Weekend Thread (Dec-30-Jan 2nd) 3/4-day #s R1 49.5m/64.3m, Sing 42.8m/56.4m, Pass 16.15m/20.7m, Moana 10.97m/14.3m, WH 10.6m/13m, Fences 10m/12.7m

[Maxmoser3]

I think we might relive Frozen nearly knocking off the Hobbit 3 again with Rogue One and Sing. But Sing might come up on the weekly maybe, but it's hard to tell. January 2017 will be holdover bound, Underworld 5 will make $$$ overseas but not enough for Underworld 6, Monster Trucks will bomb, Sleepless will be this year's Triple 9, Bye Bye Man will debut around Devil's Due, XxX 3/Split do decent numbers, Resident Evil 6 does ok and A Dog's Purpose should do fine. 

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Looking at both Ghost Protocol* and Game of Shadows, a 15 to 20 percent drop looks to be in the ballpark range for R1.  Moana might be hit worse, or it might actually have an increase  given where it's at in the release cycle.  Be interesting to find out.

 

* I keep forgetting to look at GP for comps on how blockbusters do in the holidays, but that's because of its weird rollout it had.  I wasn't paying attention that year, so just what was up with that rollout strategy for it, anyway (opened at 425 some odd theaters and then went wide the next weekend)?

 

GP opened IMAX only for a week to get word of mouth going thanks to the Dubai scene. They needed that after MI3 disappointed.

[TalismanRing]

Just now, grey ghost said:

 

What prop was worse?

 

Pratt's fake beard in Passengers vs Tilda Swinton's bald cap in Dr Strange

 

Tilda shaved her head

 

[grey ghost]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

They're both gonna drop on NYE, I would think.  The last time NYE fell on a Sat:

 

Rank*	Title	Friday 12/30	Saturday 12/31	Sunday 1/1
1	MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - GHOST PROTOCOL Paramount 3,455	$10,631,148 +28.9% / $3,077 $113,615,355 / 15	$8,731,970 -17.9% / $2,527 $122,347,325 / 16	$10,058,761 +15.2% / $2,911 $132,406,086 / 17
2	SHERLOCK HOLMES: A GAME OF SHADOWS Warner Bros. 3,703	$7,628,273 +20.5% / $2,060 $117,650,599 / 15	$6,401,030 -16.1% / $1,729 $124,051,629 / 16	$6,852,117 +7% / $1,850 $130,903,746 / 17
3	WAR HORSE Buena Vista 2,547	$4,697,820 +30% / $1,844 $30,726,863 / 6	$5,625,334 +19.7% / $2,209 $36,352,197 / 7	$4,099,575 -27.1% / $1,610 $40,451,772 / 8
4	ALVIN AND THE CHIPMUNKS: CHIPWRECKED Fox 3,724	$7,041,547 +8% / $1,891 $83,400,882 / 15	$4,750,314 -32.5% / $1,276 $88,151,196 / 16	$4,577,938 -3.6% / $1,229 $92,729,134 / 17
5	WE BOUGHT A ZOO Fox 3,163	$4,850,417 +18.7% / $1,533 $32,337,734 / 8	$4,501,719 -7.2% / $1,423 $36,839,453 / 9	$3,886,105 -13.7% / $1,229 $40,725,558 / 10
6	THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (2011) Sony / Columbia 2,914	$5,334,091 +28.7% / $1,831 $46,094,395 / 10	$4,244,295 -20.4% / $1,457 $50,338,690 / 11	$5,246,191 +23.6% / $1,800 $55,584,881 / 12
7	THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN Paramount 3,087	$4,405,247 +7% / $1,427 $40,444,234 / 10	$3,407,793 -22.6% / $1,104 $43,852,027 / 11	$3,623,120 +6.3% / $1,174 $47,475,147 / 12
8	NEW YEAR'S EVE Warner Bros. (New Line) 2,225	$2,254,318 +27.5% / $1,013 $41,919,368 / 22	$2,285,886 +1.4% / $1,027 $44,205,254 / 23	$1,794,096 -21.5% / $806 $45,999,350 / 24
9	THE DESCENDANTS Fox Searchlight 758	$1,098,787 +33.1% / $1,450 $37,123,433 / 45	$1,251,598 +13.9% / $1,651 $38,375,031 / 46	$1,045,744 -16.4% / $1,380 $39,420,775 / 47
10	THE DARKEST HOUR Summit Entertainment 2,327	$1,656,459 +37.1% / $712 $10,631,181 / 6	$1,041,303 -37.1% / $447 $11,672,484 / 7	$1,465,479 +40.7% / $630 $13,137,963 / 8
11	THE MUPPETS Buena Vista 1,541	$1,104,535 +8.8% / $717 $80,971,796 / 38	$823,487 -25.4% / $534 $81,795,283 / 39	$734,169 -10.8% / $476 $82,529,452 / 40
12	HUGO Paramount 951	$845,430 +13.4% / $889 $47,838,022 / 38	$785,343 -7.1% / $826 $48,623,365 / 39	$830,837 +5.8% / $874 $49,454,202 / 40

 

 

Not exactly many increases on the board there.

