Friday Numbers (The Vow: 15.4M; Safe House: 13.8M; Star Wars 3D: 8.7M; Journey 2: 6.6M)

[fmpro]

What's going to make 100 million from this weekend?

The Vow and Safe House will make it.SW is frontloaded so that wont..The interesting one is J2... Will it perform like the first with killer legs??? My guess is no..

[Noctis]

VERY nice increase for Journey 2. It should have a $20m+ weekend.

[fmpro]

VERY nice increase for Journey 2. It should have a $20m+ weekend.

Should clear it with ease.. 25 mill is not out of the question either

[DavidBrennan]

TPM downgraded yet AGAIN, this time to 23m for the weekend, and a likely #4 finish behind Journey 2 and probably a total of well below 50m."FANTASTIC!!!" shouts the internet community, supposedly full of "haters".

[Chrestomanci]

SW down to $9M. It seems afternoon shows were packed more than normal due to the upfront demand.While the situation seems completely opposite for Journey 2. Afternoon shows must be empty while evening ones picked up pace.

I'm sure that explanation is probably the right one, but there is another possibility that has me wondering . . . Nikki actually increased her estimate at around 9:30 or 10 PM Eastern, 6:30 or 7 PM Pacific, before downgrading it much later in the evening. That suggests to me that late afternoon and early evening business was probably pretty good and it was only the later evening shows that didn't do so well. Fanboys rushing to see it could account for it, but that would also be the pattern if it was skewing much more kiddie than fanboy. This movie has alot of appeal for families with young children and those families are not going to go to a late evening show after a long day of work and school; if they couldn't get to it in the afternoon or early evening, they'd probably wait for the weekend. So I guess tomorrow will tell the tale -- a decrease will indicate fanboy frontloading, a fairly significant increase would indicate that it's drawing more kids and families than fanboys and a small increase would probably indicate some kind of balance between the two.Of course, I have no idea why Journey 2 should apparently have more adult appeal than TPM. Regardless of what TPM is doing and why, I really can't begin to guess why Journey 2 should do so well with the late night crowds after a weak afternoon and early evening. Edited February 11, 2012 by Chrestomanci

[pieman]

so Safe House can reach 100?

Edited February 11, 2012 by pieman

[DavidBrennan]

I'm sure that explanation is probably the right one, but there is another possibility that has me wondering . . . Nikki actually increased her estimate at around 9:30 or 10 PM Eastern, 6:30 or 7 PM Pacific, before downgrading it much later in the evening. That suggests to me that late afternoon and early evening business was probably pretty good and it was only the later evening shows that didn't do so well. Fanboys rushing to see it could account for it, but that would also be the pattern if it was skewing much more kiddie than fanboy. This movie has alot of appeal for families with young children and those families are not going to go to a late evening show after a long day of work and school; if they couldn't get to it in the afternoon or early evening, they'd probably wait for the weekend. So I guess tomorrow will tell the tale -- a decrease will indicate fanboy frontloading, a fairly significant increase would indicate that it's drawing more kids and families than fanboys and a small increase would probably indicate some kind of balance between the two.Of course, I have no idea why Journey 2 should apparently have more adult appeal than TPM. Regardless of what TPM is doing and why, I really can't begin to guess why Journey 2 should do so well with the late night crowds after a weak afternoon and early evening.

Dude....let it go. It's dead. 50m cume, tops. (The fact that now all the posters are awkwardly trying to rationalize it are the very reason that I wrote THIS POST a few hours back when the "Screw the [non-existent] Haters!" enthusiasm was cresting.)Here's a hilarious synopsis of a guy going to see the midnight in NYC:http://news.moviefone.com/mike-ryan/midnight-showing-the-phantom-menace_b_1268745.html

[fmpro]

so Safe House can reach 100?

Yep

[pieman]

lock?

[fmpro]

lock?

