The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Lordmandeep]

As of now I am seeing Deadpool opening below 150 million for now but should clear 340 million though. 

[Thrylos 7]

26 minutes ago, Nova said:

Who said it's amazing? We are reporting when it took over and it's percentages so we have comps  for the future. 

 

Not every film is going to be IW or BP and the reality is most of them are going to be like Deadpool 2 so yea it's nice to have future comps. 

The celebrating tone of many posts as if something extraordinary has happened.

[Hades]

1 hour ago, Nova said:

Who said it's amazing? We are reporting when it took over and it's percentages so we have comps  for the future. 

 

Not every film is going to be IW or BP and the reality is most of them are going to be like Deadpool 2 so yea it's nice to have future comps. 

They are just upset Deadpool is about to cut Avengers legs. Apparently Avengers has not made enough and no one else is allowed to make money anymore. 

[Nova]

3 hours ago, Thrylos 7 said:

The celebrating tone of many posts as if something extraordinary has happened.

Who is celebrating? And even if folks were celebrating are they not allowed to see a movie that they want to do well, start to pick up in presales? 

[Nova]

1 hour ago, Hades said:

They are just upset Deadpool is about to cut Avengers legs. Apparently Avengers has not made enough and no one else is allowed to make money anymore. 

That's so stupid and if people honestly think like this then they need help. 

[Hades]

7 minutes ago, Nova said:

That's so stupid and if people honestly think like this then they need help. 

You would think the hardcore fans of the biggest franchise on earth would be less insecure....

[Sam]

13 hours ago, narniadis said:

All of this is still pointing to me at the first 130m~ tracking being right. There is precedence for 2nd films to not do as well, but thats normally in the legs department (Ultron being an exception of course)

 

I would be uneasy about calling 150m guaranteed at this point but you never know with an "R" film - also, I think everyone tends to forget just how much Valentines / Presidents Day boosted the OW for Deadpool 1

 

13 hours ago, narniadis said:

Heres a Hypothetical for yall...

 

Deadpool had a gross on OW of 132m....

 

F47.3

S42.5

S42.5 - VALENTINES

M19 - President's Day - HUGE Boost

 

With a regular weekend set up and accounting for some spill-over

F47.3

S42.5

S34.006 (-20%) = 123,849,000

M11,559 (-65%) and so on

 

There was nearly 20m in funds that wont be available this go around due to the boost of the holidays. A Natural Sequel like growth would say that 130-140 for an R rated property is probably right in line with expectations....

 

Needs at least 55m on OD to have a hope of 140m+

Great analysis.

 

A quick look at theaters near me also had me doubt the 150M prospect. 

 

Obviously things can change with major walk-ups business, but my main point of comparisons for DP2 is GOTG2, so the walk-up factor already accounted for. And so far, at least in my area, DP2 presales look to be below GOTG2.

 

I think EmpireCity said somewhere tracking for DP2 is currently pointing to around 135M. That could very well be spot-on.

[WrathOfHan]

Full showtimes are up for Thursday at my AMC; Deadpool is getting 5 shows at the expense of two IW screens, A Quiet Place, I Feel Pretty, and Truth or Dare. Overboard and Rampage still have full showtimes, so I can see their night shows being cancelled if necessary

Edited May 15, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[DAJK]

Yes but it’s a long weekend in Canada so there’s your extra 20M  

[TalismanRing]

I haven't done an in depth look at NYC theaters on Fandango but some info

 

It was at 310 showings on Sunday but accelerated to 372 this afternoon

 

Comsp:  GOTG 2 finished with 348, JL - 345 (it had a lot early),  SM:HC -320, Thor: R - 313, BP - 449, CW - 459 and AIW - 661

 

Looking at two biggest theaters and they're oddly different so far. 

 

AMC EMPIRE 25 has 28 shows (with 3 shaded sellouts) compared to the final totals of 27 for CW, 4 for GOTG2, 13 for SM:HC, 16 for WW & T:R, 18 for BP and 51 for AIW

 

Lincoln Center IMAX so far strangely only has 4 showings and more oddly only 2 in the IMAX starting at  9:30pm and 12:25pm.  They usually have an additional 7pm showing and maybe later add a 2am but they haven't assigned those times to anything on Thur - looks like a wait and see.    By opening  CW: 13, GOTG2: 7, T:R - 9 , SM:HC , WW & JL: 7,  BP: 10, AIW - 19

 

 

[Lordmandeep]

From what I can see IW is keeping one of the Premium screens at my local theatre. 

