Best Picture predictions-2017!

[The Panda]

Just now, filmlover said:

No.

You're right, it's not a dark horse contender...

 

Spoiler

IT'S THE FRONTRUNNER!

 

[BardCrank]

That ridley scott nom was so random tho 

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, BardCrank said:

That ridley scott nom was so random tho 

Welcome to the Golden Globes, home of shameless star-pandering.

[BardCrank]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

Welcome to the Golden Globes, home of shameless star-pandering.

well , Emma Watson wasn't nominated , they got 4 of the 5 directors right ( gerwig    ) and the acting noms were the usual suspects 

so the only curve ball is the unexpected ATMITW nominations  

[filmlover]

21 minutes ago, BardCrank said:

so the only curve ball is the unexpected ATMITW nominations  

And perhaps the noms for The Greatest Showman (the movie's apparently being embargoed until opening day).

[Mrwick]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

Welcome to the Golden Globes, home of shameless star-pandering.

What is so bad about it being nominated? For all we know its a great movie

[WrathOfHan]

New predictions:

 

Spoiler

Picture:

 

1. The Post

2. Lady Bird

3. Three Billboards

4. Get Out

5. The Shape of Water

6. Dunkirk

7. Call Me by Your Name

8. The Florida Project

9. Phantom Thread

-----------------------

10. Mudbound

Alt: Darkest Hour

 

Director:

 

1. Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

2. Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

3. Steven Spielberg, The Post

4. Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

5. Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards

Alt: Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name

 

Actor:

 

1. Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

2. Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

3. Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name

4. James Franco, The Disaster Artist

5. Tom Hanks, The Post

Alt: Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

 

Actress:

 

1. Meryl Streep, The Post

2. Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

3. Frances McDormand, Three Billboards

4. Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

5. Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Alt: Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul

 

Supporting Actor:

 

1. Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

2. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

3. Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

4. Bob Odenkirk, The Post

5. Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards

Alt: Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name

 

Supporting Actress:

 

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

3. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

4. Hong Chau, Downsizing

5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Alt: Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

 

Original Screenplay:

 

1. The Post

2. Three Billboards

3. Lady Bird

4. Get Out

5. The Shape of Water

Alt: Phantom Thread

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Call Me by Your Name

2. The Disaster Artist

3. Mudbound

4. Molly's Game

5. Wonder

Alt: Blade Runner 2049

 

Animated:

 

1. Coco

2. The Breadwinner

3. Loving Vincent

4. Ferdinand

5. In This Corner of the World

Alt: The Boss Baby

 

Cinematography:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. The Shape of Water

4. Mudbound

5. The Post

Alt: Call Me by Your Name

 

Editing:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. The Shape of Water

3. The Post

4. Three Billboards

5. Get Out

Alt: Baby Driver

 

Score:

 

1. The Shape of Water

2. Dunkirk

3. Phantom Thread

4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

5. Three Billboards

Alt: Darkest Hour

 

Song:

 

1. Remember Me, Coco

2. The Mystery of Love, Call Me by Your Name

3. The Greatest Showman

4. I Don't Wanna Live Forever, Fifty Shades Darker

5. Evermore, Beauty and the Beast

Alt: Un Poco Loco, Coco

 

Production Design:

 

1. The Shape of Water

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. Phantom Thread

4. Dunkirk

5. The Post
Alt: Darkest Hour

 

Costume Design:

 

1. Phantom Thread

2. The Shape of Water

3. Beauty and the Beast

4. The Greatest Showman

5. Mudbound

Alt: Murder on the Orient Express

 

Makeup:

 

1. Darkest Hour

2. Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2

3. Wonder

Alt: I, Tonya

 

Visual Effects:
 

1. Blade Runner 2049

2. The Shape of Water

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4. War for the Planet of the Apes

5. Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2

Alt: Dunkirk

 

Sound Editing:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. Blade Runner 2049

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4. mother!

5. Baby Driver

Alt: The Shape of Water

 

Sound Mixing:

 

1. Dunkirk

2. Baby Driver

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

4. mother!

