The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

7:00 Thor stayed at 101/124 while the 7:15 is finishing with 33/63. The first show only had the very first row, wheelchairs, and a couple of stray seats up front not sell.

[WrathOfHan]

7:30 3D: 55/78

 

These sales. OH GOD THESE SALES. It has been far too long since a blockbuster was cleaning house in theaters.

 

[Poseidon]

1 hour ago, aabattery said:

 

 

 

Can't say I'll miss it.

I miss good 3D. But the short-sighted studios ruined it with horrible quality and the theaters with bad lightning.

It was fun, and it would still be fun, if only movies like Avatar and Gravity came out and only a couple of them a year. 

So money good things have been killed by greed, though. 

[grim22]

Deep Wang Update:

- Thor finishes a hair below SMH. About 6.1M on the converted scale. SMH escalation on Wednesday and Thursday was very very strong.

 

 

On 10/28/2017 at 2:33 PM, grim22 said:

Current JL sales is about 58% of current Thor sales.

 

We probably won’t get another update till Monday or Tuesday evening. At that point I can probably comp Thor to all recent movies.

 

Civil War had the highest presales among CBMs. Let’s use it as a baseline and say it had 10M to make things easier for baselining. If Civil War final presales was 10M, then:

- BvS was 9.2M

- Guardians 2 was 8.3M

- Suicide Squad was 7.2M

- SMH was 6.4M

- WW was 5.6M

- Deadpool was 4.5M

 

[Barnack]

12 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

I miss good 3D. But the short-sighted studios ruined it with horrible quality and the theaters with bad lightning.

It was fun, and it would still be fun, if only movies like Avatar and Gravity came out and only a couple of them a year. 

So money good things have been killed by greed, though. 

A bit like all the previous 3D era, the big 3d movie craze of 1950s didn't had a long life either, even shorter just 3/4 year's or so.

 

The next time (could be as soon as Avatar 2) the technology will be again much better and less dark, less slow, more 3d and less just a couple of different plane with some object in 3d from time to time, etc...

[WrathOfHan]

8:00 Thor 3D is finishing with 56/113 here. 

[ZeeSoh]

On 10/29/2017 at 3:59 AM, ZeeSoh said:

 

Wow this is remarkable the correlation between presales and opening weekend. I am assuming the presales numbers (or rather correlation) are of final numbers. If so then the ratio of Presales of the following movie compared to CW lines up very very closely to their opening weekends compared to CW.

 

The percentages below are of that movie OW relative to CW OW

 

BvS - 9.2 - 92.7%

Guardians 2 - 8.3 - 81.8%

Suicide Squad - 7.2 - 74.7%

SMH - 6.5 - 65.3%

WW - 5.6 - 57.7%

 

The only outlier from the above list is Deadpool. It had 4.5m sales to 10m of CW but its opening weekend was 74% of CW.

 

I know pre-sales numbers are not always considered an accurate indication of OW here. But this shows that for at least most SH movies the presales numbers are a pretty good indication of OW. It would be interesting to see if Thor 3 and JL follows this trend or if they will be more along the lines of Deadpool

 

7 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Deep Wang Update:

- Thor finishes a hair below SMH. About 6.1M on the converted scale. SMH escalation on Wednesday and Thursday was very very strong.

 

 

 

If it matches perfectly with CW ratio it should open around 109m based on final presales. Using the slight discrepancy that the above movies had and applying it to Thor 3 would give an OW of 107-113. Let's see if it sticks closely to the correlation we've seen so far or is more of an outlier in the line of Deadpool. I am still sticking with 110 right now

[MrGlass2]

12 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Deep Wang Update:

- Thor finishes a hair below SMH. About 6.1M on the converted scale. SMH escalation on Wednesday and Thursday was very very strong.

Deep Wang's converted scale looks like a pretty good way to predict OW - with the notable exception of Deadpool.

[Barnack]

10 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Deep Wang's converted scale looks like a pretty good way to predict OW - with the notable exception of Deadpool.

Yup it gave also a bit of a feeling how much the movie reached outside the usual comic book audience (that massively pre-buy ticket like young adult at is peak or Star wars I would imagine versus others comedy audience) and show how "normal" is was for some tracker to miss that one by a lot.

[WrathOfHan]

Holy fuck, Bad Moms's audience score is down to 56%  WOM is spreading FAST on this thing. 

[WrathOfHan]

Final totals for Thor tonight:

 

7:00: 101/124

7:15: 33/63

7:30 3D: 55/78

8:00 3D: 56/113

8:30: 70/78

8:35 3D: 22/69

Total: 337/526

 

Taking out the showtimes that were added a couple hours ago, the total is 282/394. By comparison, It did 267/358 with arguably more of a rush thanks to Hurricane Irma fucking up the weekend.

[raegr]

55 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Deep Wang Update:

- Thor finishes a hair below SMH. About 6.1M on the converted scale. SMH escalation on Wednesday and Thursday was very very strong.

 

 

 

Exactly what I've been saying for months. Thor opens between WW and Spider-Man Homecoming. Water...wet. 

