The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Mojoguy]

So Incredibles 2 and JW2 are going to "save" this summer since IW doesn't count as a summer film with it opening in April.

[Eric Prime]

3 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Are they comps at the same point in time or of the final presales for the other films?

 

Either way, the best comp on there is likely Thor, because this should have massive walkups like Marvel, but decent presales like Marvel as well.

 

If that's the final presales of Thor3, then holy shit when do we call $200m OW predictions??? (Unless your theatre is majorly over-performing)

I'm looking at final pre sales. I don't really archive what showtimes look like at certain points of time.

 

It should be mentioned that Thor presales at my theater seem to be pretty weak, only selling 913 tickets. Don't know how Thor was elsewhere, but it could be that my theater is an outlier for whatever reason, as I would assume a $120M+ grosser would have sold at least 1,000+ (Then again, I think I was busy during that week, so I might have forgotten to check its presales on Thursday)

 

Regardless, I feel a lot more confident in this film exceeding Dory's OW. Right now I'm thinking it opens in the $150-165M range.

[TalismanRing]

58 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I'm looking at final pre sales. I don't really archive what showtimes look like at certain points of time.

 

It should be mentioned that Thor presales at my theater seem to be pretty weak, only selling 913 tickets. Don't know how Thor was elsewhere, but it could be that my theater is an outlier for whatever reason, as I would assume a $120M+ grosser would have sold at least 1,000+ (Then again, I think I was busy during that week, so I might have forgotten to check its presales on Thursday)

 

Regardless, I feel a lot more confident in this film exceeding Dory's OW. Right now I'm thinking it opens in the $150-165M range.

In NYC Thor R pre-sales were easily ahead of JL and a bit behind SM:HC which is where previews wound up.

[Mojoguy]

Incredibles 2 is going to have way more male audience appeal than Dory.

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Incredibles 2 is going to have way more male audience appeal than Dory.

45% of Dory's $486m domestic was male - that's a lot of appeal in $$$$$ ($218m).  More than for the male lead Jungle Book which had a 48/52 male/female split ($174.7m) 

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

So Incredibles 2 and JW2 are going to "save" this summer since IW doesn't count as a summer film with it opening in April.

Neither April or May are  actually in summer.  Last week of April is just as valid as the first week of May as the kickoff to the summer season - especially when it makes more in May than any other movie.

[Arlo245]

31.6%

Incredibles 2, The

19.3%

Ocean's 8

7.7%

Solo: A Star Wars Story

7.2%

Hereditary

6.1%

Deadpool 2

[FlashMaster659]

Do we know what Dory's MT was at the time?

[Premium George]

Man, I am missing deep wangs update.

[MattW]

 

 

Monday before DM3 opened, 820pm, it was at 4.6%. 

The weekend prior did $140.8m though, while this past weekend was $119.9m. 

Still, pretty decent indicator.

[Porthos]

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-10 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	97	8507	10113	15.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:      60

 

.2088x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 10 days before release. (IW had 19 more days of pre-sales)

.5282x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 10 days before release (BP had 16 more days of pre-sales) 

.5727x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2  10 days before release (DP2 had one plus more days of pre-sales) 

.4828x as many tickets sold as Solo 10 days before release pre-sales (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to JW:FK's 22 days of presales)

[Mojoguy]

Man, I am missing deep wangs update.

Wang misses you too.

[Nova]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-10 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	97	8507	10113	15.88%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:      60

 

.2088x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 10 days before release. (IW had 19 more days of pre-sales)

.5282x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 10 days before release (BP had 16 more days of pre-sales) 

.5727x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2  10 days before release (DP2 had one plus more days of pre-sales) 

.4828x as many tickets sold as Solo 10 days before release pre-sales (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to JW:FK's 22 days of presales)

.208 of IW is 53.5M 

.528 of BP is 106.6M 

.57 of DP2 is 71M 

.48 of Solo is 40.3M 

 

*Life better find a way* 

[MrGlass2]

Updated by @akvalley: 2018-06-12 02:59:12 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2018-06-12 02:00:00	165	Incredibles 2
2018-06-12 02:00:00	52	Oceans 8
2018-06-12 02:00:00	25	Deadpool 2
2018-06-12 02:00:00	23	Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom
2018-06-12 02:00:00	23	Incredibles 2 3D
2018-06-12 02:00:00	20	Hereditary
2018-06-12 02:00:00	17	Avengers Infinity War
2018-06-12 02:00:00	16	Solo A Star Wars Story
2018-06-12 02:00:00	13	Incredibles 2 The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-06-12 02:00:00	8	Upgrade (2018)
...

2018-06-12 02:00:00	2	2001 A Space Odyssey in 70mm
2018-06-12 02:00:00	1	Monty Python and the Holy Grail
2018-06-12 02:00:00	1	Shaolin Soccer

[Porthos]

37 minutes ago, Nova said:

.208 of IW is 53.5M 

.528 of BP is 106.6M 

.57 of DP2 is 71M 

.48 of Solo is 40.3M 

 

*Life better find a way* 

 I only track Preview Night.

 

(that's not THAT much better tho )

 

Still...  JW's run was built on walkups, so we'll see.  And JW itself "only" got 18.5m in previews, so we'll see how close FK comes to that number when all is said and done.

 

 

[Stewart]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 I only track Preview Night.

 

(that's not THAT much better tho )

 

Still...  JW's run was built on walkups, so we'll see.  And JW itself "only" got 18.5m in previews, so we'll see how close FK comes to that number when all is said and done.