5. The Shape of Water

Alt: Blade Runner 2049

 

Nomination Count:

Spoiler

 

13:

The Shape of Water (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design, Costume Design, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing)

 

9:

The Post (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design)

 

8:

Dunkirk (Picture, Director, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

Three Billboards (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor x2, Original Screenplay, Editing, Score)

 

5:

Blade Runner 2049 (Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Visual Effects, Sound Editing)

Lady Bird (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay)

Phantom Thread (Picture, Actor, Score, Production Design, Costume Design)

 

4:

Call Me by Your Name (Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Song)

Mudbound (Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design)

Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Score, Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

 

3:

Get Out (Picture, Original Screenplay, Editing)

 

2:

Baby Driver (Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

Beauty and the Beast (Song, Costume Design)

Coco (Animated, Song)

Darkest Hour (Actor, Makeup)

The Disaster Artist (Actor, Adapted Screenplay)

The Florida Project (Picture, Supporting Actor)

The Greatest Showman (Song, Costume Design)

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 2 (Makeup, Visual Effects)

I, Tonya (Actress, Supporting Actress)

mother! (Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)

Wonder (Adapted Screenplay, Makeup)

 

 

I'm warming up to Mudbound being a bigger contender; it's way too strong for Netflix biases to block it.

The SAG snubs for CMBYN are showing signs of weakness. I can't see it getting Carol'd, but underperforming in nominations is totally possible.

The last four editing slots are wide open after Dunkirk. Shape of Water, The Post, 3B, Get Out, Baby Driver, and Star Wars are all competing for those spots. I'm going with the BP nominees right now, but Baby Driver has a lot of passion behind it.

I'm really curious if both sound categories can share all five nominees for once. There's really only about 7 movies competing in each category (Dunkirk/BR2049/TLJ/BD/mother!/SOW for both, OTB in Editing, Greatest Showman in mixing)

Edited December 13, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

I'll only believe a Netflix film is getting major recognition from the Academy when it actually happens.

[The Panda]

Updated, anything I put as an alt I consider still in contention, my number 1 pick is the predicted winner and anything with Toss Up to the side I could see potentially missing the cut.  My BP predicts are more on how many there are going to be rather than one of the alts swapping.  Currently predicting 9 noms, but I could see as little as 7-8.

 

 

Best Picture

1.       Get Out

2.       Lady Bird

3.       Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri

4.       Call Me By Your Name

5.       The Shape of Water

6.       The Big Sick (Toss Up)

7.       Dunkirk (Toss Up)

8.       The Florida Project (Toss Up)

9.       The Post (Toss Up)

Alts (in order): Mudbound (Toss Up), The Disaster Artist, I, Tonya, Phantom Thread, Wonder Woman, Logan, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

 

Best Director

1.       Guillermo Del Torro, The Shape of Water

2.       Jordan Peele, Get Out

3.       Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk

4.       Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

5.       Stephen Spielberg, The Post (Toss Up)

Alts (in order): Sean Baker, The Florida Project (Toss Up), Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name (Toss Up), Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards (Toss Up), Rian Johnson, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

 

Best Actress

1.       Frances McDormand, Three Billboards

2.       Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

3.       Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

4.       Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

5.       Meryl Streep, The Post (Toss Up)

Alts: Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul (Toss Up), Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game (Toss Up), Daisey Ridley, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

 

Best Actor

1.       Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

2.       Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

3.       James Franco, The Disaster Artist

4.       Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

5.       Daniel-Day Lewis, Phantom Thread (Toss Up)

Alts: Denzel Washington, Roman J Israel Esq (Toss Up), Tom Hanks, The Post (Toss Up), Mark Hamill, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Supporting Actress

1.       Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

2.       Allison Janney, I, Tonya

3.       Holly Hunter, The Big Sick

4.       Mary J. Blige, Mudbound (Toss Up)

5.       Hong Chau, Downsizing (Toss Up)

Alts: Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water (Toss Up), Tiffany Haddish (Toss Up), Carrie Fisher, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

 

Supporting Actor

1.       Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

2.       Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

3.       Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

4.       Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name (Toss Up)

5.       Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes (Toss Up)

Alts: Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards (Toss Up), Michael Stuhlberg, Call Me By Your Name (Toss Up), Patrick Stewart, Logan, Adam Driver, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

 

Adapted Screenplay

1.       Molly’s Game

2.       The Disaster Artist

3.       Call Me By Your Name

4.       Mudbound (Toss Up)

5.       Wonder (Toss Up)

Alts: Logan (Toss Up), Wonderstruck (Toss Up), Victoria and Abdul (Toss Up), Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Toss Up), Wonder Woman (Toss Up), Blade Runner 2049 (Toss Up)

 

Original Screenplay

1.       Get Out

2.       Lady Bird

3.       Three Billboards

4.       The Shape of Water (Toss Up)

5.       The Big Sick (Toss Up)

Alts: The Post (Toss Up), Phantom Thread, Dunkirk

 

