The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Sheikh]

8 hours ago, el sid said:

And MT:

#1 BP 25.8%

#2 A Wrinkle in Time 20.9%
#3 Peter Rabbit 5.7%
#4 Red Sparrow 5.7%
#5 I Can Only Imagine 5.4%

I've done a quick Google Search looking into this I Can Only Imagine movie. There are free shows going on:

 

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/i-can-only-imagine-free-movie-screening-tickets-43629924278#

 

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/wavas-i-can-only-imagine-free-screening-tickets-43701791234#

 

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/i-can-only-imagine-free-advance-screening-presented-by-kfax-am-1100-tickets-43629250262

 

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/i-can-only-imagine-free-movie-screening-tickets-43618919362

 

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/join-us-for-free-for-the-pre-screening-of-i-can-only-imagine-it-will-change-your-life-tickets-44002096455

 

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/free-movie-premiere-i-can-only-imagine-tickets-43466339993

 

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/i-can-only-imagine-free-movie-screening-with-oneascent-tickets-44040860399

 

http://www.christchurchsl.org/event/free-movie-viewing/

 

https://www.southeastchristian.org/events/i-can-only-imagine/

 

I am not based the North America, so I don't know, but it seems this is some sort of Event Movie for Christian Faith Groups, and they are buying up tickets for shows. Can anyone confirm if this is occurring across the country?

 

Could this explain why it is appearing on ticket tracking?

 

Some of these shows are on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, but the movie doesn't release until Friday. These are free shows, but someone has to pay for the tickets right? Would this be at full value or discount, and would this money be included in the Opening Weekend?

[dxmatrixdt]

no estimated theater counts yet for I Can Only Imagine.  I am assuming that and 7 Days in Entebbe will combine for 2k Theater counts. then Love, Simon and Tomb Raider combining for 6k+

 

Does anyone think the week after will have something taken from the schedule?

Midnight Sun has been moved around a lot and was filmed years ago.

Unsane was just added recently I think.

Paul, Apostle of Christ should get a good release.

Sherlock Gnomes and Pacific Rim 2 will take up like 8,000 screens.

 

those two weeks will add over 20,000 theater counts if everything gets a wide release.

[WrathOfHan]

2 hours ago, Thematrixfilm said:

no estimated theater counts yet for I Can Only Imagine.  I am assuming that and 7 Days in Entebbe will combine for 2k Theater counts. then Love, Simon and Tomb Raider combining for 6k+

 

Does anyone think the week after will have something taken from the schedule?

Midnight Sun has been moved around a lot and was filmed years ago.

Unsane was just added recently I think.

Paul, Apostle of Christ should get a good release.

Sherlock Gnomes and Pacific Rim 2 will take up like 8,000 screens.

 

those two weeks will add over 20,000 theater counts if everything gets a wide release.

This is what BOP has for next week:

 

Pacific Rim: 3,200

Gnomes: 3,200

Paul: 2,900

Unsane: 2,400

Midnight Sun: 2,000

[TwoMisfits]

MT.com morning - Imagine still there to start cheap Tuesday, but I gotta think it's dropping soon.  Slambros would be a genius if this is actually the biggest new opener this weekend:)...

25.9% Black Panther

20.6% Wrinkle in Time, A

6.1% Peter Rabbit

5.7% Red Sparrow

5.4% I Can Only Imagine

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

Tomb Raider not on movietickets yet?

[el sid]

1 hour ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Tomb Raider not on movietickets yet?

No, but it still has a lot of time.

MT looks almost the same at the moment:

#1 BP 25.8%
#2 Wrinkle 20.6%
#3 ICOI 5.7% - that it even increased could speak for the mentioned free shows or ...
#4 Red Sparrow 5.7%
#5 Peter Rabbit 5.7%

[ChrisTelclear]

1 hour ago, el sid said:

No, but it still has a lot of time.

