The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

Summer hours have begun at my AMC. However, they aren't long hour extensions like last summer; the last showtimes are starting at 9:30 instead of past 10 like last year.

 

btw, they are going to be in for a ruuuuuuuuuuude awakening by putting IW in their smallest auditorium  I guess keeping 3D around was really important, huh?

Edited May 22, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[filmlover]

My theater is doing Illumination Week (a four-feature showing of the first Despicable Me from 2010, The Lorax, The Secret Life of Pets, and Sing) starting this weekend. LMAO talk about trolling BOT hard. My guess is this was just announced for certain theaters.

[AndyLL]

49 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

As it stands, this movie is going to have to be exceedingly more walk up driven to hit those $140-170m 4 day projections,.

Here in Colorado this week is finals week for middle/high schools.  I assume this is true for most schools. ( @Rthanos ? )

 

In our case that means we're not seeing this on Thursday night for the 1st time in forever for a SW film.  If we were not doing AMC Dolby we likely would not have already bought tickets for OW.  

 

There is no doubt there is not the 'must see on OW so buy tickets now' for Solo as there has been for other SW movies.  However I do think if WOM is good there will be significant walk-ups over the weekend.

[The Panda]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Summer hours have begun at my AMC. However, they aren't long hour extensions like last summer; the last showtimes are starting at 9:30 instead of past 10 like last year.

 

btw, they are going to be in for a ruuuuuuuuuuude awakening by putting IW in their smallest auditorium  I guess keeping 3D around was really important, huh?

Latest starting at 9:30pm?

 

Even our smaller town theaters have 11 or 12 late shows

[WrathOfHan]

45 minutes ago, Auteur Panda said:

Latest starting at 9:30pm?

 

Even our smaller town theaters have 11 or 12 late shows

It's probably mandated by the mall its in. Even then, the market for showings that late on a weekday is veeeeeeeeeery small here because of how older-skewing the area is.

[Stewart]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

It's probably mandated by the mall its in. Even then, the market for showings that late on a weekday is veeeeeeeeeery small here because of how older-skewing the area is.

No point having showings past 10 when all them old folk are asleep by 9pm right? 

[TwoMisfits]

On 5/15/2018 at 11:39 PM, TwoMisfits said:

So, still way busy, but it's another tentpole weekend, so here's my 2nd local (Regal) - surprisingly the Cinemark is very slow this weekend to set, but here's how Regal sees it...

 

NEW

Deadpool 2 (3 - 15 showings) (this is less than every opening super set for the past 6-8 months - this is a supers selling, 12-45 aged male theater, so I'm surprised it didn't get the norm 4 screen set that each supers movie since at least Thor 3 has gotten)

Book Club (1 - 5 showings)

Show Dogs (1 - 5 showings)

 

Returning

Breaking In (1)

Life of the Party (1)

Overboard (1)

Avengers IW (2)

A Quiet Place (1 - this movie's continued popularity probably kept Deadpool from the 4th screen)

I Feel Pretty/Rampage (1 - each get 2 showings)

 

Gone

Everything else (I'd check, but you know:)...

So, 2nd local (Regal) is set - Solo has gotten Deadpool's same eventual set of 4 screens/20 showings (Deadpool got a 4th screen late Thursday - this time, the screen is already there).  It's another blood bath for holdovers...here's the set...

 

NEW 

Solo (4 - 20 showings - 10 3d/ 10 2d)

 

RETURNING

Deadpool (3)

Book Club (1)

Show Dogs (.8 - last show stolen)

Breaking In (.6 - last 2 shows stolen)

Life of the Party (.5 - last 3 shows stolen)

A Quiet Place (.4 - last 2 shows in Breaking In's screen)

Avengers (1.7 - gets all the prime and late shows taken from SD and LOTP, plus its own screen)

 

Gone

Everything Else

 

And Thursday set for Solo is only 6 shows (1 more than it was before) - this is the shocker to me - it's got 1 fan show, 3 2d, and 2 3d at this point, so it's added almost nothing more...and it's Tuesday night...I gotta think they are gonna find more, but maybe not...if this doesn't get to 9-10 showings, min, at this theater (which is ideal for this type of movie), that's a bad sign...

 

 

[Mojoguy]

MT

DP2 49.4%
Solo 14.2%
IW 9.4%
Book 8.4%
Life 2.8%


Shouldn't Solo be higher?

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

MT

DP2 49.4%
Solo 14.2%
IW 9.4%
Book 8.4%
Life 2.8%


Shouldn't Solo be higher?

Not when Deadpool 2 just had a $12M Monday and it's discount Tuesday today. 