Cinematography

1.       Blade Runner 2049

2.       The Shape of Water

3.       Dunkirk

4.       Mudbound (Toss Up)

5.       Call Me By Your Name (Toss Up)

Alts: The Florida Project (Toss Up), Wonder Wheel (Toss Up), Darkest Hour (Toss Up), Star Wars: The Last Jedi

 

Costume Design

1.       Beauty and the Beast

2.       Phantom Thread

3.       The Shape of Water (Toss Up)

4.       Blade Runner 2049 (Toss Up)

5.       Wonder Woman (Toss Up)

Alts: The Beguiled (Toss Up), Victoria and Abdul, Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Murder on the Orient Express, Dunkirk, Darkest Hour

 

Editing

1.       Dunkirk

2.       Baby Driver

3.       The Shape of Water (Toss Up)

4.       The Post (Toss Up)

5.       Blade Runner 2049 (Toss Up)

Alts: I, Tonya (Toss Up), Get Out (Toss Up), Three Billboards (Toss Up), Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Darkest Hour

 

Makeup and Hair

1.       The Shape of Water (Toss Up)

2.       I, Tonya (Toss Up)

3.       Darkest Hour (Toss Up)

Alts: Beauty and the Beast (Toss Up), Wonder (Toss Up), Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 (Toss Up), IT (Toss Up), Star Wars: The Last Jedi

 

Production Design

1.       The Shape of Water

2.       Blade Runner 2049

3.       Dunkirk (Toss Up)

4.       Phantom Thread (Toss Up)

5.       Beauty and the Beast (Toss Up)

Alts: Murder on the Orient Express (Toss Up), Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Get Out, Downsizing, Wonder Woman

 

Score

1.       The Shape of Water

2.       Phantom Thread

3.       Dunkirk

4.       Blade Runner 2049

5.       Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Toss Up)

Alts: The Post (Toss Up), War for the Planet of the Apes (Toss Up), Three Billboards (Toss Up), Wonder Woman, Darkest Hour, Wonderstruck

 

Song

1.       Remember Me from Coco

2.       This is Me from The Greatest Showman (Toss Up)

3.       The Mystery of Love from Call Me By Your Name (Toss Up)

4.       Stand Up for Something from Marshall (Toss Up)

5.       Evermore from Beauty and the Beast (Toss Up)

Alts: Mighty River (Toss Up), Visions of Gideon (Toss Up), Mystery of Love (Toss Up), It Ain’t Fair (Toss Up)

 

Sound Editing

1.       Dunkirk

2.       Blade Runner 2049

3.       Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Toss Up)

4.       War for the Planet of the Apes (Toss Up)

5.       Baby Driver (Toss Up)

Alts: The Shape of Water (Toss Up), Wonder Woman (Toss Up), Darkest Hour (Toss Up), Logan (Toss Up), Coco

 

Sound Mixing

1.       Dunkirk

2.       Blade Runner 2049

3.       Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Toss Up)

4.       Baby Driver (Toss Up)

5.       Shape of Water (Toss Up)

Alts: War for the Planet of the Apes (Toss Up), Beauty and the Beast (Toss Up), Darkest Hour (Toss Up), Wonder Woman (Toss Up), Logan (Toss Up), Coco (Toss Up)

 

VFX

1.       War for the Planet of the Apes

2.       Dunkirk (Toss Up)

3.       Blade Runner 2049 (Toss Up)

4.       Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Toss Up)

5.       The Shape of Water (Toss Up)

Alts: Wonder Woman (Toss Up). Thor: Ragnarok (Toss Up), Beauty and the Beast (Toss Up), Alien: Covenant, Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

 

Animated Feature

1.       Coco

2.       The Breadwinner

3.       Loving Vincent

4.       The Boss Baby (Toss Up)

5.       Despicable Me 3 (Toss Up)

Alts: The LEGO Batman Movie (Toss Up), Cars 3 (Toss Up), The Big Bad Fox and Other Tales (Toss Up), In This Corner of the World (Toss Up), Napping Princess (Toss Up), Ferdinand (Toss Up)

 

Documentary

1.       Faces Places

2.       City of Ghosts

3.       Jane

4.       Strong Island (Toss Up)

5.       Ex Libris (Toss Up)

Alts: LA 92 (Toss Up), Chasing Coral (Toss Up), Last Man in Aleppo (Toss Up), An Inconvenient Sequel, Icarus, Abascus, Human Flow

 

Animated Short

1.       Revolting Rhythms (Toss Up)

2.       Dear Basketball (Toss Up)

3.       In a Heartbeat (Toss Up)

4.       Cradle (Toss Up)

5.       Lou (Toss Up)

Alts: Negative Space, Fox and the Whale, Lost Property

 