[WrathOfHan]

How tomorrow looks at my theater:

 

Spoiler

Thor:

 

10:00: 39/124

10:30: 7/78

11:00 3D: 11/78

11:30: 3D: 13/113

12:15: 4/78

1:00: 23/124

1:30: 2/78

2:00 3D: 2/78

2:30 3D: 0/113

4:00: 20/124

4:30 3D: 0/78

5:00 3D: 2/78

5:30 3D: 16/113

6:15: 22/78

7:00: 83/124

7:30 3D: 16/78

8:00 3D: 0/78

8:30 3D: 11/113

9:15: 19/78

10:00: 10/124

10:30 3D: 0/78

 

Bad Moms:

 

10:15: 6/78

12:45: 2/78

3:15: 4/78

5:45: 0/78

7:10: 10/69

8:15: 44/78

9:45: 0/69

10:45: 0/78

 

Madea:

 

11:35: 3/78

2:05: 0/78

4:35: 0/78

7:05: 0/78

9:35: 0/78

 

Jigsaw:

 

10:25: 0/78

12:50: 0/78

3:10: 0/78

5:30: 0/78

7:50: 0/78

10:20: 2/78

 

TYFYS:

 

11:15: 0/60

2:00: 0/60

4:40: 2/60

7:20: 0/60

10:00: 0/60

 

Thor: 300/2,008

Bad Moms: 66/606

Madea: 3/390

Jigsaw: 2/468

TYFYS: 2/300

Suburbicon, OTB, Geostorm, HDD, and The Foreigner have sold nothing.

 

Thor is 200% of It with over double the capacity and 550% of Kingsman (can't find any quick CBM comparisons without a lot of digging   ).

Bad Moms is one ticket ahead of Madea and 225% of MBU (can't find Girls Trip easily), but given that two-thirds of the sales are for the main night show, I don't think it's particularly strong. For comparison, half of Madea's sales were for the main night show.

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, grim22 said:

Deep Wang Update:

- Thor finishes a hair below SMH. About 6.1M on the converted scale. SMH escalation on Wednesday and Thursday was very very strong.

 

 

 

 

This is great. So around 10% higher than Wondy.  110m OW is the target. 

[WrathOfHan]

> NEW RELEASES
1	-	Thor: Ragnarok	Buena Vista	4,080	-	-	1
2	1	A Bad Moms Christmas	STX Entertainment	3,615	-	-	1
18	-	LBJ	Electric Entertainment	659	-	-	1
31	-	ITTEFAQ	Yash Raj	67	-	-	1
49	-	Lady Bird	A24	4	-	-	1
50	-	Last Flag Flying	Lionsgate	4	-	-	1
52	-	Frank Serpico	IFC	1	-	-	1
> EXPANDING
7	10	Thank You for Your Service (2017)	Universal	2,084	+30	+1.5%	2
22	26	Goodbye Christopher Robin	Fox Searchlight	262	+49	+23.0%	4
24	36	The Florida Project	A24	189	+44	+30.3%	5
27	54	Wonderstruck	Roadside Attractions	121	+79	+188.1%	3
28	46	Leap!	Weinstein Company	110	+48	+77.4%	11
29	44	Wind River	Weinstein Company	105	+25	+31.3%	14
30	58	The Killing of a Sacred Deer	A24	86	+53	+160.6%	3
44	87	Novitiate	Sony Classics	16	+13	+433.3%	2
48	85	Dealt	IFC	6	+3	+100.0%	3
> NO CHANGE
3	4	Jigsaw	Lionsgate	2,941	-	-	2
9	11	Suburbicon	Paramount	2,046	-	-	2
> DECLINING
4	3	Geostorm	Warner Bros.	2,666	-580	-17.9%	3
5	9	Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween	Lionsgate	2,202	-186	-7.8%	3
6	2	Happy Death Day	Universal	2,180	-1,355	-38.3%	4
8	5	Only The Brave	Sony / Columbia	2,073	-504	-19.6%	3
10	8	Blade Runner 2049	Warner Bros.	1,464	-957	-39.5%	5
11	7	The Foreigner	STX Entertainment	1,456	-1,049	-41.9%	4
12	17	The LEGO Ninjago Movie	Warner Bros.	835	-639	-43.4%	7
13	16	Kingsman: The Golden Circle	Fox	802	-687	-46.1%	7
14	19	Victoria and Abdul	Focus Features	793	-251	-24.0%	7
15	14	My Little Pony: The Movie	Lionsgate	785	-897	-53.3%	5
16	12	The Mountain Between Us	Fox	716	-1,313	-64.7%	5
17	15	American Made	Universal	663	-895	-57.4%	6
19	18	Same Kind of Different as Me	Pure Flix	524	-714	-57.7%	3
20	13	The Snowman	Universal	521	-1,294	-71.3%	3
21	20	Marshall	Open Road Films	504	-317	-38.6%	4
23	27	Despicable Me 3	Universal	192	-18	-8.6%	19
25	32	American Assassin	Lionsgate	159	-16	-9.1%	8
26	23	Battle of the Sexes	Fox Searchlight	158	-133	-45.7%	7

