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1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

I've been hearing that ATJ will be gone for years. Yet there he is with GG win and BAFTA nom. He's time is coming. He's young. 

 

He's still in his 20s so that gives him some extra time before Hollywood can feel free to discard him for the next group of young white males seeking their big break (which are a dime a dozen in this industry, more so than any other group of performers). But yeah, his career path suggests he's more likely to become the next Ryan Phillippe (remember him?) than the next Ryan Gosling.

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6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

He's still in his 20s so that gives him some extra time before Hollywood can feel free to discard him for the next group of young white males seeking their big break (which are a dime a dozen in this industry, more so than any other group of performers). But yeah, his career path suggests he's more likely to become the next Ryan Phillippe (remember him?) than the next Ryan Gosling.

 

Well, you remember Ryan Phillippe so...:)

 

I don't think anyone expected ATJ to be the Next Gosling, though, but Ali is certainly not the Next Denzel. And Patel is even more likely to disappear, Oscar nom or not. Many Oscar nominees disappeared, it's no gguarantee of a long career. Same goes for winners. In fact, Supporting category, being lesser, is full of forgotten actors and actresses. It may be a good thing that ATJ didn't get a nom there. Garfield's supporting snub is now paying off with the Actor nom. Don't go for lesser category.

Edited by Valonqar
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I mean I'd say Nocturnal Animals put to rest any doubts that ATJ is talented and call me naive but talent of any kind is appreciated enough for him to stay around. Especially if he himself learned the right lesson from Godzilla and NA: stay away from bland blockbuster roles, go with character actor roles that have weirdness and personality to them. Legitimately hopeless types like Taylor Lautner are one thing, but seemingly bland handsome white dudes who get to actually prove themselves in the right role or two (Tatum, Pattinson, Hammer, Hedlund, Hoult, etc. and now ATJ who actually impressed people enough to get awards) are likely to keep getting those opportunities. 

Edited by Jake Gittes
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1 hour ago, Jake Gittes said:

I mean I'd say Nocturnal Animals put to rest any doubts that ATJ is talented and call me naive but talent of any kind is appreciated enough for him to stay around. Especially if he himself learned the right lesson from Godzilla and NA: stay away from bland blockbuster roles, go with character actor roles that have weirdness and personality to them. Legitimately hopeless types like Taylor Lautner are one thing, but seemingly bland handsome white dudes who get to actually prove themselves in the right role or two (Tatum, Pattinson, Hammer, Hedlund, Hoult, etc. and now ATJ who actually impressed people enough to get awards) are likely to keep getting those opportunities. 

 

All of this but especially bolded. Bland blockbusters make even some legit not bland actors bland. 

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I think La La Land has a 100% chance of winning 7 awards: Cinematography, Costume Design, Editing, Production Design, Score, Song, and Sound Mixing. I'd give its chances of winning Director around 80%, and Picture, Actress, and Screenplay a bit less. The only ones it has a good chance of losing are Actor and Sound Editing.

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an oscar record i didn't consider before but apparently it's true... at 467 minutes OJ: Made in America is the longest film ever nominated for an oscar! So even if it doesn't win (i think it will and should, but 13th has Ava and Netflix and is very relevant right now so watch out for it) it still has that! :lol: 

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467 minutes...um dang.

Don't really need to relive a guilty man being named innocent again though! (okay its not really reliving it-I just remember the oddness of it-rather not open up that can of beans now)

 

Still not as long as this 1925 film named Greed originally was apparently. (8 hours!)

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What are the frontrunners for the tech cats? I'm guessing either Star Wars or TJB for visuals, La La Land for sound and production design. While for sound editing-I could see either Arrival or Hacksaw winning (remember that La La Land is the only musical to ever be nominated in this category so there really is no indicator there if it can win or not). Costumes and makeup-not sure about right now. Cinematography *checks*-ummm La La Land I guess.

Edit: Forgot about film editing-I will just say La La Land for now. Though really I want some diversity when I'm predicting these!

(Would love to see Deepwater win sound editing, but doubtful that will happen)

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1 hour ago, Impact said:

What are the frontrunners for the tech cats? I'm guessing either Star Wars or TJB for visuals, La La Land for sound and production design. While for sound editing-I could see either Arrival or Hacksaw winning (remember that La La Land is the only musical to ever be nominated in this category so there really is no indicator there if it can win or not). Costumes and makeup-not sure about right now. Cinematography *checks*-ummm La La Land I guess.

Edit: Forgot about film editing-I will just say La La Land for now. Though really I want some diversity when I'm predicting these!

(Would love to see Deepwater win sound editing, but doubtful that will happen)

I'll be stunned if anything but The Jungle Book wins Visual Effects.

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2 hours ago, Impact said:

What are the frontrunners for the tech cats? I'm guessing either Star Wars or TJB for visuals, La La Land for sound and production design. While for sound editing-I could see either Arrival or Hacksaw winning (remember that La La Land is the only musical to ever be nominated in this category so there really is no indicator there if it can win or not). Costumes and makeup-not sure about right now. Cinematography *checks*-ummm La La Land I guess.

Edit: Forgot about film editing-I will just say La La Land for now. Though really I want some diversity when I'm predicting these!

(Would love to see Deepwater win sound editing, but doubtful that will happen)

 

La La Land is the frontrunner in all the tech categories it's nominated in except sound editing (I think it's 2nd behind Hacksaw). VFX will go to Jungle Book. Makeup is a crapshoot.

Edited by department store basement
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Awards I see La La Land winning.

 

Locked

Best Musical Score

Best Sound Mixing

Best Film Editing

Best Original Song

Art Direction

 

Confident

Best Actress

Best Original Screenplay

Best Director

Best Picture

 

50/50

Best Sound Editing-Hacksaw Ridge

Best Costumes-Jackie

 

Doubtful

Best Cinematography-Think it goes to Arrival

Best Actor-Will go to Casey Affleck

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I have La La Land winning 9-10. The ones I see it missing are Actor (will go to Affleck), Screenplay (will go to Manchester), one or both of the sound categories (will go to Hacksaw or Arrival), and obviously one of the song nominations.

 

A better question will be: what movies are going home empty handed this year? I'm going with: Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, and Lion. If La La Land takes both Sound categories then Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge will walk away with nothing too.

Edited by filmlover
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