 

How close have RO's daily drops been to SH2 so far?

[grim22]

Looks like Sing will be really close to the "impossible" mark of 180M by Monday @WrathOfHan

[dxmatrixdt]

TFA fell 18% NYE Thursday, Rebounded 50% NYD Friday.

 

18% Rogue One drop, and a Sunday to match Friday should be fair.

18.2

14.9

18.2

= 51.3

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

How close have RO's daily drops been to SH2 so far?

 

GoS:

Quote

2011/12/16	1	$14,607,982		3,703	$3,945	$14,607,982	1
2011/12/17	1	$14,694,463	+1%	3,703	$3,968	$29,302,445	2
2011/12/18	1	$10,334,634	-30%	3,703	$2,791	$39,637,079	3
2011/12/19	1	$4,926,128	-52%	3,703	$1,330	$44,563,207	4
2011/12/20	1	$5,162,067	+5%	3,703	$1,394	$49,725,274	5
2011/12/21	3	$4,283,299	-17%	3,703	$1,157	$54,008,573	6
2011/12/22	2	$4,745,049	+11%	3,703	$1,281	$58,753,622	7
2011/12/23	2	$6,755,371	+42%	3,703	$1,824	$65,508,993	8
2011/12/24	2	$3,898,691	-42%	3,703	$1,053	$69,407,684	9
2011/12/25	2	$9,616,493	+147%	3,703	$2,597	$79,024,177	10
2011/12/26	2	$10,829,958	+13%	3,703	$2,925	$89,854,135	11
2011/12/27	2	$7,321,067	-32%	3,703	$1,977	$97,175,202	12
2011/12/28	3	$6,515,996	-11%	3,703	$1,760	$103,691,198	13
2011/12/29	3	$6,331,128	-3%	3,703	$1,710	$110,022,326	14
2011/12/30	2	$7,628,273	+20%	3,703	$2,060	$117,650,599	15

 

R1:

Quote

2016/12/16	1	$71,094,394		4,157	$17,102	$71,094,394	1
2016/12/17	1	$46,308,115	-35%	4,157	$11,140	$117,402,509	2
2016/12/18	1	$37,679,172	-19%	4,157	$9,064	$155,081,681	3
2016/12/19	1	$17,596,150	-53%	4,157	$4,233	$172,677,831	4
2016/12/20	1	$17,582,978	n/c	4,157	$4,230	$190,260,809	5
2016/12/21	1	$14,965,790	-15%	4,157	$3,600	$205,226,599	6
2016/12/22	1	$16,773,075	+12%	4,157	$4,035	$221,999,674	7
2016/12/23	1	$22,860,256	+36%	4,157	$5,499	$244,859,930	8
2016/12/24	1	$15,308,508	-33%	4,157	$3,683	$260,168,438	9
2016/12/25	1	$25,865,004	+69%	4,157	$6,222	$286,033,442	10
2016/12/26	1	$32,085,637	+24%	4,157	$7,718	$318,119,079	11
2016/12/27	1	$22,515,612	-30%	4,157	$5,416	$340,634,691	12
2016/12/28	1	$18,021,482	-20%	4,157	$4,335	$358,656,173	13
2016/12/29	1	$16,722,532	-7%	4,157	$4,023	$375,378,705	14

 

2016/12/30: ≈18,200,000 ≈+8.8%

 

Xmas Day was the BIG outlier.  But, then again, R1 had a better Boxing Day.

 

Not quite as close as it's been made out to be, but probably not that far off.  I'll let others crunch the numbers and make an analysis.  That's beyond my paygrade.

Edited December 31, 2016 by Porthos

[DAJK]

30 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

 

While BvS had major flaws, its RT rating was sheer lunacy or worse. Conversely, how did Ghostbusters achieve a 72% ????? Or Dr Strange get a 90% or something? Truly bizarre reactions by "certified critics" 

 

Because both were way better than BvS? Seriously, Ghostbusters is criminally underrated on these boards, it's insanely funny at parts, and just plain entertaining throughout.