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Thrylos 7 said:

The celebrating tone of many posts as if something extraordinary has happened.

Extraordinary would have been if it had done it during the weekend where IW made 60m.  

 

Now I will admit to strutting VERY slightly for being bang on a prediction (for once ). But I like to think I'm allowed to be slightly happy a prediction/projection actually happened.

 

===

 

As it is, and I think even @Nova realizes this, I'm not actually that big of a fan of Deadpool.  But I do like seeing films do well, and I think providing context for other up and coming films (now and in the future) is important.  That's pretty much it.

[Rebeccas]

22 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

I haven't done an in depth look at NYC theaters on Fandango but some info

 

It was at 310 showings on Sunday but accelerated to 372 this afternoon

 

Comsp:  GOTG 2 finished with 348, JL - 345 (it had a lot early),  SM:HC -320, Thor: R - 313, BP - 449, CW - 459 and AIW - 661

 

Looking at two biggest theaters and they're oddly different so far. 

 

AMC EMPIRE 25 has 28 shows (with 3 shaded sellouts) compared to the final totals of 27 for CW, 4 for GOTG2, 13 for SM:HC, 16 for WW & T:R, 18 for BP and 51 for AIW

 

Lincoln Center IMAX so far strangely only has 4 showings and more oddly only 2 in the IMAX starting at  9:30pm and 12:25pm.  They usually have an additional 7pm showing and maybe later add a 2am but they haven't assigned those times to anything on Thur - looks like a wait and see.    By opening  CW: 13, GOTG2: 7, T:R - 9 , SM:HC , WW & JL: 7,  BP: 10, AIW - 19

 

 

AMC Lincoln Sw IMAX is huuuuge for Infinity War (its literally close to capacity almost every showing), I actually wonder if they might keep a few showtimes for it.

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

Any chance SOLO gets to second place by Saturday? Star Wars is pre-sale heavy and reviews are coming tonight I think.

I would be surprised, personally.  Happy, but surprised.

 

For reasons that don't need to be hashed out in this thread (again ), Solo is acting more like a Marvel movie than a SW one when it comes to presales.  I suppose it might depend on just how strong the second place films are after DP2 though.   

 

Just have to see, I suppose.

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Rebeccas said:

AMC Lincoln Sw IMAX is huuuuge for Infinity War (its literally close to capacity almost every showing), I actually wonder if they might keep a few showtimes for it.

Yeah, I think that's what they're debating especially since the 9:30 DP2 showing looks only about 70% full if that and very few seats have been sold for the 12:25am showing.

[grim22]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

I would be surprised, personally.  Happy, but surprised.

 

For reasons that don't need to be hashed out in this thread (again ), Solo is acting more like a Marvel movie than a SW one when it comes to presales.  I suppose it might depend on just how strong the second place films are after DP2 though.   

 

Just have to see, I suppose.

What if it has presales like a Marvel movie then behaves like a Star Wars movie though

 

[Poseidon]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

 Solo is acting more like a Marvel movie than a SW one when it comes to presales.  I suppose it might depend on just how strong the second place films are after DP2 though.   

 

 

And what, if it behaves exactly like a SW movie?

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, grim22 said:

What if it has presales like a Marvel movie then behaves like a Star Wars movie though

 

It'll have that 130 3day OW I've been prediciting since almost forever.

 

(note I have not done the math from Previews to Opening Weekend but I've long suspected Solo would have about 75% of the 29m previews that R1 had, which would be 21.75m.  Thus anything around 21m to 23m wouldn't surprise me)

1 minute ago, Poseidon said:

And what, if it behaves exactly like a SW movie?

It'll make a lot of money then?  Works for me.

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

And what, if it behaves exactly like a SW movie?

Walk - uos

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

It'll have that 130 3day OW I've been prediciting since almost forever.

 

(note I have not done the math from Previews to Opening Weekend but I've long suspected Solo would have about 75% of the 29m previews that R1 had, which would be 21.75m.  Thus anything around 21m to 23m wouldn't surprise me)

It'll make a lot of money then?  Works for me.

If it has a RO like multiplier - easily the best of the rest bunch  that's about a $115m 3 day