With PD comming up i would say yes

[Chrestomanci]

Dude....let it go. It's dead. 50m cume, tops. (The fact that now all the posters are awkwardly trying to rationalize it are the very reason that I wrote THIS POST a few hours back when the "Screw the [non-existent] Haters!" enthusiasm was cresting.)

Here's a hilarious synopsis of a guy going to see the midnight in NYC:

http://news.moviefon..._b_1268745.html

You have made your opinion abundantly clear all night. That does not mean that no one else has the right to express an opinion and I didn't even really do that, just suggested another possibility which still seems to fit the given evidence. You think that this is being fueled by fanboys and I certainly agree that that is a possibility or even a probability, and said as much. However, I've also known enough little kids who are into Star Wars and enough adults who are huge fans but think the prequels stink to question whether another explanation might be possible.

You've been complaining that the people who were overpredicting it won't acknowledge that they were wrong if it fails to meet their expectations -- I acknowledge right there in my post that if it decreases on Saturday that will be because the fanboys rushed to see it. What I haven't seen all night, even when the estimates were increasing, was you acknowledging any possibility that you could be wrong. I think that you're the one who needs to "let it go;" whether or not you turn out to be right, this movie failing and proving everybody who was pleased by the numbers tonight wrong seems to be way too important to you.

Edited February 11, 2012 by Chrestomanci

[DavidBrennan]

Hey, if it goes past 50m or even touches 25m this weekend - which is setting the bar VERY low relative to what everybody else was yelling about earlier - I'll acknowledge that I was wrong and/or spoke too harshly.I just don't anticipate either scenario happening, and wish that people wouldn't be so lazy-minded and cave in to the hive mind mentality about things. That's really what bothers me the most, and that's what I saw happening hear (and other sites) earlier.

[Krissykins]

Excellent for The Vow! and Safe House overperforming!!ok for Journey.

[egoplant]

Another good weekend for 2012. Hope box office doesn't die as quickly as I think it will.

[fmpro]

Why would it?^^

[pieman]

How much will The Vow make on Valentine's Day?

[Crys]

WowGreat weekend all around.The Vow will win the weekend but great numbers for SH.

[cookie]

You know I halfway expected Saturday numbers when I got here. Stupid Nikki screwing with my perception of time.

Edited February 11, 2012 by C00k13

[efialtes76]

New Update

1. The Vow (Screen Gems/Sony) NEW [2,958 Theaters]

Est Friday $15.5M, Est Weekend $39M

2. Safe House (Universal) NEW [3,119 Theaters]

Est Friday $15M, Est Weekend $38M

3. Star Wars 3D: Phantom Menace (LucasFilm/Fox) NEW [2,655 Theaters]

Est Friday $8.5M, Est Weekend $22M

4. Journey 2: Mysterious Island 3D (Warner Bros) NEW [3,470 Theaters]

Est Friday $6.5M, Est Weekend $21M

5. Chronicle (Fox) Week 2 [2,908 Theater]

Est Friday $3.5M (-59%), Est Weekend $11M, Est Cume $39M

6. The Woman In Black (CBS Films) Week 2 [2,856 Theaters]

Est Friday $3.4M (-58%), Est Weekend $11M, Est Cume $36.1M

7. The Grey (Open Road) Week 3 [2,801 Theaters]

Est Friday $1.3M, Est Weekend $4.5M, Est Cume $42.4M

8. Big Miracle (Working Title/Universal) Week 2 [2,133 Theaters]

Est Friday $952K (-59%), Est Weekend $3.5M, Est Cume $13M

9. The Descendants (Fox Searchlight) Week 13 [1,581 Theaters]

Est Friday $900K, Est Weekend $3.5M, Est Cume $70.7M

10. One For The Money (Lionsgate) Week 3 [2,056 Theaters]

Est Friday $725K, Est Weekend $2.2M, Est Cume $23.6M

[Hatebox]

Safe House's trailer was awful so the tv spots must have saved it. Good timing for Reynolds, he badly needed a hit. Clearly it was Denzel people were going to see though.