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Alli

WEEKEND THREAD! FRI #s: Lego: 8M: 50SD: 6.6M: GW: 5.8: JW2: 4.1 (pg 8)

By Alli, in Numbers and Data

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John Marston Global Phenomenon

John Marston

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14 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Lego Batman is dipping 34% in its second weekend at 4,088 theaters with $35.3M over three and an estimated $46.5M over four.  Cume by Monday is expected to stand at $111.1M. The Chris McKay movie easily wins Friday night tonight at $8M. Fifty Shades Darker, thanks to playing into the Presidents’ Day weekend, is only expected to shed an amazing -52% with $22.5M over FSS, $26.1M over FSSM and a running cume by EOD Monday of $94.8M. Uni all along (need to give them credit) felt that this was exactly how this movie was going to play out: It was never going to weather the -74% drop of its predecessor. As we say coming out of its Valentine’s Day $11M climax — fans love what they see here.

Even though Lionsgate/Summit’s John Wick: Chapter 2 is ranked fourth fourth behind Uni/Legendary’s The Great Wall, the Keanu Reeves movie is also reaping the rewards of playing into the four-day holiday loaded with a great word of mouth and totally excellent reviews. The sequel’s projected -52% ease in its second weekend isn’t that far from Kingsman: The Secret Service, Fifty Shades’ male counterprogrammer two years ago. That movie declined -49% in its second weekend. John Wick 2‘s will lift an estimated $14.7M over three and $17.4M over four for a near $60M 11-day haul.

Of the new stuff, Uni’s The Great Wall, propped by 3D and Imax surcharges, is expected to win Friday with $5.5M, a $15.6M FSS and $18.2M four-day. On a three-day basis it’s off 35% from Warcraft‘s $24.1M opening, and again that can be attributed to lack of a franchise IP property behind this film, and the fact that it’s not playing in the summer. Still, it’s a disastrous opening for a film stateside that carries a $150M production cost and estimated $110M-$120M P&A. That said, the distributors knew the U.S. wasn’t the primary audience for this Zhang Yimou spectacle; that’s why they opened it in China and certain territories abroad first where it’s amassed $225M. The film was tarnished the minute it dropped its first trailer last year. with some people in the media crying foul over the pic’s whitewashing. But that’s not why the movie is failing here: it’s the bad reviews at 35% rotten.

Remember that 1987 Universal comedy Three O’Clock High? It was about a nerd’s high school battle with a bully on the school yard. That movie didn’t work back then at the box office ($3.7M) and neither is Warner Bros/New Line’s Fist Fight 30 years later with the R-rated comedy is poised to make $3.9M today, $11.1M over three and $13.1M over four. New Line kept this comedy at a low budget, sources tell us an estimated $25M with a low $30M P&A spend. Ice Cube was paid upfront. More than Charlie Day being more of a second banana than leading man, the movie’s problem — just like Three O’Clock High‘s — is that it’s so low stakes in its teacher playground fight that it’s not enough to make people get off their couch and drive to the multiplex, and if they want to watch this type of bawdy comedy, they can take in HBO’s Danny McBride series Vice Principals on demand. Reviewers are the biggest bully at 34% rotten.

 

 

If that is true, that would be a shockingly good hold for 50 Shades

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MrPink Global Phenomenon

MrPink

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1 hour ago, Telemachos said:

So JW2 is gonna fall 50%(3-day to 3-day) even with a holiday Monday to soften the Sunday numbers. 

 

I might've been wrong about the size of its opening, but I think this definitely points to a fanboy rush to see it. The numbers also indicate a limited audience no matter how stellar the reviews. 

 

On the other hand, this looks good for Lego Batman over 170 million. :redcapes:

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YM! Global Phenomenon

YM!

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1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

On the other hand, this looks good for Lego Batman over 170 million. :redcapes:

Maybe even $200M, if it continues 30%-35% drops until BaTB it'd be at the $180M range.

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