Mar 3-5 Weekend - Official Estimates - Logan 85.3m, Get Out 26.1m, Shack 16.1m, LEGO Bat 16.5, BIF 4.9m

[Dementeleus]

7 minutes ago, boxofficeth said:

No offence but even unadjusted DP OW (132.43) is bigger than adjusted Reloaded OW (131.65).

 

I do agree that DP2 will be huge but doubtful if it will match the first.

 

Splitting hairs, it gets a bit complicated because WB separated the late-evening grosses for RELOADED while they were folded into DP's OW (as is normal now).

[cmbbox2390]

10 minutes ago, davincicode1 said:

Could someone provide me a link to the the 28 Million report (regarding Get Out)?

There's no report yet but EmpireCity gave an update a few pages back that Get Out did $8.7m Sunday which is about $2m more than estimated.

[Eevin]

19 minutes ago, boxofficeth said:

No offence but even unadjusted DP OW (132.43) is bigger than adjusted Reloaded OW (131.65).

 

I do agree that DP2 will be huge but doubtful if it will match the first.

Being fair to Reloaded, it did open on a Thursday which burnt off a lot of demand. Adjusted, its first three days are ~$148m ($155m+ if you count the Wednesday midnight screenings). That's not to discount Deadpool in any way, though. I think Deadpool 2 has the potential to come a lot closer to the first than people are saying, but the first was such a lightning-in-a-bottle phenomenon.

[filmscholar]

2 hours ago, boxofficeth said:

No offence but even unadjusted DP OW (132.43) is bigger than adjusted Reloaded OW (131.65).

 

I do agree that DP2 will be huge but doubtful if it will match the first.

 

 

Cool, I always thought it was about 133 but I knew is over 130 for sure adjusted but that's less than 1 million lead.   My point still stands, lighting in a bottle.  We don't see R-rated films put up numbers like OW that normally.  I think a summer release for DP2 could do serious damage though I think they settled for a March release.   DP and Reloaded are 12 years apart too.  So again "Logan" numbers were good and because it didn't hit DP OW doesn't mean it was a step down.  Plus I felt "Logan" was much more darker film where as "DP" was obviously more comedic.  

Edited March 6, 2017 by filmscholar

[Eevin]

Also, Get Out probably won't do $200m+, but it will be closer to $200m than $100m. Split's likely headed to a final gross of around $140m. If it plays like Split did off of its second weekend (factoring in the $8.7m / $28.3m number), Get Out makes $147m. It held substantially better than Split this weekend, though, which makes $150m+ seem like a sure thing. I wouldn't rule out it surpassing La La Land and Hidden Figures. Absolutely astounding, especially when you consider that Split, Sixth Sense and The Ring were all PG-13.

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, EmpireCity said:

$24m

$8.7m

 

A 12% drop from last Sunday (opening weekend).

 

 

Against an $87m R rated superhero film.

 

Get Out will be talked about for years! 

[MCKillswitch123]

Yeah, I think that at this point, GO should target the other black-centric big events like Compton and Figures, as Split seems like a done deal. Scariest thing is that Logan opened to 88M and barely phased it, imagine if there was no big movie opening this weekend. Unless BATB opens to 200M+ or something, GO will be the biggest BO event of March. Goddamn.

[grey ghost]

People are underestimating Deadpool 2's marketing?

 

Here we go again!

[WrathOfHan]

Deadpool's clip had more trailer views in a single day than GOTG's latest trailer in 4.

[MCKillswitch123]

The Deadpool 2 teaser has made people I know that don't even care about comic book movies buzz big. That movie was a cultural phenomenom, and the hype is still real. And I think casting David Harbour as Cable will push it even bigger due to the Stranger Things goodwill for Harbour effect. The movie is doing big numbers, for sure. How big? I dunno. I'm not counting on over the OG for now, but if the movie is utterly fantastic, it could happen.

[mahnamahna]

Spoiler

Get Out

$33.4 million

$28.5 million ($78.2 million)

$22.3 million ($118.5 million)

$14.8 million ($147.4 million)

$12.1 million ($170.7 million)

$8.7 million ($186.5 million)

$6.9 million ($197.6 million)

$3.7 million ($203.3 million)

$1.9 million ($206.1 million)

$1.0 million ($207.6 million)

$210.2 million DOM

 

[Dementeleus]

42 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

And I think casting David Harbour as Cable will push it even bigger due to the Stranger Things goodwill for Harbour effect.

 

I like Harbour a lot, but I think there's a huge amount of crossover between fans of DEADPOOL and fans of STRANGER THINGS. I don't think he expands the audience much on his own.

[baumer]

Deadpool is going to open with more than 170 million.  It's going over 500.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

Deadpool is going to open with more than 170 million.  It's going over 500.

I believe in the former, but not the latter.

[Orestes]

Will the Harbour effect be bigger than the Copley effect?

[baumer]

3 hours ago, cannastop said:

I believe in the former, but not the latter.

 

It just needs a 3X.  

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, baumer said:

 

It just needs a 3X.  

Why would the sequel have a better multi than the original?

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

It just needs a 3X.  

Why do you think Deadpool 2 will have a better multiplier than Captain America 3?

[That One Girl]

9 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

It just needs a 3X.  

 

Why do you think Deadpool 2 will have better legs than Batman v. Superman?

[Nova]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

People are underestimating Deadpool 2's marketing?

 

Here we go again!

 

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Deadpool's clip had more trailer views in a single day than GOTG's latest trailer in 4.

Just a day ago I said it would open near the original but after seeing how big that clip got, I'm changing my mind. It's gonna open really big. It's legs will depend on the quality of the film but I'm now convinced its OW is going to be closer to $150M+ than I thought it would be.