Weekend Estimates: Lego Batman 55.6M, 50 Shades 46.7M, John Wick 2 30M

[The Panda]

1 hour ago, Telemachos said:

 

Maybe people assumed the Batman name would bring a bunch of additional Bat-fans?

 

I think that was the thought process, but it still doesn't make much sense.  It's a LEGO Spin-Off and a spin-off matching/increasing from its hit predecessor alone is a major feat.  Even Minions, a huge spin off, didn't really match DM2 (OW was only larger because it actually opened on a Friday).

 

I was personally thinking anything above 50m was solid territory for OW.

[WrathOfHan]

How do you guys think next weekend's releases will do?

 

Great Wall: 20M

Fist Fight: 15M

Wellness: 6M

 

I wouldn't be surprised if all of them were below 15M tbh.

[YM!]

I think we should expect higher numbers for Lego Batman, the North Shore cinema is flooded with families.

[sfran43]

1 hour ago, Ozymandias said:

Make Hugo Weaving the main villain in Chapter 3 

 

Continue The Matrix reunions

 

I'm so here for that!!

[grim22]

In a sold out IMAX screening now. This was empty when I bought the tickets, now there are barely 20 seats or so left. Lots of walk ups by the looks of it.

[The Panda]

Honestly though, just because we had a few smash animated hits last year doesn't mean 100m/300m was going to be the new standard for tentpole animations.

 

Zootopia was a WoM wonder off a large OW, SLOP had a massive marketing campaign, a broadly appealing and original concept and limited competition to follow, and FD was a long-awaited sequel to Pixar's biggest hit.

 

LEGO Batman is a spin-off from a solid animated hit and it's fixed to do solid numbers.  Looks like my 60m/200m range predict from the beginning of the year wasn't underestimating it.

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Honestly though, just because we had a few smash animated hits last year doesn't mean 100m/300m was going to be the new standard for tentpole animations.

 

Zootopia was a WoM wonder off a large OW, SLOP had a massive marketing campaign, a broadly appealing and original concept and limited competition to follow, and FD was a long-awaited sequel to Pixar's biggest hit.

 

LEGO Batman is a spin-off from a solid animated hit and it's fixed to do solid numbers.  Looks like my 60m/200m range predict from the beginning of the year wasn't underestimating it.

 

Not to mention WDAS, Pixar and Illumination are pretty much established whereas Warner Animation Group even with the success of The Lego Movie is not at that level yet, it's doing numbers which most other studios like Blue Sky, Sony and Paramount would be more than happy with for an animated film and given its budget, its going to make a healthy return for Warner Bros

[CJohn]

13 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

How do you guys think next weekend's releases will do?

 

Great Wall: 20M

Fist Fight: 15M

Wellness: 6M

 

I wouldn't be surprised if all of them were below 15M tbh.

I think The Great Wall can do 25-26M 4 day weekend. Fist Fight seems to have a good enough concept to get 22-24M. A Cure for Wellness got two SB spots and I am still unsure it cracks the 7M for the 4 day weekend.

[YM!]

The 7:30 showing for Lego Batman is sold out here and 10:00 is running out too. 

[bcf26]

Am I the only one who noticed that Batman's voice in the The Lego Batman Movie sounds like the killer from the Scream movies and tv series?

[aabattery]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

How do you guys think next weekend's releases will do?

 

Great Wall: 20M

Fist Fight: 15M

Wellness: 6M

 

I wouldn't be surprised if all of them were below 15M tbh.

 

I think Great Wall will be sub-20 for sure (sorry Pink).

 

Other two seem about right. Wellness needed good reviews to be a success.

[Blankments]

3 hours ago, cannastop said:

 

 

 

Oh man, that's really something.

 

"Leaving money on the table"

 

You know this particular cartoon has a budget of about half of Zootopia's, right?

The budget of Zootopia has nothing to do with the money LEGO Batman has potential of making.

 

3 hours ago, jandrew said:

WB broke the mold and tried to appeal with the older crowd, such as with the (pretty clever) Chevy ads. There was also a good amount of marketing on Spotify. There was somewhere else I saw Lego Bat promotions that wasn't typical, but I don't remember. Yes they started late, but who cares? When it comes to marketing, it's about quality, not quantity. That's why people get sick of commercials: channels play them too damn much. WB got the point across that this comes out February 10 and that's all that matters. 

