dead for Arrival; it's losing over 1,700 theaters this week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Let's wait for an Arrival expansion once the nominations are announced 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 God I hope not. Unless you mean the Razzies, then Arrival deserves all of the attention it can get lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 17 minutes ago, stripe said: Let's wait for an Arrival expansion once the nominations are announced Even an Oscar boost won't be enough to get it there. 11 minutes ago, JonathanLB said: God I hope not. Unless you mean the Razzies, then Arrival deserves all of the attention it can get lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanLB Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aabattery Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 21 minutes ago, JonathanLB said: God I hope not. Unless you mean the Razzies, then Arrival deserves all of the attention it can get lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 (edited) 7 hours ago, Brainiac5 said: Let's see where the South called "Will Smith Flop " will land. South ??? 7 hours ago, SteveJaros said: I first followed weekly box office in the summer of 1982, when ET was tracking down Star Wars. As for 2011, I was the first around here to note that 2011 was the last year where the days of the week matched up with this year. You guys have your charts and multipliers and historical data and trend lines, which is fine. I just go on how I feel about a movie. To me, $400m DOM is massive and I don't take it for granted, unless you're TFA or JW and open at over $200m. If the last two weeks of December always means massive weekday numbers, then all the top films of all time would be December releases and yet for every Avatar or TFA there is a JW or Avengers or Dory that is bigger in the summer. Probably more years than not, the biggest film of the year is a summer not Christmas release. In any event, I like R1 a lot, and will see it again this week. Nobody will be happier if it reaches $500m DOM than me. But I'm not counting on it. 3 hours ago, Rallax said: Going with how you feel about a movie is okay, BEFORE release. That's all pretty much anyone has to go on. Once a movie is out, that's where the charts and the historical data come into play. I mean, your gut feelings have so far been really, REALLY wrong. You have noticed that right? That's why everyone assumes you're a troll. I think that is a bit narrow... not sure the word. Giving rules for... 1. It is early days into the run, some people want to see a few more actuals, before daring to be more hopeful. Others jump early on too high, too low or even correct next day's actuals, based on the details known, using models. And miss sometimes details like the weather, the spread of the holidays over which weekdays, competition or,... and are only right or wrong because,... this and that. See e.g. deadline's w/e prediction, that seem to have forgotten to exclude the previews for their drops (or so, according to the posts here, I didn't check) So a person, who uses a gut feeling will need more than a few days, as it is a gut feeling based thing, and as such slower to adjust (and must not excluded automatically) Slower to adjust.. maybe: 2. if having started earlier in the cinema existing times, older people are definitively used to lower numbers. I forgot, but I think Tele is in his '40 (or younger) and can as such remember, as he told very recently, about it was special when/if (?) a film made a total of $100m. BKB and Steve Jaros are both older (I think both are around 52) and as such younger than me. We can remember times, as a film under $100m was a very great thing also. I am often still amazed about which heights BO can reach, especially the last some years and considering the falling audience counts,... This weekend we had a discussion about what $ is a phenomenon and I said I think it is $450m but will probably shift in the 'nearer' future to $475m. But: to name it as $450m for my POV is a very recent thing, and happened because e.g. of the discussions in Baumers under $450m club. Without having thought about that ~ number, I'd still say $300m+ (I did even point out recently that to me a $300m total is still a mind-blowing / huuuuge accomplish in my POV too (Tele's too) is an remarkable accomplish, and $350m is the point to phenomenon (at least for the year). = nothing I am 'expecting' any film to reach, and nothing I feel should be taken as granted, see Jaros's explanation. To me btw, its depending a bit also on the budget, in this case especially the OS advertising (too often not that good placed or even tried aka not really existing, like again in a lot of regions for SW R1 btw) a ww result of $600m or even $700m is still ... wow, even if I am pretty sure SW R1 will surpass that too So maybe take into account, that a not calculation model based feeling combined with other experiences (including to have lived through great OW, that fail to reach hoped for end results probably more often than today younger), can mean a slower change / adjustment to a higher number now hoped for, see weather,... and never as granted. Edited December 21, 2016 by terrestrial 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrFanaticGuy34 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 2 hours ago, Porthos said: Seen a couple of ticket sales pop up on Pulse here and there. *checks* Was rereleased on Fri. Looks like it's been re-released every single year since it first came out. I'm sure someone here can chime in with the exact length of this run. True. Thought so. Plenty of more re-releases, and it might approach $200M+ DOM in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brainiac5 Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 1 hour ago, terrestrial said: South ??? I think that is a bit narrow... not sure the word. Giving rules for... 1. It is early days into the run, some people want to see a few more actuals, before daring to be more hopeful. Others jump early on too high, too low or even correct next day's actuals, based on the details known, using models. And miss sometimes details like the weather, the spread of the holidays over which weekdays, competition or,... and are only right or wrong because,... this and that. See e.g. deadline's w/e prediction, that seem to have forgotten to exclude the previews for their drops (or so, according to the posts here, I didn't check) So a person, who uses a gut feeling will need more than a few days, as it is a gut feeling based thing, and as such slower to adjust (and must not excluded automatically) Slower to adjust.. maybe: 2. if having started earlier in the cinema existing times, older people are definitively used to lower numbers. I forgot, but I think Tele is in his '40 (or younger) and can as such remember, as he told very recently, about it was special when/if (?) a film made a total of $100m. BKB and Steve Jaros are both older (I think both are around 52) and as such younger than me. We can remember times, as a film under $100m was a very great thing also. I am often still amazed about which heights BO can reach, especially the last some years and considering the falling audience counts,... This weekend we had a discussion about what $ is a phenomenon (I mean the part = in $ terms) and I said I think it is $450m but will probably shift in the nearer future to $475m. But: to name it as $450m for my POV is a very recent thing, and happened because of the discussions I tried to follow in Baumers under $50m club. Without having thought about that ~ number, I'd still say $300m+ (I did even point out maybe a month back that to me a $300m total is still a mind-blowing / huuuuge accomplish in my POV too (Tele's too) ist an remarkable accomplish, and $350m is the point to phenomenon (at least for the year). = nothing I am 'expecting' any film to reach, and nothing I feel should be taken as granted, see Jaros's explanation. To me btw, depending a bit also on the budget, in this case especially the one for OS advertising (too often not that good placed or even tried aka not really existing, like again in a lot of regions for SW R1 btw) a ww result of $600m or even $700m is still ... wow, even if I am pretty sure SW R1 will surpass that too So maybe take into account, that a not calculation model feeling combined with other experiences (including to have lived through great OW, that fail to reach hoped for end results probably more often), can mean a slower change / adjustment to a higher number now hoped for, see weather,,... see granted. I fixed it.Spellcheck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 (edited) No early Tuesday numbers yet? Edited December 21, 2016 by George Parr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 9 minutes ago, George Parr said: No early Tuesday numbers yet? great smiley choice! Made me laugh aloud! (and I needed that, just coming back from PT) 23 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said: I fixed it.Spellcheck Thank you, now I understand what you meant to say! Screen International @Screendaily 8 minutes ago EXCLUSIVE: #BladeRunner2049 will be R-rated, confirms Denis Villeneuve http://bit.ly/2i9BOwP 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George Parr Posted December 21, 2016 Share Posted December 21, 2016 3 minutes ago, terrestrial said: great smiley choice! Made me laugh aloud! (and I needed that, just coming back from PT) I was looking for a smiley that was pacing up and down when I stumbled over this one, it was too good to pass up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