 

Huuuuuuge drops for Snowman, HDD, MBU, and Foreigner. BR, MLP, and AM aren't anything to scoff at either

So much for those Florida Project and Sacred Deer expansions

Edited November 3, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

33 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

> NEW RELEASES
1	-	Thor: Ragnarok	Buena Vista	4,080	-	-	1
2	1	A Bad Moms Christmas	STX Entertainment	3,615	-	-	1
18	-	LBJ	Electric Entertainment	659	-	-	1
31	-	ITTEFAQ	Yash Raj	67	-	-	1
49	-	Lady Bird	A24	4	-	-	1
50	-	Last Flag Flying	Lionsgate	4	-	-	1
52	-	Frank Serpico	IFC	1	-	-	1
> EXPANDING
7	10	Thank You for Your Service (2017)	Universal	2,084	+30	+1.5%	2
22	26	Goodbye Christopher Robin	Fox Searchlight	262	+49	+23.0%	4
24	36	The Florida Project	A24	189	+44	+30.3%	5
27	54	Wonderstruck	Roadside Attractions	121	+79	+188.1%	3
28	46	Leap!	Weinstein Company	110	+48	+77.4%	11
29	44	Wind River	Weinstein Company	105	+25	+31.3%	14
30	58	The Killing of a Sacred Deer	A24	86	+53	+160.6%	3
44	87	Novitiate	Sony Classics	16	+13	+433.3%	2
48	85	Dealt	IFC	6	+3	+100.0%	3
> NO CHANGE
3	4	Jigsaw	Lionsgate	2,941	-	-	2
9	11	Suburbicon	Paramount	2,046	-	-	2
> DECLINING
4	3	Geostorm	Warner Bros.	2,666	-580	-17.9%	3
5	9	Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween	Lionsgate	2,202	-186	-7.8%	3
6	2	Happy Death Day	Universal	2,180	-1,355	-38.3%	4
8	5	Only The Brave	Sony / Columbia	2,073	-504	-19.6%	3
10	8	Blade Runner 2049	Warner Bros.	1,464	-957	-39.5%	5
11	7	The Foreigner	STX Entertainment	1,456	-1,049	-41.9%	4
12	17	The LEGO Ninjago Movie	Warner Bros.	835	-639	-43.4%	7
13	16	Kingsman: The Golden Circle	Fox	802	-687	-46.1%	7
14	19	Victoria and Abdul	Focus Features	793	-251	-24.0%	7
15	14	My Little Pony: The Movie	Lionsgate	785	-897	-53.3%	5
16	12	The Mountain Between Us	Fox	716	-1,313	-64.7%	5
17	15	American Made	Universal	663	-895	-57.4%	6
19	18	Same Kind of Different as Me	Pure Flix	524	-714	-57.7%	3
20	13	The Snowman	Universal	521	-1,294	-71.3%	3
21	20	Marshall	Open Road Films	504	-317	-38.6%	4
23	27	Despicable Me 3	Universal	192	-18	-8.6%	19
25	32	American Assassin	Lionsgate	159	-16	-9.1%	8
26	23	Battle of the Sexes	Fox Searchlight	158	-133	-45.7%	7

 

Huuuuuuge drops for Snowman, HDD, MBU, and Foreigner. BR, MLP, and AM aren't anything to scoff at either

So much for those Florida Project and Sacred Deer expansions

Florida Project is probably gonna take the Room approach and wait until Oscar nominations to get a big expansion. If those don't pan out, it'll just fade away quietly.

 

Not surprised by Killing of a Sacred Deer not really expanding. Movie has zero awards buzz and nonexistent mainstream appeal.

[TwoMisfits]

Ways you can tell the BO has been dead - my local 12 (which had the 1 non-allocated screen) has now thrown a 4th full screen to Thor tomorrow and my mall has given it 5+...this is practically Star 7 screen allocation without the round-the-clock showings...it has more showings per day than any super this summer (or any movie this summer)...so, it's just a question of how much it can draw b/c it has the seats for an enormous opening...

[TalismanRing]

12 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Thor: 177 avg (4:50 pm)

SM: 216  avg (5:20pm) 

IT: 186 avg (4:50pm) 

WW: 125 avg (5pm)

 

I tried to get a 5:20 Thor count but Fandago keeps crashing for me

 

My guess looking at this and screen counts and sellouts $12-14m in pre-sales

 

Internal multipliers

 

GOTG2: 8.618 multi (x17m pre-sales- 7pm)

Dr. Strange: 9.05  (9.4m pre-sales - 7pm)

TDW: 12.07 (7.1m pre-sales - 8pm) 

 

 

Before this is updated and proven wrong ...

 

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

Pulse:

 

1. Thor

2. Thor 3D

3. Bad Moms

4. Thor IMAX 3D

5. Thor IMAX 2D

 

5 minutes of watching:

 

2 JL

2 Wonder

1 Coco

1 Orient Express

 

If Thor didn't count for 4  of the top 5, Lady Bird would probably be in the Top 5  

[YM!]

Wonder if Coco is selling good.