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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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MovieMan89 Global Phenomenon

MovieMan89

Posted
Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

MT.com - WiT has already made it to #2...goal by tomorrow night/Friday morning would be to somehow top BP if it wants a shot at the weekend title:)...long way to go, though...

35.7% Black Panther

11% Wrinkle in Time, A

9.4% Red Sparrow

8% Game Night

7.7% Death Wish

I don't think it needs to top BP on MT to have a shot at winning the weekend. Again, its nature as a family film gives the potential for lots of walkups. Just like you don't see Peter Rabbit in the top 5, yet it has a very good shot to be above both Game Night and Death Wish this weekend.

Edited by MovieMan89
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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I don't think it needs to top BP on MT to have a shot at winning the weekend. Again, its nature as a family film gives the potential for lots of walkups. Just like you don't see Peter Rabbit in the top 5, yet it has a very good shot to be above both Game Night and Death Wish this weekend.

Agree, but I think it has to be very close...if there's 5pts + between the movies, Black Panther (as an older film needing fewer presales) is probably taking it.

 

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted

Haven't done this in awhile, but gonna post Thursday night for my theaters for WiT...here are the current sales...

 

1st local (Cinemark)

4 showings (3 2d - 2 added today - and 1 3d) - 2d 49/110, 0/60, 0/60 for 49/230, 3d 0/110 for 49/340 Total 

 

2nd local (Regal)

2 showings (1 2d and 1 3d) - 2d 52/170, 3d 4/170 for 56/340 Total

 

Neither is part of the AMC "Buy a kid a ticket" program, so these are straight sales:)...

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MCKillswitch123 Summer Tentpole

MCKillswitch123

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

I don't think it needs to top BP on MT to have a shot at winning the weekend. Again, its nature as a family film gives the potential for lots of walkups. Just like you don't see Peter Rabbit in the top 5, yet it has a very good shot to be above both Game Night and Death Wish this weekend.

Yyyyyyeah, AWIT is not gonna win the weekend. BP is probably gonna hit 38-40M, WIT is probably looking at 35M max. Likely the 30-33 range of many of the previous Disney live-action fresh attempts.

Edited by MCKillswitch123
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Eric Prime Global Phenomenon

Eric Prime

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Wrinkle in Time 499 1582 31.54%
Strangers 9 1672 0.54%
Tomb Raider 8 1560 0.51%

 

No huge boost for any of these movies but they're all still chugging along swimmingly.

Wrinkle in Time 606 1582 38.31%
Strangers 41 1672 2.45%
Tomb Raider 11 1560 0.71%

 

I might be able to do another update tomorrow, but in case I don't....

 

Comps for Wrinkle:

107% of Wonder ($29.4M)

473% of Showman's 3-Day ($41.7M)

396% of Paddington 2's 3-Day ($43.6M)

179% of Peter Rabbit ($44.7M)

 

Comps for Strangers:

69% of Happy Death Day ($18.1M)

53% of Insidious 4 ($15.5M)

124% of Winchester ($11.6M)

137% of Annihilation ($15.1M)

 

The stuff for Wrinkle sounds amazing, but the one thing I will always emphasize is that my theater is heavily skewed towards black-led movies and a good chunk of its customers are African-American, so those high presales can and should be taken with some grains of salt.

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Wrinkle in Time 606 1582 38.31%
Strangers 41 1672 2.45%
Tomb Raider 11 1560 0.71%

 

I might be able to do another update tomorrow, but in case I don't....

 

Comps for Wrinkle:

107% of Wonder ($29.4M)

473% of Showman's 3-Day ($41.7M)

396% of Paddington 2's 3-Day ($43.6M)

179% of Peter Rabbit ($44.7M)

 

Comps for Strangers:

69% of Happy Death Day ($18.1M)

53% of Insidious 4 ($15.5M)

124% of Winchester ($11.6M)

137% of Annihilation ($15.1M)

 

The stuff for Wrinkle sounds amazing, but the one thing I will always emphasize is that my theater is heavily skewed towards black-led movies and a good chunk of its customers are African-American, so those high presales can and should be taken with some grains of salt.

In that case, the Wonder comparison is probably more apt given that had strong presales.

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WrathOfHan Cinematic Universe

WrathOfHan

Posted
Posted (edited)

With Gringo and Hurricane Heist tracking at 3-4M, I'm going to do some stats with my theater. They are getting the 3rd and 2nd smallest auditoriums respectively, which is always a sign something will bomb here. I somewhat mentioned this recently, but here's some data on movies that debuted in my theater's four smallest screens:

 

The Resurrection of Gavin Stone: 1.2M

Gold: 3.5M

Rock Dog: 3.7M

Born in China: 4.8M

Friend Request: 2M 

Father Figures: 3.3M

Early Man: 3.2M

Every Day: 3M

 

Average: 3.1M

Average with Born in China removed: 2.8M

Average with Gavin Stone removed: 3.4M (removing both leads to the same initial average)

 

Honestly, I think Gringo is gonna go sub-3M. Game Night is still going to be over 6M, and chances are Jumanji will be ahead of it too. Hurricane Heist might limp over 3M, but matching Friend Request's 2M isn't off the table either :hahaha: 

Edited by WrathOfHan
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filmlover Cinematic Universe

filmlover

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

With Gringo and Hurricane Heist tracking at 3-4M, I'm going to do some stats with my theater. They are getting the 3rd and 2nd smallest auditoriums respectively, which is always a sign something will bomb here. I somewhat mentioned this recently, but here's some data on movies that debuted in my theater's four smallest screens:

 

The Resurrection of Gavin Stone: 1.2M

Gold: 3.5M

Rock Dog: 3.7M

Born in China: 4.8M

Friend Request: 2M 

Father Figures: 3.3M

Early Man: 3.2M

Every Day: 3M

 

Average: 3.1M

Average with Born in China removed: 2.8M

Average with Gavin Stone removed: 3.4M (removing both leads to the same initial average)

 

Honestly, I think Gringo is gonna go sub-3M. Game Night is still going to be over 6M, and chances are Jumanji will be ahead of it too. Hurricane Heist might limp over 3M, but matching Friend Request's 2M isn't off the table either :hahaha: 

Hurricane Heist and Gringo are actually getting two of the larger auditoriums at my theater. Strangers and Thoroughbreds are being relegated to among the smallest ones; it would be nice if the latter didn't completely flop.

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KP1025 Box Office Gold

KP1025

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:

Hopefully like Greatest Showman and Peter Rabbit, family audiences will still flock to see Wrinkle in Time!! Great to see presages strong!

It does seem family films are relatively immune to the effects of a negative RT score. Peter Rabbit is a month old now, so families are probably itching for a new film to see in theaters.

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Fancyarcher Global Phenomenon

Fancyarcher

Posted
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, DAJK said:

WiT's sales are surprisingly strong :o

I'm not surprised. The book its based off is still popular, and also in continuous print, and there hasn't been a real family film in a while. Wouldn't surprise me at all if it opened with around 36m at this point. 

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RRA Box Office Gold

RRA

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Fancyarcher said:

I'm not surprised. The book its based off is still popular, and also in continuous print, and there hasn't been a real family film in a while. Wouldn't surprise me at all if it opened with around 36m at this point. 

Plus....Disney. Granted that brand isn't always an ATM, but usually it is. 

 

 

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