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James

Pirates 5 biggest OS movie of the year

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Yep, I know a lot of you will laugh at this, but hey, I think it has a great shot at it. The history of the franchise OS is as follows:

 

POTC 1 - 349m

POTC 2 - 643m

POTC 3 - 654m

POTC 4 - 805m

 

- Of course, there is the possibility POTC 5 will decrease in some major markets, especially with the ER. But POTC4 came at a time when the Asian markets hadn't exploded yet. And yeah, some might argue that the China increase is slowing down, but even so, POTC 5 should have a big jump from POTC 4's 70m.

 

- The hiatus will help the series, as people were starving for another Pirates movie (and yes, they were, just looks at the insane number of views for that teaser!).

 

- The return of Orlando Bloom as Will and the continuation of his ark is sure to draw in old fans of the series which didn't attend the last movie.

 

- As competitors for the OS crown we have Fast and Furious 8, Transformers 5 and Star Wars VIII. The first one will drop big everywhere thanks to the lack of the element that made the series become so huge (Paul Walker's death). TF5 will be huge in China, but drop big in other markets. And SW8 will also drop a lot now that the novelty and nostalgia are gone. 700-800m tops is where both of those will end up.

 

- With a break meant to starve the audience, expanding markets and the return of most of the original cast, this should be huge. I'm expecting somewhere around 820-850m.    

 

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Not happening James. The last one was released when 3D was the 2nd coming of Jesus and exchange rates were better. Even if this sells the exact same amount of tickets as PotC4 OS, it will still see a moderate decrease.

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6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Not happening James. The last one was released when 3D was the 2nd coming of Jesus and exchange rates were better. Even if this sells the exact same amount of tickets as PotC4 OS, it will still see a moderate decrease.

That's really the biggest argument against it, there's not much escape from that. It might do better than one or two of them if they underperform and PotC overperforms so I'm out.

Good luck though, I like bold clubs like this.

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Looks like I'm out as well, interesting club though. I think there is a (small) chance that pirates has a furious 7 like increase overseas as it's something different from the blockbusters of the last few years.

 

But I have Ep8 topping the year OS followed by fast 8 and despicable me 3.

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17 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Not happening James. The last one was released when 3D was the 2nd coming of Jesus and exchange rates were better. Even if this sells the exact same amount of tickets as PotC4 OS, it will still see a moderate decrease.

I'm betting on a big China increase (200m+) to counteract that. POTC4 would've made 620-630m with today's ER. But the China gross was pretty small. Also, I don't expect such a strong decrease in tickets. If Disney markets Bloom's return right, a lot of people should return to the franchise.

 

On another note, I'm curious if I'll have any INs with this club.:lol: 

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Just now, FantasticBeasts said:

@Jason may be able to help, but I believe that the last one would adjust to a number lower than $850m OS, so you are actually suggesting an incease or a zero decrease.

That 620-630m figure above is from Jason. As I said, I am counting on a strong China/Asia increase, to maintain the franchise on the same level. 

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5 minutes ago, James said:

I'm betting on a big China increase (200m+) to counteract that. POTC4 would've made 620-630m with today's ER. But the China gross was pretty small. Also, I don't expect such a strong decrease in tickets. If Disney markets Bloom's return right, a lot of people should return to the franchise.

 

On another note, I'm curious if I'll have any INs with this club.:lol: 

Isn't that China number huge? Why do you believe it will make that much?

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No chance, its been stated many times before Pirates 4 overseas adjusts to only 600m OS, not sure how you think this will top Star wars. TFA did 400m more than Pirates 4 of ticket sales OS in todays dollars. 

 

 

Its tough to say now, but I think you are Down playing Star Wars yet again, Luke is the main hero. TFA did that money with just Ron and Hermione for comparison. VIII is bringing back Potter. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Jay Hollywood said:

No chance, its been stated many times before Pirates 4 overseas adjusts to only 600m OS, not sure how you think this will top Star wars. TFA did 400m more than Pirates 4 of ticket sales OS in todays dollars. 

 

 

Its tough to say now, but I thin you are Down playing Star Wars yet again, Luke is the main hero. TFA did that money with just Ron and Hermione for comparison. VIII is bringing back Potter. 

 

I get that. But I think you underestimate how much nostalgia was a factor when it came to TFA, especially OS. I don't see SW8 coming anywhere near 1b OS or even 900m. I think people should be happy with 700-750m which would be amazing in today's BO era. I also don't think the reception to TFA was that glowing. Add in the meh reception to RO when it comes to OS and the premise is not great. But we'll see. Either way, I doubt SW8 will defeat FF8 either way. The latter has the continuously expanding asian markets on it's side that could save it from a potential fall in other markets. SW8 is well established in Europe and will suffer drops there, some of them being huge (UK). And Asia will likely be half of what it was for TFA.

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