MT looks almost the same at the moment:

#1 BP 25.8%
#2 Wrinkle 20.6%
#3 ICOI 5.7% - that it even increased could speak for the mentioned free shows or ...
#4 Red Sparrow 5.7%
#5 Peter Rabbit 5.7%

Latest

#1 BP 25.7%
#2 Wrinkle 20.3%
#3 Red Sparrow 6.2%
#4 Peter Rabbit 5.7%

#5 ICOI 5.5% - that was a quick fade  What's the story with this?  Free previews?

Edited March 13, 2018 by ChrisTelclear

[Eric the Minion]

On 3/7/2018 at 6:06 PM, CoolEric258 said:

Wrinkle in Time	606	1582	38.31%
Strangers	41	1672	2.45%
Tomb Raider	11	1560	0.71%

Tomb Raider	55	1560	2.82%
Ready Player One	63	1866	3.38%

 

Both are doing pretty whatever at the moment. Also my theater isn't getting Love, Simon. Considering it's a 10-minute drive away from a university with a huge LGBT community, either the managers have no idea what they're doing, or the movie's tracking is just that terrible. Probably the latter.

[dxmatrixdt]

why is Love, Simon supposed to blow up when all the other LGBT movies (including award season sweepers) make less than 30 million?

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

why is Love, Simon supposed to blow up when all the other LGBT movies (including award season sweepers) make less than 30 million?

Some thought it could because the marketing made it look more like some mainstream movies that did blow up in the pass looked like than most of the other LGBT movies since Brokeback Mountain (that were often closer to arthouse fare).

[filmlover]

My theater is getting 7 Days in Entebbe on two screens. Something tells me that will be a mistake.

[TwoMisfits]

MT.com - ICOI FINALLY dropped off for the day...it had a long run today, so it may make a reappearance tomorrow...it will be a bad sign for the other 2 big openers if they can't jump on tomorrow in front of it...

25.5% Black Panther

20.5% Wrinkle in Time, A

6.1% Red Sparrow

5.4% Game Night

5.2% Strangers: Prey at Night, The

[MovieMan89]

Not a good sign TR hasn't shown up with only two days to go. It's the kind of movie that should be frontloaded/pre-sale heavy. 

[WrathOfHan]

I Can Only Imagine got upgraded to the biggest auditorium at my theater  

[WrathOfHan]

Hell, there's a group sellout on Sunday in the early afternoon. Ughhhhhh if this shit prevents Isle of Dogs from expanding in a few weeks

[WrathOfHan]

On 3/6/2018 at 4:10 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Annihilation, Every Day, and Fifty Shades Freed are gone.

 

A Wrinkle in Time: 7 (4 2D/3 3D; Biggest and Average)

Gringo: 4 (3rd Smallest)

The Hurricane Heist: 4 (2nd Smallest)

Strangers: Prey at Night: 4 (Average)

 

Black Panther: 7 (Down 7; 4 2D/3 3D; Average x2 and 4th Smallest)

Death Wish: 4 (Flat; 2nd Biggest)

Game Night: 4 (Flat; 4th Smallest and Smallest)

Peter Rabbit: 4 (Flat; Average)

Red Sparrow: 4 (Flat; Average)

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle: 3 (Down 1 and lost 3D; 4th Smallest and Smallest)

 

During the weekend, one of Black Panther's screens is in the second biggest auditorium instead of Death Wish.

 

Auditorium sizes for reference (all seats are recliners if you're wondering why they're small):  

  Hide contents

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

Nothing is gone.

 

Love, Simon: 6 (Average)

I Can Only Imagine: 5 (Biggest)

Tomb Raider: 5 (2 2D/3 3D; 2nd Biggest)

 

A Wrinkle in Time: 9 (Up 2; 7 2D/2 3D; Average x2) 

Black Panther: 5 (Down 2; 3 2D/2 3D; Average with one extra show at night stolen from Game Night)

Death Wish: 5 (Up 1; 2nd Smallest and Smallest)

Red Sparrow: 5 (Up 1; 2nd Smallest and Smallest)

Strangers: Prey at Night: 5 (Up 1; Average)

Game Night: 3 (Down 1; Average)

Gringo: 3 (Down 1; 3rd Smallest)

Peter Rabbit: 3 (Down 1; 4th Smallest)

The Hurricane Heist: 2 (Down 2; 3rd Smallest)

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle: 2 (Flat; 4th Smallest)

 

During the weekend, I Can Only Imagine gains another screen at the expense of Strangers sharing with Gringo/Hurricane 

Any upticks in showtimes are thanks to the theater being open longer because of Spring Break.