Documentary Short

1.       Edith+Eddie (Toss Up)

2.       Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 (Toss Up)

3.       Alone (Toss Up)

4.       Ten Meter Tower (Toss Up)

5.       Heroine (Toss Up)

Alts: 116 Cameras, Ram Dass, Going Home, Kayayo: The Living Shopping Baskets, Knife Skills

[BardCrank]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

The Post (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design)

Please no , not another Streep oscar 

Don't even predict it please , for the sake of our mental sanity 

[That One Girl]

2 hours ago, BardCrank said:

Please no , not another Streep oscar 

Don't even predict it please , for the sake of our mental sanity 

 

lmao

[RichWS]

For the first time, Lady Bird feels like the front-runner to me. Preferential ballot will be very kind to it.

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, RichWS said:

For the first time, Lady Bird feels like the front-runner to me. Preferential ballot will be very kind to it.

I agree. I also think it's taking home both Actress awards now, and without breaking a sweat too.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

So, "Three Billboards is problematic!" has morphed into "Three Billboards is the new Crash!" And the Oscars aren't until March this year...

[AniNate]

2 minutes ago, BoxOfficeChica said:

So, "Three Billboards is problematic!" has morphed into "Three Billboards is the new Crash!" And the Oscars aren't until March this year...

Which means by the time they come around it'll be "Three Billboards is a pretty good movie"

[filmlover]

Anyone else getting a feeling that the Oscars will follow in SAG's footsteps and go with all female presenters this year? I feel like that's the only way they can avoid having Casey Affleck present Best Actress without looking like a witch hunt.

[Webslinger]

On 12/13/2017 at 6:39 AM, filmlover said:

And perhaps the noms for The Greatest Showman (the movie's apparently being embargoed until opening day).

Ouch... as if all the other signs weren't troubling enough, hiding a supposed awards bait film until its opening day is the ultimate kiss of death.

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, Webslinger said:

Ouch... as if all the other signs weren't troubling enough, hiding a supposed awards bait film until its opening day is the ultimate kiss of death.

I'm seeing it over the holidays no matter what. To say my expectations are on the "low" side at this point would be a massive understatement.

[WrathOfHan]

Foreign shortlist: https://www.thewrap.com/oscars-foreign-language-shortlist-includes-square-fantastic-woman/

 

Chile, “A Fantastic Woman,” Sebastián Lelio, director

Germany, “In the Fade,” Fatih Akin, director;

Hungary, “On Body and Soul,” Ildikó Enyedi, director

Israel, “Foxtrot,” Samuel Maoz, director

Lebanon, “The Insult,” Ziad Doueiri, director

Russia, “Loveless,” Andrey Zvyagintsev, director

Senegal, “Félicité,” Alain Gomis, director

South Africa, “The Wound,” John Trengove, director

Sweden, “The Square,” Ruben Ostlund, director

[SLAM!]

12 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Foreign shortlist: https://www.thewrap.com/oscars-foreign-language-shortlist-includes-square-fantastic-woman/

 

Chile, “A Fantastic Woman,” Sebastián Lelio, director

Germany, “In the Fade,” Fatih Akin, director;

Hungary, “On Body and Soul,” Ildikó Enyedi, director

Israel, “Foxtrot,” Samuel Maoz, director

Lebanon, “The Insult,” Ziad Doueiri, director

Russia, “Loveless,” Andrey Zvyagintsev, director

Senegal, “Félicité,” Alain Gomis, director

South Africa, “The Wound,” John Trengove, director

Sweden, “The Square,” Ruben Ostlund, director

 

Some surprising snubs for BPM and First They Killed My Father, but I'd say they put together a pretty good list. If I had to guess what the final five would be, I'd probably say:

 

1. Foxtrot (locked)

2. Loveless (locked)

3. The Square

4. On Body and Soul

5. Felicite

 

I say Loveless is a lock because its director won the Golden Globe three years ago with his film Leviathan. This leads me to believe he will win the Golden Globe this year as well.

 

I think there are three reasons why First They Killed My Father got snubbed. The first is the same reason why In The Land of Blood and Honey was nominated at the Golden Globe but missed one for the Oscar six years ago- Angelina Jolie's involvement can put a focus on America rather than another country. The second is that films from eastern asia have difficulty gaining traction and often have rugs pulled out from under them. The third can very likely be summed up by one word: Netflix.