[BadAtGender]

9 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Conversely there were increases on Friday for similar films and it didn't happen to the same extent.  @Doctor RTH gone Rouge even projects Moana to dip on Friday...

 

Moana made 4.16m on Thursday. 4.3m is an increase of about 3%.

[dxmatrixdt]

15.3 was XMAS EVE.  that would be -16.0% from 18.2..  Then it would just have to jump up 19% to match 18.2 again on Sunday. = 51.7 = 52 weekend.  We can only hope for a higher Friday number and good holds and increases.

[MovieMan89]

Woah @ Sing. Might end up with 300m after all if it pulls near 45 this weekend. I wish Moana had gotten its release spot now. 

 

Studios are going to be taking note, as Sing is proving that is a very viable blockbuster release slot. 

Edited December 31, 2016 by MovieMan89

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

GoS:

 

R1:

 

Xmas Day was the BIG outlier.  But, then again, R1 had a better Boxing Day.

 

Not quite as close as it's been made out to be, but probably not that far off.  I'll let others crunch the numbers and make an analysis.  That's beyond my paygrade.

 

 

Not really comparable from o/w to yesterday GOS had a 2.968 multi and Rogue's is 2.42

 

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

 

Moana made 4.16m on Thursday. 4.3m is an increase of about 3%.

 

Ah, thanks.  Must have been looking at Wed's number.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

15.3 was XMAS EVE.  that would be -16.0% from 18.2..  Then it would just have to jump up 19% to match 18.2 again on Sunday. = 51.7 = 52 weekend.  We can only hope for a higher Friday number and good holds and increases.

 

16% drop is within a possible range though, if we compare and contrast 2011, no?  Optimistic end, sure.  But still possible, I would think.

[grim22]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Because both were way better than BvS? Seriously, Ghostbusters is criminally underrated on these boards, it's insanely funny at parts, and just plain entertaining throughout.

 

I would say a comedy not making a 3x multiplier and the horrible OS results make it underseen not just on these boards. All the craziness around it and it ends up with a pretty forgettable run in the end.

 

I do think the Ghostbusters animated movie has potential if it ever actually gets made.

[grim22]

Moana looks like it will end the holidays with around 212-214M, basically a dead heat with TS2 and 85M behind Frozen. Frozen absolutely dominated the 2013 holidays as the only family choice, Sing prevented Moana from doing that.

[dxmatrixdt]

Based on RTH's numbers...

 

Rogue One - 18.2 (-14.3%) 15.6 (+16.7%) 18.2 = 52

Sing - 17 (-23.5%) 13 (+15.4%) 15 = 45

Passengers - 5.8 (-13.8%) 5.0 (+10%) 5.5 = 16.3

Moana - 4.3 (-23.3%) 3.3 (+3.0%) 3.4 = 10.0

Fences - 3.8 + 3.8 + 3.8 = 11.4

La La Land - 3.1 + 3.2 + 3.3 = 9.6

Assassin's - 3.0 (-20%) 2.4 (+25%) 3.0 = 8.4

Why Him? - 3.2 (-28.1%) 2.3 (+39.1%) - 3.2 = 8.7

Office XMAS???

COLLATERAL???

[PPZVGOS]

10 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Because both were way better than BvS? Seriously, Ghostbusters is criminally underrated on these boards, it's insanely funny at parts, and just plain entertaining throughout.

 

Dr Strange was another run of the mill Marvel movie. Adequate but forgettable. As for Ghostbusters? One of the greatest atrocities in the history of Hollywood. Batman & Robin at least has that so-bad-it's-good factor going for it. Ghostbusters was just an endless pile of crude, unfunny, noisy garbage. 

 

Back on topic. Rogue One is showing serious signs of decay in relation to SH2. This was partly to be expected since its numbers are that much bigger, but if this trend continues into the weekend and beyond the holidays, then we can expect it to finish at our low-ball estimations. I still expect to hold well post-holidays though. I think that Sing genuinely harmed Rogue One by taking a few families off it. It surely must have hurt it on the margins. 

[Dingdong123]

Sing stole Moana's audience 

[PPZVGOS]

This is Rogue One's ratio to SH2, starting from their first Saturday (first Friday excluded for obvious reasons)

 

1) 3.15

2) 3.66

3) 3.59

4) 3.38

5) 3.48

6) 3.57

7) 3.36

8) 3.92 (Xmas eve)

9) 2.69

10) 2.97

11) 3.08

12) 2.77

13) 2.65

14) 2.39 (estimate for Rogue One)

 

A lot depends on how strong The Force will be with Rogue One when the holidays are gone. I think that by then it's likely that the ratios will improve or at least stabilize. Rogue One will be struggling to hold from much lower numbers.