 

Auditorium sizes for reference (all seats are recliners if you're wondering why they're small):  

Spoiler

 

Biggest: 124 seats

2nd Biggest: 113 seats

Average: 78 seats (6 auditoriums are this size)

4th Smallest: 69 seats

3rd Smallest: 67 seats

2nd Smallest: 63 seats

Smallest: 60 seats

 

 

Edited March 13, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[Hiccup23]

Love, Simon	30	312	9.6%
Tomb Raider	39	848	4.6%
I Can Only Imagine	41	156	26.3%

 

 

 Love, Simon sold 8 tickets, Tomb Raider sold 6 tickets, and I Can Only Imagine sold 23 tickets. ICOI's first showing is 100% of the film's sales Tomb Raider's first showing makes up 72% of its sales and Love, Simon's first showing makes up 53% of its sales. The results of discount Tuesday will be shown tomorrow. 

 

If sales keep at their current pace

 

-ICOI- 85-90 tickets sold for the preview showings - translate to $1.62M preview #

-TR- 50-55 tickets sold for the preview showings-  translate to $.675 preview #

LS- 45-50 tickets sold for the preview showings - translate to $.555 preview #

 

I am guessing TR and LS will surge and ICOI will drop off. ICOI's number is inflated likely because I am in the Midwest. 

[TwoMisfits]

On 3/6/2018 at 6:55 PM, TwoMisfits said:

I haven't posted in a few weeks, but my 1st local (Cinemark) is up.  Big news here is it's only booking WiT and 2 foreign films (on a split screen), so it can keep BP on 3 screens and Jumanji and Rabbit each with 1...here's the set...

 

NEW

Wrinkle in Time (2 - 11 showings - 7 2d, 4 3d)

Ye Matram Vesave (.5 - 2 showings)

Sonu Ke Titu...(.5 - 2 showings)

 

RETURNING

Black Panther (3 - 15 showings - all 2d)

Death Wish (1)

Red Sparrow (1)

Game Night (1)

Annihilation (1)

Peter Rabbit (1)

Jumanji (1)

 

DROPPED

50 Shades (everything else had already been dropped in previous weeks:)...

 

So, 1st local (Cinemark) is up, and it seems like they were paying attention to MT.com...after not having ICOI in any presales for the weekend, it has decided to book it last minute (the local I was posting that had this movie was a Cinemark, so they must have chatted about how well that one's presales were doing)...now, they hedged their bets and put it in one of their smallest theaters, but I didn't think it was getting it at all, so...anyway here's the rest of the set...BIG clear out week...

 

NEW

ICOI (1 - 5 showings - smallest size)

Love Simon (1 - 5 showings - smallest size)

Tomb Raider (2 - 10 showings - 2 3d/8 2d - biggest and above average size - this will either be smart, or a big mistake - stay tuned:)

Kirrak Party (1 - 4 showings - smallest size)

Raid (1 - 4 showings - smallest size)

 

Returning

AWIT (2 - 2 3d/ 8 2d)

Black Panther (2 - 10 showings - all 2d) - lost a screen

Game Night (1)

Peter Rabbit (.8)

Annihilation (.2 - single showing on PR screen)

 

Gone

Death Wish, Red Sparrow, Jumanji, 2 previous foreign films

[Morieris]

We not only have Love, Simon at 2/3 of our theaters (So whoo hoo I want to see it on Sunday), the biggest surprise is that we STILL have Hurricane Heist.

 

I totally expected that to be gone...huh, how about that.

[YLF]

7 hours ago, Thematrixfilm said:

why is Love, Simon supposed to blow up when all the other LGBT movies (including award season sweepers) make less than 30 million?

Most of the other ones aren't mainstream movies. This one is supposed to be mainstream and appeal to everyone to show whether or not gay films can be viable in the box office.