Monday Numbers, Dec 19 | R1 17.596M

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, GiantCALBears said:

Those holds are th optimistic scenario, don't you agree? Those movies don't seem like a great comparison even if the days line up correctly.

 

Maybe it's optimistic, but I think it will be a lot closer to those numbers than you probably expect.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

After reading that, I added some color marks, I do not want to be responsible for that 

 

Ah, my fault as I wasn't fully awake.  Still that "15.5" was a good wake up call. 

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

 

My model is much more conservative, it has it at about 422m through Jan 2. 

 

[Dark 33Legend of the Sith]

10 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

We'll see how it goes. Here are the numbers I just ran while looking at Sherlock 2, MI4, and Chipmunks from 2011 and accounting for differences in Tuesday/Wednesday trends.

 

MON - 17.7

TUE - 19.1 (+8%)

WED - 15.5 (-19%)

THU - 17.0 (+10%)

FRI - 23.0 (+35%)

SAT - 12.7 (-45%)

SUN - 29.3 (+131%)

MON - 32.0 (+9.2%)

 

My brief extrapolations had it very close as well for that Monday.  Maybe a coin flip but I was looking at a 32ish number as well.  It may be optimistic but I think it has a legit chance.

[Plain Old Tele]

Whoops, @redfirebird2008, I misread my table. It would be at 430m. 

 

Just for total transparency:

12/19    -53.00%    $17,709,211    $172,790,892
12/20    7.00%    $18,948,856    $191,739,747
12/21    -24.00%    $14,401,130    $206,140,878
12/22    8.00%    $15,553,221    $221,694,098
12/23    45.00%    $22,552,170    $244,246,268
12/24    -44.00%    $12,629,215    $256,875,484
12/25    100.00%    $25,258,430    $282,133,914
12/26    15.00%    $29,047,195    $311,181,109
12/27    -25.00%    $21,785,396    $332,966,505
12/28    -19.00%    $17,646,171    $350,612,676
12/29    -2.00%    $17,293,248    $367,905,923
12/30    20.00%    $20,751,897    $388,657,820
12/31    -22.00%    $16,186,480    $404,844,300
1/1    10.00%    $17,805,128    $422,649,428
1/2    -55.00%    $8,012,307    $430,661,735

 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

Whoops, @redfirebird2008, I misread my table. It would be at 430m. 

 

Just for total transparency:

12/19    -53.00%    $17,709,211    $172,790,892
12/20    7.00%    $18,948,856    $191,739,747
12/21    -24.00%    $14,401,130    $206,140,878
12/22    8.00%    $15,553,221    $221,694,098
12/23    45.00%    $22,552,170    $244,246,268
12/24    -44.00%    $12,629,215    $256,875,484
12/25    100.00%    $25,258,430    $282,133,914
12/26    15.00%    $29,047,195    $311,181,109
12/27    -25.00%    $21,785,396    $332,966,505
12/28    -19.00%    $17,646,171    $350,612,676
12/29    -2.00%    $17,293,248    $367,905,923
12/30    20.00%    $20,751,897    $388,657,820
12/31    -22.00%    $16,186,480    $404,844,300
1/1    10.00%    $17,805,128    $422,649,428
1/2    -55.00%    $8,012,307    $430,661,735

 

 

So you have it at $60m for the second weekend. Deadline and Forbes are both expecting $77m. I have it at $65m. They are in for a shock if your number turns out correct.

[Daxtreme]

3 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

Monday 12/26    15.00%    $29,047,195    $311,181,109

 

NOT A RECORD

[Plain Old Tele]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

So you have it at $60m for the second weekend. Deadline and Forbes are both expecting $77m. I have it at $65m. They are in for a shock if your number turns out correct.

 

Yes, I think it falls fairly steeply on its second weekend, mainly because of Christmas Eve. I think I'm being a bit conservative with the Christmas Sunday jump, so it could go higher than my 60m. But I don't think there's any chance it gets to 70m+ unless it does something unprecedented this week. 

 

But it its third weekend should have only a very small drop, basically countering the large drop from the second. 

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, Grand Moff Tele said:

 

Yes, I think it falls fairly steeply on its second weekend, mainly because of Christmas Eve. I think I'm being a bit conservative with the Christmas Sunday jump, so it could go higher than my 60m. But I don't think there's any chance it gets to 70m+ unless it does something unprecedented this week. 

 

But it its third weekend should have only a very small drop, basically countering the large drop from the second. 

 

You and I both have it dropping hard Saturday. I have it at 45% Saturday drop and 131% Sunday increase. Sherlock was in the 140's and MI4 was 119. Chipmunks movie was at 58% increase, but it looks like most movies went well above 100% that day.