[Nova]

Solo will eventually take the crown on MT and when it does it most likely won't be some staggering percentage because well it's competing with one movie set to make $50M-$60M for MDW, another film that's set to make $20M and we all know the old folks are gonna turn up for the Book Club. 

 

Unless you have a film that had that kind of competition, MT is kinda pointless in trying to gauge what a movie is going to do. It's usually good if you have a film that you can compare the opening film to. I'm not sure a film has been put in Solo's position before in the history of MT. 

 

I think the Fandango tracker is way better because it at least gives you an idea of how many sets of tickets are being sold. With MT it's more of a guessing game. 

 

*But it's nice to keep track of the data just in case in the future we have a similar situation to what we had this year. 

Edited May 23, 2018 by Nova

[Biggestgeekever]

Mojo has updated Solo's theater count estimate to 4,380+

[WrathOfHan]

Upgrade's TC next week has been upgraded to 1,400.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Mojo has updated Solo's theater count estimate to 4,380+

That makes it easily the highest theater count for a SW film:

On 5/17/2018 at 3:58 PM, Porthos said:

As for Solo, preliminary TCs for the other Disney-era SW films, with the final in parentheses:

 

TFA: 3,900 (4,134)

R1:  4,000 (4,157)

TLJ: 4,100 (4,232)

Solo: 4,200 (???)

 

Suspect the screen crunch going on with DP2 and a still very successful IW is causing Disney to expand the playing field a bit more than the other three films.

 

 

Also puts it in the Top Five for widest release ever:

 

Quote

Rank&	Title (click to view)	Studio	Theaters	Opening**	% of Total	Average	Total Gross^	Date**
1	Despicable Me 3	Uni.	4,529	$72,434,025	27.4%	$15,993	$264,624,300	6/30/17
2	Avengers: Infinity War	BV	4,474	$257,698,183	43.1%	$57,599	$598,521,956	4/27/18
3	The Twilight Saga: Eclipse	Sum.	4,468	$64,832,191	21.6%	$14,510	$300,531,751	6/30/10
4	The Dark Knight Rises	WB	4,404	$160,887,295	35.9%	$36,532	$448,139,099	7/20/12
5	Iron Man 2	Par.	4,380	$128,122,480	41.0%	$29,252	$312,433,331	5/07/10
6	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	4,375	$169,189,427	44.4%	$38,672	$381,011,219	7/15/11
7	The Secret Life of Pets	Uni.	4,370	$104,352,905	28.3%	$23,879	$368,384,330	7/08/16
8	The Dark Knight	WB	4,366	$158,411,483	29.7%	$36,283	$533,345,358	7/18/08
9	Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End	BV	4,362	$114,732,820	37.1%	$26,302	$309,420,425	5/25/07
10	Shrek Forever After	P/DW	4,359	$70,838,207	29.7%	$16,251	$238,736,787	5/21/10

Almost certainly because of the current screen crunch going on.

 

In fact, given that, I'm a teeny bit surprised it didn't pull a DP2/Rampage locally and go for "competing theaters" to try to squeeze out every screen they could.  Maybe the local theaters wouldn't play ball at the terms Disney was setting though.

[Biggestgeekever]

The all time theater count list always reminds me that Twilight somehow held that record for seven fucking years.

Edited May 23, 2018 by Biggestgeekever

[dxmatrixdt]

anyone got Breaking In, Life of the Party, or Overboard loosing locations when Solo opens?

[Porthos]

Had immense trouble checking theater counts tonight as the vast majority of showings weren't showing up on Google Chrome for me over at Fandango.  For those showtimes, when I tried to check a showing, it would show the theater but refuse to pull up a seat chart to select seats. 

 

Had this happen very sporadically once before at the height of IW mania with the presales for DP2, ironically enough.  But it was only for three or four show times and it cleared up after a few days.  But I've never had a systemic problem like this before. 

 

Thankfully, I was able to get seat data by using Safari.  Don't know how many showtimes I would have had this problem on my local machine as once I hit two dozen showtimes where I wasn't able to check tickets, I threw up my  hands in frustration and went exclusively with Safari.

 

I presume this is something on my end and Google Chrome choking on something in the cache.  But it's damn irritating.  

 

Anyway, seat report in a couple of minutes. 

