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Best Picture predictions-2017!

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I think Three Billboards is going to win in the wake of Parkland. We've known about the sexual assault connection for a few months, but now the rage at local authority in the film parallels what we're seeing with the families of Parkland victims. Then again, preferential voting might still be enough to prevent a win. Who the hell knows at this point.

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6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I think Three Billboards is going to win in the wake of Parkland. We've known about the sexual assault connection for a few months, but now the rage at local authority in the film parallels what we're seeing with the families of Parkland victims. Then again, preferential voting might still be enough to prevent a win. Who the hell knows at this point.

I've already accepted it's gonna win and nothing will stop it. Let the years of bitching about it being an unworthy Best Picture winner commence.

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12 minutes ago, The Shape of Pasta said:

Shape of Water should leave with Production Design, Original Score, and Best Director, But I wouldn’t be surprised if that was all it won.

Locked: Director, Production Design, Score

80%: Cinematography

50/50: Picture

40%: Costume Design, Sound Editing (don't think Phantom Thread and Dunkirk are as safe as many think in these two)

30%: Editing

10% or less: Actress, Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing

Not happening: Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress

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Here's what I have right now, minus the categories where I haven't seen any of the nominees: 

Spoiler

Picture: The Shape of Water

Director: Guillermo Del Toro

Actor: Gary Oldman

Actress: Frances McDormand

Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell

Supporting Actress: Allison Janney

Adapted Screenplay: Call Me by Your Name

Original Screenplay: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Animated Feature: Coco

Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049

Costume Design: Phantom Thread

Film Editing: Dunkirk

Makeup: Darkest Hour

Original Score: The Shape of Water

Original Song: "Remember Me"

Production Design: The Shape of Water

Sound Editing: Dunkirk

Sound Mixing: Dunkirk

Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049

 

I'm totally being a fool with that Cinematography prediction (though he has picked up some wins here and there), but I just really want Deakins to finally win. I'm also rooting for Blade Runner 2049 to surprise in Production Design. In addition to the film's own merits, it would be pretty neat to see the Academy retroactively acknowledge the huge influences the original film's visual design and effects had in the subsequent decades by recognizing the sequel.

 

I'm probably also being foolish with Original Song. I know The Greatest Showman has connected with a lot of people and the guys who wrote the song have that post-La La Land afterglow working in their favor (though I'm going to be really unhappy if they win for a song that decidedly isn't the strongest on the soundtrack for the second year in a row), but the history of Disney winning this category when they have an acclaimed film nominated is hard to ignore. But perhaps I'm just letting my personal taste cloud my judgment here - "Remember Me" is fantastic, but "This Is Me" feels too on-the-nose even for a movie that never deals in subtlety.

 

I've been thinking lately: it's an extreme longshot and there isn't any useful precedent for it, but what about Dunkirk as a shock winner in Best Picture? I'll be stunned if it actually pulls this upset off, but think about it: it could have enough #1 votes to put it in the conversation, and it seems like the kind of film with enough widespread acclaim (and lack of vocal detractors) to potentially reap the benefits of the preferential ballot. I don't think it's going to happen, but in a year where each of the two supposed top films missed important precursors and we're still not entirely dismissing the possibility of a film potentially winning without any additional wins (oh hai, Get Out), any pipe dream feels a little less insane.

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Yeah, I don't want to count Dunkirk out either. The steak and potatoes audience that still makes up a solid majority of the academy no matter how many new voters were invited over the past few years; they are the reason why Darkest Hour is in the Best Picture lineup, and the chances that they may appreciate Dunkirk more than others is high. I agree with Webslinger; if a pipe dream winner is going to happen in any given year, this type of quiet year is the year for such a winner.

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On 22/02/2018 at 4:15 AM, filmlover said:

I've already accepted it's gonna win and nothing will stop it. Let the years of bitching about it being an unworthy Best Picture winner commence.

Tbh i thought 3b was one of the better BP nominations. Id rather see that win than TSOW

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On 25/02/2018 at 1:56 PM, BardCrank said:

What is it with the Birdman hate ? no seriously , why do you guys hate the win that much ? what should have won ? Boyhood ? 

 

Its pretentious. The revenant shouldn't have won either.

Edited by Jessie
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