 

 

Perhaps you should've tracked Incredibles II instead 😂

Edited June 12, 2018 by feasby007

[DAJK]

Incredibles - 32.7%

Ocean’s 8 - 19.6%

Solo - 7.1%

Hereditary - 6.6%

Deadpool - 5.7%

 

 

Incredibles keeping a strong hold on #1 despite it being cheap Tuesday is incredibly encouraging. Also nice to see Hereditary a healthy bit ahead of Deadpool.

 

Tag should appear by tomorrow afternoon, or else I doubt high teens will happen for it.

[Stewart]

15 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Incredibles - 32.7%

Ocean’s 8 - 19.6%

Solo - 7.1%

Hereditary - 6.6%

Deadpool - 5.7%

 

 

Incredibles keeping a strong hold on #1 despite it being cheap Tuesday is incredibly encouraging. Also nice to see Hereditary a healthy bit ahead of Deadpool.

 

Tag should appear by tomorrow afternoon, or else I doubt high teens will happen for it.

This is the only comparison I can find:

 

Thursday Morning:

Finding Dory - 63%

Conjuring 2 - 6%

Now You See Me 2 - 4%

Central Intelligence - 4%

To Joey, With Love - 3%

 

The weekend before totalled $150m, with the top 5 split with 40m/24m/22m/14m/10m (total 110m). So Dory's percentage reaped $69m of the top 5.

 

This past weekend totalled $120m, with the top5 split with 42m/16m/14m/14m/7m (total 93m). So Incredibles needs to hit 74% by Thursday morning to be with a good chance to beat Dory. 

 

---

 

Some points to notice, Warcraft debuted the weekend before Dory with $24m, and that faded rather quickly, which can be seen by the fact it wasn't even top 5 on MT Thursday morning. So Incredibles 2 probably doesn't need to hit 74%.

[Porthos]

9 hours ago, feasby007 said:

Perhaps you should've tracked Incredibles II instead 😂

Heh.

 

The real reason I didn't track Inc 2 wasn't because of it's potential OW.  I think it'll do around 150 OW, if not more if all the stars align.   It's that it was an animation film and even with higher presales relative for the genre, I figured it wouldn't have been worth it to track it until close to release.  Say, 10 days or so. 

 

That and I was kinda burnt out after the IW-Solo-DP2 trifecta and didn't want to do another double dip of tracking with FK on the horizon.

[Eric Prime]

https://deadline.com/2018/06/incredibles-2-tag-superfly-weekend-box-office-preview-1202408829/

 

Quote

After the summer box office ratcheted down following the $125.5M opening of Fox’s Deadpool 2, Disney is looking to make up for any shortfall created by its Memorial Day weekend fumble Solo: A Star Wars Story with the releases of Pixar’s Incredibles 2, which is eyeing between $135M-$150M this weekend at 4,400 theaters.

 

Some tracking services have the sequel in the $125M range, but the confidence out there from rivals is that Incredibles 2 could feasibly beat Finding Dory‘s $135M opening, which is by all accounts, the current domestic record for animated pic’s opening. Like Dory, Incredibles 2 has enormous amount of legacy goodwill from fans, and its second installment has been 14 years in the waiting. It’s another executive by Pixar in mining news fans, and pulling in the die hards in family play from ages 2 to 80. Incredibles is one of those Pixar brands that appeals to not just kids, but to adults sophisticated sense of humor and sensibilities, unlike Cars which largely plays younger.

 

Incredibles 2‘s theater count is comprised of 400 IMAX screens, 650+ Premium Large Format screens, 3,000+ 3D locations, and 210 D-Box screens.  A special double feature of The Incrediblesand Incredibles 2 will play exclusively in Imax starting tomorrow starting at 6pm, with regular previews beginning Thursday at 5pm.

 

Tag, which is based on Russell Adams’ Wall Street Journal story about a group of grown men who still engage in a game of ‘You’re It’ is expected to file in the $12M-$16M range. Pic stars Jeremy Renner, Ed Helms, Jon Hamm, Jake Johnson, and Isla Fisher and reps the feature directorial debut of Jeff Tomsic whose credits include directing and being an EP on the Comedy Central series Idiotsitter. Tag will preview in over 2,900 locations on Thursday at 7PM and expand to 3,382 theaters on Friday. New Line budgets their comedies in the upper $20M range before P&A. Rotten Tomatoes hasn’t revealed their score yet.

 

Sony is getting a leg up on their Silver Pictures release Superfly tomorrow sans previews tonight. They claim it cost a reported $16M before P&A. Tracking has a $7M-$12M five-day opening spread on this pic which could file in the upper part of that range. There was an unprecedented turnaround for this film which began production in mid-January. It’s grounded in music, and is Atlanta-based as the iconic cultural center for black entertainment. Future produced and wrote the original songs for this pic which is an homage to today’s Atlanta. In Superfly, career criminal Youngblood Priest wants out of the Atlanta drug scene, but as he ramps up sales, one little slip up threatens to bring the whole operation down before he can make his exit. Pic stars Trevor Jackson, Jason Mitchell, Michael Kenneth Williams, Lex Scott Davis, and Jennifer Morrison and was written by Alex Tse.

 

Warner Bros./Village Roadshow’s Ocean’s 8 should ease 40-45% from its $41.6M opening for $23M-$25M. In the last four days, the Gary Ross all femme ensemble has grossed $46M and should see a pop today from discount Tuesday and older audiences.

 

A24’s Hereditary, which repped the NY-based distributor’s biggest opener with $13.6M, is forecasted to decline an estimated 55% with $6.1M.