 

And it doesnt matter if people in their 20's like Lego, we don't play with them? I don't know anyone who does... And it's two different mediums. 20 somethings love H&M, Starbucks, and Instagram, doesn't mean where about to go rush out to H&M: The Movie or Instagram 3D.

 

Bottom line is this is still February, and not only that, but these "20 year olds" who you think should be showing up, have John Wick AND 50 Shades to choose from. I myself have chosen John Wick over Lego Bat. Basically, you were just expecting too much. It's understandable, but putting the blame on WB and their marketing team isn't fair. Your expectations were too high.

 

People don't play with LEGO LEGO, but they do play LEGO video games/grew up playing with them. The humor in the games is in spades in these films.

 

And I'll admit that I didn't expect John Wick to be as big a player as it apparently is. I still disagree with you but I'm not really in the mood to argue about this anymore

[Blankments]

2 hours ago, JonathanLB said:

It's so funny how a movie can somehow do "ok" with previews even though around here like it couldn't have been any worse or dismal. 

 

First of all, LEGO Batman played at 5, 7:20 and 10:10 in IMAX and they are handing out those special tickets for seeing it. We went to the 10:10 and got tickets 13 and 14 out of 1,000. I shit you not. There were FOUR people in the theater including my girlfriend and I. In the entire 8 week run of TFA in IMAX I never saw fewer than 10 people in the theater and rarely below 20. Rogue One's final IMAX showing had 4 people too which somehow is as good as LEGO Batman could manage lol. So wow in 3 IMAX showings it moved 16 tickets. I think that's by far the most pathetic thing I've ever heard from previews. This is why I won't call anything short of $10M previews "good" because clearly $2.2M doesn't mean anyone actually bothered showing up to most theaters for it. I guess this weekend will be better. The movie itself rocked and I really enjoyed it.

 

Can't wait to see John Wick 2, probably Saturday night!

the movie's primary market is asleep long before 10:10

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, Blankments said:

The budget of Zootopia has nothing to do with the money LEGO Batman has potential of making.

It doesn't, that's true.

 

Still absurd to say there's money left on the table.

[elcaballero]

Off to see John Wick. My showing is sold out, but it's in one of the smaller auditoriums. 50 Shades is sold out the rest of the night. 

[The Panda]

3 minutes ago, cannastop said:

It doesn't, that's true.

 

Still absurd to say there's money left on the table.

 

Youre talking to the guy who was about as nuts for the LEGO Movie as you were for Zootopia.

[franfar]

6 minutes ago, Blankments said:

The budget of Zootopia has nothing to do with the money LEGO Batman has potential of making.

 

 

....but what about profit margins?

[zackzack]

21 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I think The Great Wall can do 25-26M 4 day weekend. Fist Fight seems to have a good enough concept to get 22-24M. A Cure for Wellness got two SB spots and I am still unsure it cracks the 7M for the 4 day weekend.

 

Jesus: in a few more weeks we have Logan, Kong & The Beast plus a Baby. Feb-March feels like Summer already.

[Jandrew]

11 minutes ago, Blankments said:

People don't play with LEGO LEGO, but they do play LEGO video games/grew up playing with them. The humor in the games is in spades in these films.

 

And I'll admit that I didn't expect John Wick to be as big a player as it apparently is. I still disagree with you but I'm not really in the mood to argue about this anymore

 

Doesnt matter, but okay, dude. Just dont blame the marketing. WBs team did a great job, you just wanted too much.

[The Panda]

Just now, franfar said:

....but what about profit margins?

 

Not to mention, if your movie has a lower production budget, there isn't as much pressure to bring out all of the advertising guns for it, as the bar to clear is much lower.

 

The LEGO Movie was niche but it worked, however the gimmick of it isn't as clever or eye-catching to audiences now.  Add that to the fact this is a spin-off, and that Batman was already a major part and highly advertised part of the main film, there's really nothing LEGO Batman has over the original in appeal.

 

It'd be like saying Minions should have increased from DM2 because Minions are large brand name characters with massive appeal.  That's true, but that appeal was there whether they were the star characters of the movie or the side ones.  Same for LEGO Batman.  He was a popular side-character in the LEGO Movie, but it wasn't like the appeal of Batman being in the movie was missing from the LEGO Movie and suddenly present in LEGO Batman.

 

A 50m/200m run being the floor for LEGO Batman is good, and nothing to be upset about.