Edited May 23, 2018 by Porthos

[dxmatrixdt]

predicted theater counts.  # of weeks in release in bold

Spoiler

(new) - Solo - 4,400 - (1)

(n.c.) - DP2 - 4,349 - (2)

(-400) - IW - 3,602 - (5)

(n.c.) - Book - 2,781 - (2)

(-600) - Party - 3,056 - (3)

(-500) - Break - 2,037 - (3)

(n.c.) - Show D - 3,212 - (2)

(-700) - AQP - 1,627 - (8)

(-600) - Overboard-  1,220 - (4)

(-600) - Rampage - 866 - (7)

(-800) - Pretty - 705 - (6)

(-400) - BP - 535 - (15)

(-270) - Tully - 300 - (4)

 

(-189) - Blockers - 250 - (8)

(-138) - RP1 - 250 - (9)

(-169) - Sherlock - 250 - 169

(-88) - Isle of Dogs - 200 - (10) *7th week since expanding +1,385

(-30) - Wrinkle Time - 200 - (12)

(-74) - Imagine - 200 - (11)

(-200) - Truth or Dare - 180 - (7)

(-30) - Chappaquiddick - 120 - (8)

(-45) - Tomb Raider - 89 - (11)

(-45) - Peter Rabbit - 100 - (16)

 

[Porthos]

Solo: A Star Wars Story GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-2 Days and counting  

 

Sellouts: 

1/135 (+0/+32) [R1: 14/143]

 

2D:  0/99 (+0/+24) [R1: 12/97]

3D:  0/36 (+0/+8) [R1: 2/46]

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 107 showings [+10) [R1: 48]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

2 (nc) [R1: 5]

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

2 (+1) [R1: 5]

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

15 (+1) [R1: 26]

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

2 (nc) [R1: 0]

 

Weekend Showings

Fr:   0/278 (+0/+75)

St:   0/278 (+0/+73)

Su:  0/275 (+0/+74)

Mo: 0/261 (+0/+70)

 

---

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (107/135 showings [+26/+32]):

100%:      1 (nc)

90-99%:   4 (+1)

80-89%:   6 (nc)

70-79%:   9 (-1)

60-69%:   7 (+2)

50-59%:   9 (+3)

40-49%:   4 (-3)

30-39%:   5 (+1)

20-29%:   6 (-3)

10-19%:   7 (+1)

0-9%:     49 (+25)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	135	8879	13380	33.64%

 

Total Shows Added Today:      32 (6 non reserved)

Total Seat Added Today:     2370
Total Seats Sold Today:        236

----

.4169x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 3 days before release. (IW had 21 more days of pre-sales)
.8526x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 3 days before release. (BP had 18 more days of pre-sales)
.8836x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2* 3 days before release. (DP2 had two [or so] more days of pre-sales)

[grim22]

Since all theaters have declared showtimes

 

Preview sellout update for Solo in the LA area:

3 sellouts  / 503 showtimes 

 

Comps

CA3 22 sellouts / 607 showtimes

BVS had 34 sellouts / 578 showtimes

ULTRON had 28 sellouts / 700 showtimes

SUICIDE SQUAD was 41 sellouts / 455 showtimes

MOCKINGJAY 1 21 sellouts / 435 showtimes

FURIOUS 7 had 55 sellouts / 471 showtimes (skewed way too much towards LA so not exactly a great comp)

MAN OF STEEL had 48 sellouts / 220 showtimes (midnights only)

ROGUE ONE 69 sellouts / 658 showtimes

GUARDIANS 2 14 sellouts / 453 showtimes

APOCALYPSE: 13 Sellouts / 295 Showtimes (on Monday)

ALICE 2: 0 Sellouts / 235 showtimes (on Monday)

F8: 335 showtimes / 12 sellouts

PIRATES 5 0 sellouts / 265 showtimes

 

[YLF]

12 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Since all theaters have declared showtimes

 

Preview sellout update for Solo in the LA area:

3 sellouts  / 503 showtimes 

 

Comps

CA3 22 sellouts / 607 showtimes

BVS had 34 sellouts / 578 showtimes

ULTRON had 28 sellouts / 700 showtimes

SUICIDE SQUAD was 41 sellouts / 455 showtimes

MOCKINGJAY 1 21 sellouts / 435 showtimes

FURIOUS 7 had 55 sellouts / 471 showtimes (skewed way too much towards LA so not exactly a great comp)

MAN OF STEEL had 48 sellouts / 220 showtimes (midnights only)

ROGUE ONE 69 sellouts / 658 showtimes

GUARDIANS 2 14 sellouts / 453 showtimes

APOCALYPSE: 13 Sellouts / 295 Showtimes (on Monday)

ALICE 2: 0 Sellouts / 235 showtimes (on Monday)

F8: 335 showtimes / 12 sellouts

PIRATES 5 0 sellouts / 265 showtimes

 

Its behind freaking apocalypse omg