[terrestrial]

Quote

Nocturnal Animals	Focus Features	$209,512	-49%	1,246	$168	$9,037,966
Loving	Focus Features	$42,347	-41%	396	$107	$7,153,771
Almost Christmas	Universal	$93,745	-45%	720	$130	$41,302,230
The Secret Life of Pets	Universal	$10,130	-46%	165	$61	$368,233,500
The Girl on the Train	Universal	$8,315	-34%	112	$74	$75,319,760
Incarnate	High Top Releasing	$30,496	-41%	318	$96	$4,754,010

 

[redfirebird2008]

18 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

Whoops, @redfirebird2008, I misread my table. It would be at 430m. 

 

Just for total transparency:

12/30    20.00%    $20,751,897    $388,657,820
12/31    -22.00%    $16,186,480    $404,844,300
1/1    10.00%    $17,805,128    $422,649,428
1/2    -55.00%    $8,012,307    $430,661,735

 

 

That 55% drop on Monday the 2nd looks very steep compared to the last time New Year's Day was a Sunday.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2012-01-02&p=.htm

 

I went with 14% drop from a $21m Sunday to a $18m Monday.

[Plain Old Tele]

8 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

You and I both have it dropping hard Saturday. I have it at 45% Saturday drop and 131% Sunday increase. Sherlock was in the 140's and MI4 was 119. Chipmunks movie was at 58% increase, but it looks like most movies went well above 100% that day.

 

I think I originally put +120% for Sunday but given I was going for a conservative approach, I scales down it down to 100% on the theory that demand might've burnt off a bit. 

[Plain Old Tele]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

That 55% drop on Monday the 2nd looks very steep compared to the last time New Year's Day was a Sunday.

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2012-01-02&p=.htm

 

I went with 14% drop from a $21m Sunday to a $18m Monday.

 

Yes, I also had it with a much smaller drop initially and then went extremely pessimistic as sort of a "worst case" scenario. I think I'll probably be way off that day, and yours should be much closer to reality. (Off the top of my head, I think I went with a 20% drop originally.)

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, Grand Moff Tele said:

 

Yes, I also had it with a much smaller drop initially and then went extremely pessimistic as sort of a "worst case" scenario. I think I'll probably be way off that day, and yours should be much closer to reality. (Off the top of my head, I think I went with a 20% drop originally.)

 

You've probably got me beat on this first Tuesday/Wednesday though. I went with 19% drop on Wednesday...just have a hunch that it might get some help from more kids getting out of school that day. Chipmunks actually increased 0.1% on that same day in 2011. Of course that movie's performance was sort of all over the map during the holidays. The Christmas number doesn't make sense.

[GiantCALBears]

22 minutes ago, Grand Moff Tele said:

 

Yes, I think it falls fairly steeply on its second weekend, mainly because of Christmas Eve. I think I'm being a bit conservative with the Christmas Sunday jump, so it could go higher than my 60m. But I don't think there's any chance it gets to 70m+ unless it does something unprecedented this week. 

 

But it its third weekend should have only a very small drop, basically countering the large drop from the second. 

You just want to save our predictions. Well played sir, use the force. 

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

You just want to save our predictions. Well played sir, use the force. 

 

 

[terrestrial]

Quote

Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross
Trolls	20th Century Fox	$292,371	-41%	1,714	$171	$147,719,189
Miss Peregrine’s Home for…	20th Century Fox	$14,793	-49%	181	$82	$86,705,434
Rules Don’t Apply	20th Century Fox	$987	-37%	44	$22	$3,648,823
Jackie	Fox Searchlight	$82,746	-55%	84	$985	$1,699,126

 

[Daxtreme]

On reddit:

 

 4 points

So is this when the sub [read: box office subreddit] going to come to terms with the fact that this film isn't going to be as leggy as TFA?

 

I think they might be in for a surprise.

 

It might not reach TFA multiplier... but I think it's gonna be a lot closer than they think. Certainly not below 3.

 

Then again, it could even have better legs than TFA for all we know since it opened lower.

 

That would require the movie to be an event though 

 

[terrestrial]

Quote

Office Christmas Party	Paramount	$1,326,878	-48%	3,210	$413	$32,982,673
Arrival	Paramount	$487,412	-48%	2,157	$226	$87,153,737
Allied	Paramount	$218,607	-46%	1,625	$135	$38,750,700
Jack Reacher: Never..	Paramount	$18,384	-42%	235	$78	$58,292,613
Fences	Paramount	$15,141	-61%	4	$3,785	$144,603

 

[junkshop36]

Saw it again today. Just as good the second time around. Plus, knowing what was coming actually made it fly by this time. 

 

I was also able to catch more of the little Easter eggs in there. 

 

Such a good movie ? ??